State of the Economy

Huge print this morning under the veil of current bank solvency issues.

US Empire Manufacturing Mar: -24.6 (exp -7.9; prev -5.8)

Second link is the 5 page report in pdf.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

3/15/2023
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Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6. New orders dropped significantly, and shipments declined modestly. Delivery times shortened for a second consecutive month, suggesting supply availability improved, and inventories were steady. Both employment and hours worked declined for a second consecutive month. Input and selling price increases slowed somewhat. Looking ahead, businesses expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months.
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https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html

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https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2023/esms_2023_03.pdf?la=en

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Quote: DoubleGold

Huge print this morning under the veil of current bank solvency issues.

US Empire Manufacturing Mar: -24.6 (exp -7.9; prev -5.8)

Second link is the 5 page report in pdf.

--------------------------------------------------------

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

3/15/2023
.
.
.
Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6. New orders dropped significantly, and shipments declined modestly. Delivery times shortened for a second consecutive month, suggesting supply availability improved, and inventories were steady. Both employment and hours worked declined for a second consecutive month. Input and selling price increases slowed somewhat. Looking ahead, businesses expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months.
.
.
.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html

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https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2023/esms_2023_03.pdf?la=en

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I need a quick summary of most of your posts. Are you just trying to say ‘the economy’ in NY is in trouble?

You seem very interested in central bank/economy/government….. do you have a job regarding them? I’m trying to get a handle on where you are coming from. You don’t seem to trust any what would be deemed ‘mainstream’ authority. Like Biden, doctors, scientists, etc….

Quote: SOOPOO

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I need a quick summary of most of your posts. Are you just trying to say ‘the economy’ in NY is in trouble?

You seem very interested in central bank/economy/government….. do you have a job regarding them? I’m trying to get a handle on where you are coming from. You don’t seem to trust any what would be deemed ‘mainstream’ authority. Like Biden, doctors, scientists, etc….

I'm not saying it's good nor bad, yet.

But I have yet to enter my opinion on the state of the economy in this thread.

Just that the report was shocking.


I have an upper-level history in finance and software design.

I don't trust too many folks, especially the media, politicians, bankers, medical science, etc.

Another pointless DG thread to block.

This is my preferred economic indicator.

Notice the recent hook.

In theory, she can rip upward to shred all banks to pieces.

To get a better perspective, select the "Max" command.

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10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y)

Mar 14, 2023

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/

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This one should scare most of us (almost $1T in interest per year).

By the way, they just issue new instruments to compound the growth as opposed to accepting payments.

The collateral is labor (future).

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Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments (A091RC1Q027SBEA)

Feb 23, 2023

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA

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Quote: DoubleGold

Huge print this morning under the veil of current bank solvency issues.

US Empire Manufacturing Mar: -24.6 (exp -7.9; prev -5.8)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6. New orders dropped significantly, and shipments declined modestly. Delivery times shortened for a second consecutive month, suggesting supply availability improved, and inventories were steady. Both employment and hours worked declined for a second consecutive month. Input and selling price increases slowed somewhat. Looking ahead, businesses expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months.

No surprise there. It’s a bullwhip effect, caused by the stimulus money spending running out. Don’t know why they still use that NY index. Thanks to taxes, regulations and unions, what was once the ‘Empire State’ hasn’t been friendly to manufacturing since the mid seventies.

On a good note, the Producer Price Index, was down. - 0.1% vs. a 0.3% expected increase. Core PPI increased 0.2%. Half of what was expected. PPI year over year, fell 19% to 4.6% from 5.7%.

'Mark Zuckerberg warns in layoffs announcement to prepare for a 'new economic reality' that could last 'many years'

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Talking Heads - Burning down the House (1984) Live

https://vimeo.com/115688804

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Quote: Tanko

No surprise there. It’s a bullwhip effect, caused by the stimulus money spending running out. Don’t know why they still use that NY index. Thanks to taxes, regulations and unions, what was once the ‘Empire State’ hasn’t been friendly to manufacturing since the mid seventies.

On a good note, the Producer Price Index, was down. - 0.1% vs. a 0.3% expected increase. Core PPI increased 0.2%. Half of what was expected. PPI year over year, fell 19% to 4.6% from 5.7%.

'Mark Zuckerberg warns in layoffs announcement to prepare for a 'new economic reality' that could last 'many years'

Good post.


Is Mark still prepping for the Metaverse?

I wouldn't act on his opinion, but like Cramer, I listen to him.

I make sure it goes out the other ear though.

This one shows the Federal Reserve pivoting with $300B for the Biden Bank Bailout.

To see it better, click on "1Y".

This is important because it's good for inflation but bad for savers (lowers purchasing power).

Pretending like the general public won't pay for the bailout is nothing but pure deception.


I took bearish profits from the Steel sector the day before yesterday.

The last day I held the bearish position, was the best day I've ever had in the markets.


The ECB increased their interest funds rate yesterday.

Cash is King for the bears, new market highs (?) for the bulls.

In other words, pivot with the Fed or at least respect the cash injection.

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Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL)

Mar 16, 2023

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

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PS: Looking for proof of a contagion event (liquidity).

For example, AAPL announcing 20,000 getting laid-off could do it.

Stock could rise close to $168 on the news.