change in electoral college votes for 2024

Average Annual Population growth estimates for 9 out of last 10 years followed by expected change in electoral college votes for 2024
1.72% .District of Columbia
1.62% .Utah
1.55% .Texas +3
1.48% .Colorado +1
1.46% .Nevada
1.46% .Florida +2
1.44% .Idaho
1.43% .Arizona +1
1.36% .North Dakota
1.36% .Washington
1.17% .South Carolina
1.06% .Oregon +1
1.02% .North Carolina +1
1.00% .Georgia
0.90% .South Dakota
0.88% .Delaware
0.85% .Montana +1
0.80% .Tennessee
0.69% .Virginia
0.67% .Minnesota -1
0.64% .California -1
0.62% .Nebraska
0.57% .Oklahoma
0.54% .Massachusetts
0.48% .Maryland
0.42% .Hawaii
0.41% .Indiana
0.37% .Iowa
0.36% .Arkansas
0.36% .New Hampshire
0.30% .Kentucky
0.28% .Wyoming
0.27% .Alaska
0.27% .Alabama -1
0.26% .Missouri
0.26% .Wisconsin
0.25% .Louisiana
0.21% .Kansas
0.17% .New Mexico
0.14% .Ohio -1
0.14% .Maine
0.12% .Michigan -1
0.10% .New Jersey
0.08% .Pennsylvania -1
0.06% .Rhode Island -1
0.03% .New York -1
0.02% .Mississippi
-0.03% .Vermont
-0.04% .Connecticut
-0.15% .Illinois -1
-0.38% .West Virginia -1
-1.69% Puerto Rico

It is a little unexpected that the Pacific is losing net one electoral college vote, same as New England.

doesn't seem consistent

Quote: odiousgambit

doesn't seem consistent

I assume you mean California losing one electoral college vote-- the first time in history CA has decreased instead of increased. Minnesota is also somewhat surprising.

Average Annual Population growth estimates for 9 out of last 10 years followed by expected change in electoral college votes for 2024
1.55% .Texas +3
1.48% .Colorado +1 ~ DEM
1.46% .Florida +2
1.43% .Arizona +1 ~ DEM
1.06% .Oregon +1 ~ DEM
1.02% .North Carolina +1
0.85% .Montana +1
-----> 0.653% projected average annual increase in US population for 2010 to 2011
+0.67% .Minnesota -1 ~ DEM
+0.64% .California -1 ~ DEM
+0.27% .Alabama -1
+0.14% .Ohio -1
+0.08% .Pennsylvania -1 ~ DEM
+0.06% .Rhode Island -1 ~ DEM
+0.03% .New York -1 ~ DEM
-0.04% .Connecticut -1 ~ DEM
-0.15% .Illinois -1 ~ DEM
-0.38% .West Virginia -1

2020 EV vote (Democrats would lose 4 EV if 2024)


You tend to think that Democrats are winning the population demographics change.

a recent article* brings into question the long accepted projection that whites will be a minority in a decade or so. It said the census bureau ironically followed the segregation south's 'one drop' rule, determining that people of mixed race with 'white' in that equation would identify as non-white 100%, even if still white 75% or 95% or whatever. This would then mean unrelenting growth in people identifying as Democrat vs Republican. The last election, though Biden won, did not reflect this Democrat party growth the way it should have as to what should be happening according to this thinking. Texas is a good example.

* I'm trying to find this article, I'm not explaining this well

I'm Still Standing, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah [it's an old guy chant for me]

the below is not the article I saw, but addresses the census mistake

Quote:

Sticking with the two-question format means that the great majority of young people with mixed Hispanic and white origins will be categorized only as Hispanic — and therefore as “nonwhite,” in census terminology. This classification will often contradict how they perceive and experience their identity, and how they’re treated by the world around them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/02/06/theres-a-big-problem-with-how-the-census-measures-race/

Quote: odiousgambit

the below is not the article I saw, but addresses the census mistake



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/02/06/theres-a-big-problem-with-how-the-census-measures-race/

Why should race be measured
Under race. I generally put other
I'm biracial
I should not have to check other but I am usually left no choice. The question should not be asked if the only answer I am provided is other.
If they really want accuracy, instead of listing races, why not leave a blank space to be filled in instead inaccurate boxes to check.
That way my race is never other

Quote: terapined

Why should race be measured

We all know that "race" is not a scientific term. Tutsi's in Rwanda have an average height is 5 feet 9 inches, although individuals have been recorded as being taller than 7 feet. The African Pygmies usually start at 4 feet 8 inches. Yet they are considered to be part of the same race.

In Mexico the census is forbidden to ask questions about "race". Of course, in the US, "race" is a business.

Quote: Pacomartin

Of course, in the US, "race" is a business.

WINNER WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER!

It is a huge business. The Democrat Party lives off it as a business. And any number of organizations like the NAACP.

Every time the idea is proposed to stop asking about race the liberals scream.

Quote: AZDuffman

WINNER WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER!

It is a huge business. The Democrat Party lives off it as a business. And any number of organizations like the NAACP.

Every time the idea is proposed to stop asking about race the liberals scream.

Few people are more obsessed with race than AZDuffman.

If anything the census question in 2030 may be enlarged to include "Middle Eastern or North African" as a separate category

Quote: AZDuffman

WINNER WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER!

On the history of 'Hispanic' on the Census Questionnaire

In 1930, "Mexican" was put on the Census questionnaire as a race. This was during the Depression and it was a time period when [the government was] rounding up people. They used the Census in the 1940s to locate Japanese-Americans for internment camps. So people didn't want to be identifiable on the Census because they were afraid of the government.

Today, everyone wants to be counted. Now everyone wants representation. But at that time period, people did not want that. And they also did not want to be racialized. This was a time where the best avenue for people to fit in was to claim whiteness.

In 1929, the League of the United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), a Mexican-American organization, formed in Corpus Christi, TX. One of their main organizing efforts was to get "Mexican" off the 1930 census. They protested: we are white race, we are Americans.

The Mexican government itself protested the category, because the entire Southwest used to be part of Mexico, and when it was taken over by the United States, they promised Mexico that the Mexican residents there would be treated as full citizens. Well, at the time, you had to be white to be a citizen. So that's where the whole issue came about of Mexicans, specifically, identifying as legally white but socially not-white.

It worked against them in some ways, because they claimed segregation and discrimination, the parties being accused of discrimination could say, Well, no, you're white. So this history of claiming whiteness has been a strategy that Mexican Americans and other Latino groups have used to try to lobby for acceptance — claiming Americanness, claiming whiteness.

LULAC and the Mexican government successfully had "Mexican" removed from [the census questionnaire]. After 1930, there has never been another Latino group listed as a race on it. In 1970, the Hispanic origin question was first introduced on the Census long form, which is an extended questionnaire that goes out to about one in six households. And then, finally in 1980, the Hispanic identity question appears on all of the forms. It used to come after the race question. They later moved it before the race question because it was one of the most unanswered forms on the census. If you asked people their race, "I'm white or I'm black," and they would get this next question, "are you Hispanic?" They would say "I already answered this," and they would skip it. So that's why we have them the way they are and the way they're ordered.
===========================================================================================

On the Mexican census questionaire questions #6-#8 are about indigenous language and if you speak Spanish. It's as close as they get to a racial question

6. LENGUA INDÍGENA Ahora quiero preguntarle.
¿ (NOMBRE) habla algún dialecto o lengua indígena?
CIRCULE SÓLO UN CÓDIGO
Sí......................... 1
No........................ 3

7. NOMBRE DE LA LENGUA INDÍGENA
¿Qué dialecto o lengua indígena habla (NOMBRE) ?
ANOTE EL DIALECTO O LENGUA INDÍGENA
__________________________

8. HABLA ESPAÑOL
¿ (NOMBRE) habla también español?