Is the PC "Dying"?

Between the increase in sales of tablets and "smart" phones, and the decrease in sales of desktop, laptop and netbook PCs (not to mention the launch of Windows Hell, I mean "Eight"), the media, old and new (but especially new) is all atwitter about the "death" of the PC.

I must confess I cannot see it. Sure, it's not rare for an old technology to be replaced, or made useless, by a new one. For example, we went from whale oil lamps to kerosene lamps to gas lamps to electric lamps; and in the last, incandescent light bulbs give way to fluorescents and thence to LEDs. There are many other examples: carriages to cars, wagons to trucks, caravans to railroads to tractor trailers, ocean liners to airplanes, etc etc.

But notice in all cases the new technology serves the same purpose as the old technology, only faster, cheaper, more efficiently, more conveniently, etc. As a simpe example, a car, in the long run, is both more convenient and cheaper than a horse drawn carriage (you can't mass produce horses, nor can you constantly increase their efficiency; also you don't "feed" the car when you're not using it, but I digress).

But what si there to replace the PC? What new technology can perform the functions of a desktop or even a laptop computer?

Up to a point, that depends on what you do with one. Computers are multi-use tools, after all, capable of a myriad different tasks. There are many people who do little with their home PCs but browse a few sites and read email. For that, a tablet or even some phones wuold be adecuate. At work there are some things a tablet can do as well, or better, than a PC. Say you need to look at reports, spreadsheets and such on the road. A tablet works as well, but it's cheaper, uses less energy and is lighter to carry.

But for serious work, such as writing articles or books, making spreadsheets and reports, all work requiring massive data entry (like bookeeping, inventories, etc), design of all kinds, serious analysis of data, processing large amounts of information, not to mention much scientific and medical work involving analysis of samples, readings from instruments, reference material (especially in medicine), and just about everything else requiring hours of work, simply require a PC.

Some parts of what I outline above may be done on a table, perhaps, but not all of it, and certainly not as well.

What may happen is that we'll see tablets grow in size and capability, then the manufacturers will add a keybaord and a mouse, and a bigger display, and USB ports for connecting peripherals, and support for external displays, and a hard drive for improved storage, and an optical drive, and the tablet will be a PC.

There was a famous study done in the 1950's that concluded that 4 computers would meet all the computing demands of the nation.

PC's absorbed many of the communication functions of other devices (faxes and phones), and all the analog devices like typewriters and to some extent books. Now specialized devices are taking back those functions.

I don't think "dying" is the correct word.

The business work world will always require PCs. In the personal user space, they are "dying" as in their market share is going down compared to tablets and smartphones. But it will bottom out somewhere above 0%. I will always want a desktop or laptop at home, no matter how powerful the tablets and smart phones get.

Quote: AcesAndEights

The business work world will always require PCs.

Hear, hear!

Quote:

In the personal user space, they are "dying" as in their market share is going down compared to tablets and smartphones. But it will bottom out somewhere above 0%. I will always want a desktop or laptop at home, no matter how powerful the tablets and smart phones get.

Exactly. So why the panic, the SCREAMING headlines, and Windows 8?

Never done any serious gaming myself, but that's also a market for power users.

I have a hobbyist need for a powerful pc, as the software involved is painfully slow or crippled without it. (desktop is an i7 2600 with 12GB of ram)

Quote: Nareed

Exactly. So why the panic, the SCREAMING headlines, and Windows 8?

Forbe's The Death of the PC Has Not Been Exaggerated says 79 million PCs sold in the quarter, but that is down 14% from last year. The article says The PC, in fact, is probably a lot like the dinosaurs of 66 million years ago.

The article also states:

But the death of the PC isn’t just about tablets; it’s also about smartphones and the developing world, too. For many people, “computers” are the devices in their pocket, not laptops and desktops. The very things about tablets and smartphones that techies like to criticize (you can only get software from “app stores”; you can’t customize the devices as much as you want) are the very things that make them easier to maintain and use and less prone to viruses and crashes that people tolerated on PCs but certainly never enjoyed.

It makes some sense. I know Google advertises it's chromebook primarily by price ($250) but also emphasizes that it works as soon as you open it up, and you never have to upgrade software. It would seem that is what people want.

A chromebook could be viewed as a post PC device.

Quote: Nareed

Exactly. So why the panic, the SCREAMING headlines, and Windows 8?

Need for content and clicks, 24 hour news cycle, etc. I try to ignore it as much as possible.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Need for content and clicks, 24 hour news cycle, etc. I try to ignore it as much as possible.

That doesn't explain Windows 8.

Quote: Pacomartin

But the death of the PC isn’t just about tablets; it’s also about smartphones and the developing world, too. For many people, “computers” are the devices in their pocket, not laptops and desktops. The very things about tablets and smartphones that techies like to criticize (you can only get software from “app stores”; you can’t customize the devices as much as you want) are the very things that make them easier to maintain and use and less prone to viruses and crashes that people tolerated on PCs but certainly never enjoyed.

There are two thigns to say to that:

1) Those people do not use their phones (it's mostly phones) for any serious work. Mostly they are glued to facebook, twitter and other such time wasters.

2) No one in the "thrid world," on or any other, who needs to do any serious work is torn between buying a PC or a tablet.

Overall it's kind of declaring massive, long-haul trucks to be dying because people who never go farther than 5 miles are buying bycycles.

Quote:

It makes some sense. I know Google advertises it's chromebook primarily by price ($250) but also emphasizes that it works as soon as you open it up, and you never have to upgrade software. It would seem that is what people want.

That sounds realy good. it has to. it's advertising. Advertising always sounds really good. And if you buy a product based merely on its ads, you deserve it.

Does this chromebook do anything?

On a completely unrelated note, it is my considered opinion that Windows 8 must be destroyed.

Quote: AcesAndEights

The business work world will always require PCs. In the personal user space, they are "dying" as in their market share is going down compared to tablets and smartphones. But it will bottom out somewhere above 0%. I will always want a desktop or laptop at home, no matter how powerful the tablets and smart phones get.

I can't develop code on a ipad, tablet or chromebook. The PC/desktop Mac won't die.