Budding Studio Executive Quiz

For 2012 there were four movies that has a billion dollar boxoffice. The full list for all years is now 15 movies.
1 Avatar
2 Titanic (one of two movies that is not a total fantasy)
3 Marvel's The Avengers :2012
4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
5 Transformers: Dark of the Moon
6 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
7 Skyfall :2012 (one of two movies that is not a total fantasy)
8 The Dark Knight Rises :2012
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
10 Toy Story 3
11 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
12 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace
13 Alice in Wonderland
14 The Dark Knight
15 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey :2012
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For 2013 Iron Man and Thor are more or less sequels to The Avengers, but their earlier individual movies didn't come close to a $ billion. There is no Abatar or Toy Story. or Harry Potter or James Bond or Transformers sequel. N

Johnny Depp has 3 movies out of the group, but he isn't magic as we saw from Dark Shadows. He has his new Tonto character this summer.

The Lord of the Rings movies got more popular with each new on, but the Hobbit movies may get less popular.

Batman's Christian Bale is making a thriller called "Out of the Furnace" with Casey Affleck, Zoe Saldana, Sam Shepard, Woody Harrelson, Forest Whitaker, and Willem Dafoe but I didn't make it an option simply because thrillers don't usually have massive worldwide appeal. But Inception did make $825 million.

Superman Returns only made $400 million worldwide 7 years ago, which for that kind of budget is considered a failure. Brandon Routh got fired as Superman.

The Chronicles of Riddick only made $115 million worldwide 9 years ago, and was considered a failure, but Vin Diesel's status seems to be growing with Fast Five, so I put it on the list.

Any guesses which ones will make it for 2013? You can pick as many as you want but it is unlikely to go over 5. I would go so far as to say that zero is even a possibility (although you will have very unhappy executives). There are no guarantees as many people thought Titanic would be a flop.

I'm unsure about the Hobbit Part II. I enjoyed it, but the big escape scene in the Goblin Mines was a miss, too many liberties with the original story, spinning it out to be too long. The core struggle in the Hobbit is kind of enjoyable for it's own sake, and doesn't need as many references to the Lord of the Rings as they've put in.

I can see it falling off. Or I may have never been so wrong.

Quote: TheCesspit

spinning it out to be too long ...I can see it falling off. Or I may have never been so wrong.

I have read the LOTR trilogy three times when I was young, and so I can be considered a big fan of the books, but I thought the movies were "spun out" far beyond the limits of human tolerance. Yet the worldwide boxoffice went from $872 Million for the first movie in 2001 to $1,120 Million for the 3rd movie in 2003. So they made roughly $3 billion in tickets sales for movies that cost less than 10% of that amount to produce.

I think Back to the Future II and III in 1989 and 1990 introduced the filming of more than one movie at a time, but Parts II and III combined sold fewer tickets than the original movie by itself.

The LOTR introduced the era when the franchise was planned at the beginning. I think the 3rd one won Best Picture Oscar as much because of the incredible business decision as for the quality of the movie.

So logically,as the Hobbit movies are stretched even farther than the LOTR movies, I would think people would get bored with them, but I was dead wrong about LOTR.

Beats me. I saw Avatar (involuntarily) and it was bad enough.
I don't want to see any of this vampire or Jeddi Knights stuff and I don't know how anyone can sell a script or fund a motion picture based on this utterly nonsensical clap trap much less based on its being Clap Trap, The Prequel.

Quote: Fleastiff

I don't know how anyone can sell a script or fund a motion picture based on this utterly nonsensical clap trap much less based on its being Clap Trap, The Prequel.

It's not clear if you hate movies, or hate big budget movies. How many of the 100 top reviewed movies did you see last year? If the answer is zero, then you probably don't like movies. Admittedly many of these movies were seen by very few people.

# Good Reviews Title No. of Reviews -------------------------------------------------- ( domestic ticket sales)
1. 100% The Invisible War (2012) 59 -------------------------------------------------- ( 9, 000 tickets)
2. 100% How to Survive a Plague (2012) 56 --------------------------------------------------(17,000 tickets)
3. 100% 56 Up (2012) 53 --------------------------------------------------(65,000 tickets)
4. 100% The Waiting Room (2012) 26
5. 100% Planet of Snail (2012) 23
6. 100% Wild Bill (2012) 21
7. 100% Everything or Nothing: The Untold Story of 007 (2012) 20
8. 99% Finding Nemo 3D (2012) 226
9. 99% Jiro Dreams of Sushi (2012) 84
10. 99% This Is Not a Film (2012) 82
11. 98% Oslo, August 31st (2012) 55
12. 98% Brooklyn Castle (2012) 49
13. 98% The Island President (2012) 46
14. 98% Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence In The House Of God (2012) 40
15. 98% The Loved Ones (2012) 40
16. 97% Monsieur Lazhar (2012) 110
17. 97% West of Memphis (2012) 96
18. 97% Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (2012) 76
19. 97% Beware Of Mr. Baker (2012) 33
20. 97% Paul Williams Still Alive (2012) 30
21. 96% Argo (2012) 256 --------------------------------------------------(16,555,600 tickets)
22. 96% Monsters, Inc. 3D (2012) 190
23. 96% Searching for Sugar Man (2012) 116
24. 96% Yellow Submarine (2012) 46
25. 96% Sleepless Night (2012) 25
26. 96% Something from Nothing: The Art of Rap (2012) 25
27. 95% The Imposter (2012) 106
28. 95% The Queen of Versailles (2012) 103
29. 95% Marley (2012) 99
30. 95% Diana Vreeland: The Eye Has To Travel (2012) 65
31. 95% Chasing Ice (2012) 64
32. 95% Side by Side (2012) 61
33. 95% The Central Park Five (2012) 61
34. 95% Sister (2012) 60
35. 95% Marina Abramovic: The Artist Is Present (2012) 42
36. 95% 5 Broken Cameras (2012) 39
37. 95% Bonsái (2012) 20
38. 94% Zero Dark Thirty (2012) 235
39. 94% Moonrise Kingdom (2012) 216
40. 94% The Sessions (2012) 180
41. 94% The Secret World of Arrietty (2012) 120
42. 94% I Wish (2012) 66
43. 94% Farewell, My Queen (2012) 65
44. 94% The Sapphires (2012) 62
45. 93% Looper (2012) 241
46. 93% Amour (2012) 180
47. 93% Barbara (2012) 61
48. 93% Elena (2012) 59
49. 93% The House I Live In (2012) 59
50. 93% Shadow Dancer (2012) 41
51. 93% Turn Me On, Dammit! (2012) 41
52. 93% Beauty Is Embarrassing (2012) 29
53. 93% Last Ride (2012) 29
54. 93% Girl Model (2012) 28
55. 93% Indie Game: The Movie (2012) 28
56. 93% Sleep Tight (2012) 28
57. 92% Marvel's The Avengers (2012) 293--------------------------------------------------(76,768,200 tickets)
58. 92% Skyfall (2012) 289
59. 92% The Cabin in the Woods (2012) 227
60. 92% Silver Linings Playbook (2012) 221
61. 92% Headhunters (2012) 91
62. 92% Lore (2012) 75
63. 92% The Fairy (2012) 39
64. 92% A Simple Life (2012) 25
65. 92% Crossfire Hurricane (2012) 25
66. 91% Safety Not Guaranteed (2012) 135
67. 91% Bernie (2012) 126
68. 90% Holy Motors (2012) 133
69. 90% The Well Digger's Daughter (2012) 40
70. 90% The Green Wave (2012) 21
71. 90% Gayby (2012) 20
72. 90% What Richard Did (2012) 20
73. 89% Lincoln (2012) 237
74. 89% Compliance (2012) 108
75. 89% In Darkness (2012) 98
76. 89% A Royal Affair (2012) 97
77. 89% Neil Young Journeys (2012) 55
78. 89% Carol Channing: Larger Than Life (2012) 27
79. 89% Portrait of Wally (2012) 27
80. 88% Django Unchained (2012) 231
81. 88% Life of Pi (2012) 216
82. 88% Frankenweenie (2012) 196
83. 88% Boy (2012) 64
84. 88% The Turin Horse (2012) 48
85. 88% Starlet (2012) 42
86. 88% The Big Picture (2012) 41
87. 88% Head Games (2012) 34
88. 88% Pink Ribbons, Inc. (2012) 33
89. 88% The Other Dream Team (2012) 32
90. 88% Ballplayer: Pelotero (2012) 24
91. 88% Shut Up and Play the Hits (2012) 24
92. 87% The Dark Knight Rises (2012) 295
93. 87% ParaNorman (2012) 155
94. 87% Arbitrage (2012) 146
95. 86% Robot & Frank (2012) 116
96. 87% Sleepwalk With Me (2012) 89
97. 87% Middle of Nowhere (2012) 39
98. 86% The Master (2012) 218
99. 86% Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012) 180
100. 86% Wreck-it Ralph (2012) 161

Saw 3 --- what's that make me?

I'm not a big movie goer. Mostly due to cost and opportunity.

Given that 3-D and IMAX charge a premium, big effects movies would seem to have the best chance to hit $1B:

How about these:

Star Trek Into Darkness
Pacific Rim
Wolverine

I think Monsters Unviversity may surprise.

I am genuinely surprised to see Skyfall on the list. Maybe I should see it.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Given that 3-D and IMAX charge a premium, big effects movies would seem to have the best chance to hit $1B:
How about these:
Star Trek Into Darkness
Pacific Rim
Wolverine
I think Monsters Unviversity may surprise.

I am genuinely surprised to see Skyfall on the list. Maybe I should see it.

Only one BILLION dollar movies made more money domestically than foreign. The Dark Knight made 53.2% domestically. The Dark Knight Rises 58.5 % from foreign sales.These three movies made the largest percent from foreign sales:
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides made 76.9% in foreign sales in 2011
Avatar made 72.7% in foreign sales in 2009
Skyfall made 72.5% in foreign sales in 2012

That is part of the reason it is difficult to predict a BILLION dollar movie, since primarily you have to guess how the foreign market will like the movie. They are not as familiar with Star Trek, Batman, and other characters. Titanic foreign market was dominated by Japan, but by the time Avatar was released China could equal Japan in ticket sales. Either Japan or China are now more important than any single European country. While the populations are much bigger, in the past they were not as attuned to Western theater taste, or in the case of China, there weren't many movie theaters.

These three original movies made far less than a billion dollars. It would be a huge jump for the sequel, and it would mean that the foreign market would have to develop a real taste for the brand.

• Star Trek made Domestic: $258 million, + Foreign:$128 milion .
• X-Men Origins: Wolverine made Domestic: $180 million, + Foreign: $193 million. That is also far from a billion $.
• Monsters, Inc. : Domestic: $289 million + Foreign: $273 million
  
  Guillermo del Toro (director of Pacific Rim) has never made a movie that earned more than $160 million worldwide. Although talented, he is kind of acquired taste.

Long ago one looked only to USA revenue, anything else was a sweetener.

Then some stars started to be more popular in Europe than in the USA and the USA movies could get funding based on projected European sales.

Now we are talking about China and Japan movie revenue? I guess they have movie theaters there and they show more than just endless re-runs of Godzilla but are the revenue reporting systems of significant reliability? In other words, does anyone trust their Japanese and Chinese distributors?

Quote: Fleastiff

Long ago one looked only to USA revenue, anything else was a sweetener. Then some stars started to be more popular in Europe than in the USA and the USA movies could get funding based on projected European sales. Now we are talking about China and Japan movie revenue? I guess they have movie theaters there and they show more than just endless re-runs of Godzilla but are the revenue reporting systems of significant reliability? In other words, does anyone trust their Japanese and Chinese distributors?

It is my understanding that the profit from films is very complex. For instance, the film Batman & Robin (1997) was considered by most people to be a disaster. Clearly George Clooney recovered nicely with Perfect Storm, Oceans 11,12,13 and many artistically recognized movies. But the other four actors never appeared in a $100 million film again (excepting Terminator 3). And they all had promising careers.

Even though the actors, writer and director suffered, Warner Brothers profited hugely because the movie was designed to sell toys to very little kids who were generally immune to the horrific film. The franchise also took 5 years to recover.

Batman and Robin (1997) Domestic:$107 million + Foreign: $131 million = Worldwide: $238, million
Director: Joel Schumacher ; Writer: Akiva Goldsman
Actors: Arnold Schwarzenegger, George Clooney, Chris O'Donnell, Uma Thurman, Alicia Silverstone

So I am not sure of the reliability of the overseas numbers. I do know that it is now important enough to drive artistic decisions. Supposedly they rewrote the remake of Red Dawn to make it more acceptable to the Chinese government. I am not sure if it was ever shown there however.