Taiwan Is Next

Quote: JimRockford

I used to go to HK for work in the mid 2000s. There was a widely circulated English language newspaper, The South China Morning Post. They wrote about everything China didn't want talked about, Tiananmen Square, Taiwan, Tibet. I thought at the time, how long can they get away with this? I now read the SCMP on the internet occasionally. They have moderated their content significantly.

Censorship in HK
sad
It was only a matter of time

Back to Taiwan
The majority of people in Taiwan are for an independent country
A quarter of the people are ok with the current status
Only about 10% want China reunification. China interfering with elections to get reunification have a lot of work cut out for them.

Quote: terapined

Only about 10% want China reunification. China interfering with elections to get reunification have a lot of work cut out for them.

Quote: TAIPEI (Taiwan News)

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4203406
The Council of Agriculture (COA) assured the public on Thursday (May 13) that Taiwan has enough food for at least six months, in an attempt to end the panic buying sparked by a surge in local COVID-19 infections. During a press interview, the COA pointed out that the country has about 953,000 metric tons of rice in stock, which is sufficient to feed the entire population for 18 months. Meanwhile, vegetables and fruits can meet nationwide demand for six months, it said. As far as meat is concerned, the COA said Taiwan has 525,000 metric tons of pork and 510,000 metric tons of chicken products in stock. In addition, it said 24 million eggs are supplied each day, and 579,000 metric tons of seafood will be available during the next six months.

Despite those assurances of stockpiles of basic food and 1/4 of the island turned over to agriculture, Taiwan is an island that imports 65% of their food. Life would get very unpleasant if the ports are blockaded.

I said that China wants reunification with as little bloodshed as possible, but they are not so naive to believe that the majority of the population will vote to reunify of their own free will. They will blockade the ports and then start a PR campaign to convince people that reunification is better than living under sanctions.

They will try to hurt the US financially as much as possible to convince the American public that this is the internal affairs of a foreign country that they should stay out of. Dumping a trillion dollars in US treasury bonds is worthwhile if it gets them Taiwan back.

Quote: Pacomartin

Quote: TAIPEI (Taiwan News)

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4203406
The Council of Agriculture (COA) assured the public on Thursday (May 13) that Taiwan has enough food for at least six months, in an attempt to end the panic buying sparked by a surge in local COVID-19 infections. During a press interview, the COA pointed out that the country has about 953,000 metric tons of rice in stock, which is sufficient to feed the entire population for 18 months. Meanwhile, vegetables and fruits can meet nationwide demand for six months, it said. As far as meat is concerned, the COA said Taiwan has 525,000 metric tons of pork and 510,000 metric tons of chicken products in stock. In addition, it said 24 million eggs are supplied each day, and 579,000 metric tons of seafood will be available during the next six months.

Despite those assurances of stockpiles of basic food and 1/4 of the island turned over to agriculture, Taiwan is an island that imports 65% of their food. Life would get very unpleasant if the ports are blockaded.

I said that China wants reunification with as little bloodshed as possible, but they are not so naive to believe that the majority of the population will vote to reunify of their own free will. They will blockade the ports and then start a PR campaign to convince people that reunification is better than living under sanctions.

They will try to hurt the US financially as much as possible to convince the American public that this is the internal affairs of a foreign country that they should stay out of. Dumping a trillion dollars in US treasury bonds is worthwhile if it gets them Taiwan back.

I just dont see a blockade happening
20 or 30 years ago the rulers had that power as communism ruled the day
The economy is what is driving China these days, not communism.
I think China's goal of being THE major economic power on the planet simply outweighs taking Taiwan
A blockade will simply wreck the worlds economy. Not only does this effect China, Taiwan and USA, it clearly would effect Japan and South Korea, also massive economies. A blockade would mean worldwide economic depression affecting China citizens currently thriving and travelling abroad. I just dont think China really wants to go there.
All the economic gains China has made, I really doubt they will do anything to imperil that.
The path to economic dominance is clear and keeps the ruling party in power. A blockade and resulting economic depression makes the future of the ruling elite very murky.
This isnt Japan of the 1930s with few resources
It's only a political goal to take Taiwan. Economically it just does not make sense right now.
50 years from now if China is clearly the number 1 economic and military power on the planet, maybe Taiwan should start worrying.

I think an ATTEMPT at a blockade would be challenged by the allies of Taiwan. Japan, South Korea, USA. Do you think China sinks a US flagged freighter on its way to Taiwan? Not saying it can’t happen, but that is WAR.

Quote: SOOPOO

I think an ATTEMPT at a blockade would be challenged by the allies of Taiwan. Japan, South Korea, USA. Do you think China sinks a US flagged freighter on its way to Taiwan? Not saying it can’t happen, but that is WAR.

I dont think a freighter will challenge a blockade
but
A naval blockade cant work without an aviation blockade
That makes things incredibly complicated for China
China makes a threat.
I would not be surprised if the US parks an aircraft carrier nearby
I think if there is any aggression, it will happen in the air 1st if it ever happens.
Probably a Taiwan jet vs a China jet, if that ever happens.
China instituting a Taiwan blockade is a threat to the worldwide economy
WWII era. Economies were pretty much isolated in each country
Everything is now incredibly intertwined.
Just about anything manufactured these days, parts are sourced worldwide rather then domestically.
Take micro chips, the planet pretty much depends on Taiwan.

Quote: terapined

I just dont see a blockade happening .

Taiwan’s defence ministry, in its once-every-four-years defence review, disagrees.

Taiwan says China bolstering ability to attack, blockade island - MARCH 19, 2021

Quote: SOOPOO

I think an ATTEMPT at a blockade would be challenged by the allies of Taiwan. Japan, South Korea, USA. Do you think China sinks a US flagged freighter on its way to Taiwan? Not saying it can’t happen, but that is WAR.

It need not be a military blockade. The Chicoms could say that any ship that delivers to Taiwan in no longer welcome in their ports. They could say that any country that trades with Taiwan is not welcome to trade with China. Or do it mafia-style and a ship that was in Taiwan needs an "inspection" and make that inspection take a week.

China is an enemy and dangerous, do not put anything past them.

the way China is gaining more and more control over Hong Kong is going to be their model for Taiwan. At this point, the situation seems too dissimilar, but they will work on some way to do it by this gradual takeover.

Or,

I think it is possible we will have war with China, but not starting over a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. If it is a nasty full blown long war, though, then occupying Taiwan could be a part of it.

Quote: odiousgambit

the way China is gaining more and more control over Hong Kong is going to be their model for Taiwan. At this point, the situation seems too dissimilar, but they will work on some way to do it by this gradual takeover.

Or,

I think it is possible we will have war with China, but not starting over a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. If it is a nasty full blown long war, though, then occupying Taiwan could be a part of it.

I can't see where major powers engaging in direct conflict with each other is to either's advantage. Proxy wars are still the future, IMO.

Quote: rxwine

I can't see where major powers engaging in direct conflict with each other is to either's advantage. Proxy wars are still the future, IMO.

One of the huge problems facing China
Their military sucks big time
Yea they dump a lot of money into the military
But
Corruption is rampant
Reality
North Vietnam kicked China's ass in 1979
An invasion would be very difficult
The below video gives a great presentation on Taiwan's defenses which are formidable