NFL Prop Bet Calculator

Page 1 of 212>
January 27th, 2014 at 5:37:40 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Let me preface this by saying that I have been studying NFL prop bets since about 2004. I've been through ten versions of my methodology to analyze props and think it is as good as it is going to get. I follow the Stanford Wong philosophy in Sharp Sports Betting at looking at only the most pertinent information of a game and comparing it to historical data. There are hundreds of Super Bowl props every year and I don't have time to do an in-depth analysis of all of them. My specialty is what are called "game props." These are props whose outcome is based on just the scoring pattern of the game. I also like props on punts, as I think there is value in betting on those as well.

I hope I don't need to review my credentials to speak on this topic. If you think I'm a moron for considering only the point spread and total in my methodology, then you are entitled to your opinion. It is also suggested, in the interests of etiquette, that you keep this opinion to yourself. I present this here because I find the atmosphere at WoV to be too toxic for this topic. What I'm presenting is one of my proudest works ever and I'm not going to subject it to the bile being thrown around over there.

All that said, please have a look at my brand new NFL Proposition Bet Calculator. This is just the beginning and I'm sure I'll be adding a lot more props as time permits.

Disclaimer: Use this calculator at your own risk. If you think there are factors in the game that aren't reflected in the spread and total that might affect the props listed, then don't use it. For example, if there were two feet of snow on the field, then I don't think there would be many field goals, regardless of the spread and total. I also am very aware that the average number of field goals per game keeps creeping up, as shown in this post. That should make betting against field goals more risky. I recommend using this calculator as just a tool and don't put total faith in it.

As always, I welcome all civil comments, questions, and corrections.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
January 28th, 2014 at 3:36:22 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
First I must say I love the simplicity of the interface. I'm not going to ask how much code and effort is behind it all because I assume it is more than I want to know. I have made a spreadsheet or two in my time to track NFL stats for bets and know you can have a mile of input to get an inch of outcome.

I looked at each prop and can see how those two inputs would correlate in some way. That is is so simple to use for at least a base. Of course I would look at the teams and think "coach x likes to do y to start the game so this one may be a bit off" but that is just what your disclaimer said. Now only if I lived in NV and could make more use of it, also get out of the crazy cold weather here...........

Second, I am sad to see and cannot believe that you have been pushed to put it here because your own website is too toxic. Thanks for showing us here, but OUCH.
The President is a fink.
January 28th, 2014 at 8:35:46 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Thanks, AZD, for the kind words.

Indeed, you don't want to know how much work went into that. This is truly my Great Wall of China. That is why I had to take it out of that thread at WoV. I felt like Beethoven might have if he played his 9th Symphony for the first time to a small group and some unknown guy in the audience said, "I can think of a dozen things wrong with that." In all fairness, maybe that guy didn't know it was something I've worked on for years, but I still took it very hard.

Please check it out again. I just added a bunch of new props to it.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
January 28th, 2014 at 9:30:57 AM permalink
Face
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 61
Posts: 3941
Quote: AZDuffman
Second, I am sad to see and cannot believe that you have been pushed to put it here because your own website is too toxic. Thanks for showing us here, but OUCH.


Agreed. I can honestly say I'm baffled.

I admire your restraint in letting opinions flow freely, even if in direct conflict with your own. That takes a noble man. I suppose my way of trying to make you feel better is to ask if that isn't a good thing. I mean, fawning is great for the ego, but isn't criticism more helpful? I find compliments to make me feel good, but ultimately devoid of use. It's always been the guys that rake me over the coals who cause me to grow the most. Granted, I didn't see the thread in question, but it's a thought.

Anyways, here. A gift ;)

Be bold and risk defeat, or be cautious and encourage it.
January 28th, 2014 at 9:49:41 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
I'm all in favor of constructive criticism, but sometimes there is a fine line between that and insults.

There are lots of people I'd love to nuke over at WoV but my hands are tied by my own rules. I just have to hope they slip up, as in the recent case of TournamentPlayer, and give me or another admin an excuse to whip out the ban hammer.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
January 28th, 2014 at 9:53:27 AM permalink
Mission146
Administrator
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 4147
Quote: Wizard


All that said, please have a look at my brand new NFL Proposition Bet Calculator. This is just the beginning and I'm sure I'll be adding a lot more props as time permits.



Wizard,

In terms of the most beautiful things I have ever seen, that calculator is third only to each of my kids being born, and it's a damn close third.
"War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen..let us give them all they want." William T. Sherman
January 28th, 2014 at 10:24:58 AM permalink
Mission146
Administrator
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 4147
Quote: Wizard
I'm all in favor of constructive criticism, but sometimes there is a fine line between that and insults.

There are lots of people I'd love to nuke over at WoV but my hands are tied by my own rules. I just have to hope they slip up, as in the recent case of TournamentPlayer, and give me or another admin an excuse to whip out the ban hammer.


Check out the Suspension list!

My banhammer has been both swift and strong, recently.
"War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen..let us give them all they want." William T. Sherman
January 28th, 2014 at 10:29:33 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Quote: Mission146
n terms of the most beautiful things I have ever seen, that calculator is third only to each of my kids being born, and it's a damn close third.


Thank you!

Quote: Mission146
Check out the Suspension list! My banhammer has been both swift and strong, recently.


Love it! My only regret is that I didn't get to do it myself.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
January 28th, 2014 at 10:41:47 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Mission146
Check out the Suspension list!


I'm quite sure I warned about something like this.

How about a new rule: off topic posts are ok, and anyone who complains about them gets a warning? I'd like to write about WINDOS for an audience larger than three people.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
January 28th, 2014 at 10:48:35 AM permalink
TheCesspit
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 23
Posts: 1929
I have nothing to add to your work apart from the fact it's awesome.
It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life
Page 1 of 212>