Revenge of the Dreamliner

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August 11th, 2017 at 1:50:23 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
Posts: 9522
Quote: Nareed
Wide bodies on "short" transatlantic flights typically are more densely packed than JAL's. And I doubt an A321 neo LR could make it across the Pacific. but the point is taken: ULCCs are evil :)


For a widebody, I was surprised to see the top five routes by number of seats were all under 750 miles in Asia. On the other hand if you rank by number of seats, the shorter routes are bound to rank higher. Perhaps if they rated by seat miles it would be very different.





Route Q3 Q2 2017 % monthly change
Hanoi (HAN) - Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) 423908 388913 9.0%
Tokyo (HND) - Fukuoka (FUK) 252275 242810 3.9%
Tokyo (HND) - Osaka (ITM) 216470 320325 -32.4%
Tokyo (HND) - Seoul Gimpo (GMP) 200088 197784 1.2%
Tokyo (HND) - Hiroshima (HIJ) 174810 103540 68.8%
Bogota (BOG) - Madrid (MAD) 172464 170872 0.9%
London Heathrow (LHR) - Chicago (ORD) 166336 148934 11.7%
Bogota (BOG) - Santiago (CL) 137143 135408 1.3%
Tokyo (HND) - Matsuyama (MYJ) - 135340 143860 -5.9%
Doha (DOH) - Jakarta (CGK) 132334 138684 -4.6%
August 11th, 2017 at 2:13:12 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 53
Posts: 5734
Its how many sardines, how much fuel, how much take off and climbing fuel versus how much straight and level fuel. Then compare that with how long a flight and how that would impair a turnaround flight to somewhere. ULCCs don't want to fly empty seats or excess fuel but might be willing to if it gives them an additional leg to fly.
November 12th, 2017 at 2:38:53 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
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The B787-10 has a fairly limited set of orders compared to B787-8/9.
49 Singapore Airlines (no orders for B787-8/9)
30 Etihad Airways
18 EVA Air (no orders for B787-8/9)
14 United Airlines
12 British Airways
8 Air France–KLM
3 All Nippon Airways
...
25 Air Lease Corporation
8 Unidentified Customer(s)
4 GECAS

Emirates is working on an order for 40 of this variation with no orders for the two smaller variations.

If I could speculate, Emirates has started two Fifth freedom flights to the USA
Milan MXP to New York JFK
Athens to New York (EWR)

There has been a lot of concern that they may start more such flights. Alitalia has 26 wide body planes, but has been in bankruptcy for several months.Alitalia flies from Rome to BOS, LAX, MIA, JFK and seasonally to ORD.



I imagine using a B777-300ER or an A380 makes such flights, which already controversial, even more so.Perhaps the smaller 787 may be more suitable for originating such flights.
November 12th, 2017 at 2:47:30 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 344
Posts: 12473
Quote: Pacomartin
Emirates is working on an order for 40 of this variation with no orders for the two smaller variations.


According to Airways News Magazine, the order's been placed, and it includes the right to downsize at least part of it to the -9 version.

There's still much loud buzz that Emirates will also order 36-38 new A380s. But this will likely require Airbus to buy back several older A380s. I'd say that's a terrible deal, except for the alternative.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
November 12th, 2017 at 4:04:19 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
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Quote: Nareed
There's still much loud buzz that Emirates will also order 36-38 new A380s. But this will likely require Airbus to buy back several older A380s. I'd say that's a terrible deal, except for the alternative.


Emirates can control everything about that program. Airbus may be concerned about selling 36-38 new A380s, but they are also concerned about Emirates slowing down the delivery of their current orders so that production drops below one per month.

233 Airbus A380-861 A6-API Etihad Airways 24. Mar 2017 Active F-WWAK
197 Airbus A380-861 A7-APH Qatar Airways 05. May 2017 Active F-WWAS
237 Airbus A380-861 A6-APJ Etihad Airways 24. May 2017 Active F-WWAR

221 Airbus A380-861 A6-EUI Emirates 21. Feb 2017 Active F-WWAF
228 Airbus A380-842 A6-EUP Emirates 24. Mar 2017 Active F-WWSC
229 Airbus A380-842 A6-EUQ Emirates 12. May 2017 Active F-WWSF
241 Airbus A380-842 A6-EUX Emirates 28. Jul 2017 Active F-WWSG
242 Airbus A380-842 A6-EUY Emirates 29. Aug 2017 Active F-WWSX
244 Airbus A380-842 A6-EUZ Emirates 29. Sep 2017 Active F-WWAT
236 Airbus A380-842 A6-EUT Emirates 02. Nov 2017 Active F-WWAP
239 Airbus A380-842 A6-EUV Emirates 06. Nov 2017 Active F-WWSB 100th A380

243 Airbus A380-841 9V-SKU Singapore Airlines 06. Oct 2017 Stored F-WWAQ (What;s up with that?)
Is Singapore Air delaying delivery of some A380s? Are they trying to get rid of the old ones first?

Other than Emirates only 10 A380s are likely to be delivered
5 : SINGAPORE AIRLINES
2 : QATAR AIRWAYS
3 : All Nippon Airlines

It looks like SA planes are being finished but are being stored instead of delivered.
February 1st, 2018 at 7:12:03 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
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The first test of the long range A321neo (97t MTOW) was yesterday.

The 4000 nm range will equal that of the B757 but with fewer passengers. The shortest Transatlantic flight between major cities is Boston to Dublin (2600 nautical miles), so a 4,000 nm plane will fly many possible routes. Dublin also has pre-clearance for USA customs.

Airbus is studying a further increase in the A321neo's take-off weight to 100 tonnes with the help of tweaks to the existing wing and stronger landing gear, requiring more engine thrust. A second option would include a lighter and larger new wing: something that saves on engine thrust but costs more to develop.
February 1st, 2018 at 7:31:22 AM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 5
Posts: 1169
Quote: Pacomartin
The first test of the long range A321neo (97t MTOW) was yesterday. The 4000 nm range will equal that of the B757 but with fewer passengers. The shortest Transatlantic flight between major cities is Boston to Dublin (2600 nautical miles), so a 4,000 nm plane will fly many possible routes. Dublin also has pre-clearance for USA customs.


I believe Montreal to Dublin is slightly less Paco and Montreal is twice the population of Boston. Boston of course has many more people within commuting distance of it's airport.
"but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin
February 1st, 2018 at 8:03:08 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
Posts: 9522
Quote: kenarman
I believe Montreal to Dublin is slightly less Paco and Montreal is twice the population of Boston. Boston of course has many more people within commuting distance of it's airport.

Boston, San Francisco, Miami, Anaheim, Washington DC, East St Louis all have very small areas in the incorporated cities.

It looks like you are correct by 0.6%
2,584 nm YUL-DUB
2,600 nm BOS-DUB




It's not clear if Delta will be able to set up regularly scheduled single aisle shuttles from ATL to it's European partner with hubs in Paris and Amsterdam. These routes are less than 4000 nmi, but headwinds may be too strong to support the return flight.They could return with a stop in Boston, but airlines are reluctant to do that on a regular basis. They may find it easier to stick with twin aisle jets.

CDG BOS 2,997 nm
AMS BOS 3,004 nm
CDG DTW 3,444 nm
AMS DTW 3,425 nm
CDG CVG 3,611 nm
AMS CVG 3,600 nm
CDG MSP 3,669 nm
AMS MSP 3,621 nm
CDG ATL 3,819 nm
AMS ATL 3,825 nm

Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Minneapolis St Paul seem doable with the long range A321. But over 50% of Delta's domestic flights are to or from ATL airport. Their European partner is Air France/KLM.
February 6th, 2018 at 2:01:19 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
Posts: 9522
After several iterations Boeing has provisionally defined two main NMA versions:
(1) a 225-seat model with a 5,000-nm. range, and
(2) a larger 275-seater with a range of roughly 4,500 nm.

The A321neo LR which is curently being tested In the premium configuration, the A321neo LR range decreases slightly to 3,904 nm because of extreme assumptions in terms of weight per passenger. The 206-seat configuration assumes 16 seats in business class at a 36-in. pitch and 190 in economy at 30 inches.

So the smaller Boeing NMA will only have 19 more seats and 1100 nautical miles of extra range. As a twin aisle jet with a broader cross section it will be nearly impossible to burn rate even close to the single aisle A321LR on a per seat basis. Disembarking / Embarking time for the smaller Boeing NMA should be very fast. We note that 225 seats = 25 rows * 9 abreast.

Price is obviously not discussed, but if we consider a nominal range between 150% to 200% of the price of the A321LR, I am betting it will be closer to 200% than to 150%.

Boeing is predicting that the NMA will become the best selling twin aisle jet in history.

My personal feeling is that Boeing will finally retire the B737 in about a decade, and will never re-enter the crowded single aisle market again. The 225-seat model NMA with a 5,000-nm. range will become their new entry level model. If Boeing is successful in purchasing Embraer, then all new single aisle planes will be designed in Brazil.

The Boeing 737Max-10 seats 192-198 in dual class or 226-232 in single class.
March 14th, 2018 at 3:41:09 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
Posts: 9522
Quote: Pacomartin
After several iterations Boeing has provisionally defined two main NMA versions:
(1) a 225-seat model with a 5,000-nm. range, and
(2) a larger 275-seater with a range of roughly 4,500 nm.


The A320neo has 1176 orders in Asia, 532 in Europe, and 278 in North America.
The A321neo has 492 orders in Asia, 460 in Europe, and 310 in North America.
The A350 has 292 order in Asia, 149 in Europe, and 92 in North America.

A320neo and A350 have almost as twice as many orders in Asia as in Europe, which makes sense since Asia has 4.4 billion people vs 0.74 people in Europe. While Europe is more developed that is almost 6X the population.

The A321neo has only slightly more orders in Asia than in Europe and North America.

Couple that with the earlier observations that only 83 of 994 B757-200 was sold in Asia, and none of the large B757-300 was sold in Asia. On the other hand nearly 20% of the B767s were sold in Asia.

We must conclude that Asian airline executives do not like larger single aisle jets very much. There does not have to be a particularly valid reason for this choice, as it might just have to do with the taste of the Asian people. Many passengers in the Americas feel single aisle jets are claustrophobic for longer trips.

Or they feel that the longer time embark and disembark is much worse of a problem than the savings in fuel by having less weight per seat.

In either case, there have only been three wide body aircraft models to sell over 1000 jets, the B747, B767 and the A330. Selling 4000 of the NMA will be a daunting task.
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