Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: AZDuffman

Always going to be some young and idealistic types that will always believe the goo goo myth.

It's the myth your own very favoured candidate is selling! Lets make Amerrica great Again! I'm what's best for the nation!

Thank you for making my previous point far better than I could have...

Quote: TheCesspit

It's the myth your own very favoured candidate is selling! Lets make Amerrica great Again! I'm what's best for the nation!

And Hillary is selling her "qualifications" when she let her email be hacked and could not even use the secure fax. I'll take Trump still.

Seriously, people vote for who better represents them. And sorry for the reality break, they will usually be more prone to vote for someone who "looks like them" to use the term Obama and other prefer. And seriously, SO WHAT?!

Quote: AZDuffman

And Hillary is selling her "qualifications" when she let her email be hacked and could not even use the secure fax. I'll take Trump still.

I'm not saying you should vote Clinton. You do whatever you feel like.

I am merely pointing out the irony in your position. If it's all a myth, it's a myth Trump uses. To some effect.

Clearly, the likelihood of you voting for any Democrat is about the same as me being the starting pitcher in the world series. No-one is going to convice you change your tune, and just be clear, I'm not trying to convince you otherwise.

Quote:

Seriously, people vote for who better represents them. And sorry for the reality break, they will usually be more prone to vote for someone who "looks like them" to use the term Obama and other prefer. And seriously, SO WHAT?!

AZDuffman confesses he looks like Trump.

Then again, it wouldn't be much different if he confessed he looked like Clinton....

Quote: TheCesspit

AZDuffman confesses he looks like Trump.

Trump gets hot women, worse guys to look like. Ah, Ah, Ah (Bernie) CHOO!

TRUMP 2016 ****We'll all be rich YEAH!!

WSJ journal listed 17 states that Trump will be campaigning in.

6 states that went for Romney won that still need to be defended tend to waiver towards Democrats anyway.
Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina
Indiana and North Carolina actually voted for Obama in 2008

I think that it is highly unlikely that a state that didn't vote for Obama will end up voting for Hillary. They have similar positions, but Obama had much more charm. So I don't see Trump losing any of the Romney states.


The 11 states that were carried by Obama are mostly traditional battleground states. Pennsylvania and Michigan have been conceded by Republicans in the past. These two states really make the Trump campaign unique.

TRUMP percentage of votes in Republican Primary - electoral college votes
58% Pennsylvania 20
57% Virginia 13
46% Florida 29
46% Nevada 6
36% Ohio 18
37% Michigan 10
35% New Hampshire 4
35% Wisconsin 10
33% Maine 4
24% Iowa 6
n/a Colorado 9

Romney lost by 126 electoral college votes, so TRUMP needs to win at least 63 for a tie. There are 129 electoral college votes in the 11 states.

Three possible scenarios to a minimal Trump victory

(scenario 1)Under the presumption that if Trump may do well in the general election if he did well in the primaries (68 votes)
58% Pennsylvania 20 TRUMP WINS
57% Virginia 13 TRUMP WINS
46% Florida 29 TRUMP WINS
46% Nevada 6 TRUMP WINS

(scenario 2)Under the presumption that if Trump will do well with the "white, not Latino" states (68 votes)
89.27% New Hampshire 4 (Trump still wins without NH)
88.96% Iowa 6
82.68% Ohio 18
82.32% Wisconsin 10
81.26% Pennsylvania 20
78.98% Michigan 10

(scenario 3) PA, FL, and OH with 67 votes are big enough that if Trump wins all three he's won the election. The top 9 states have half the population of the country, and Obama has won 7 of them in both elections (losing only TX and GA). This is the dream Republican scenario where their candidate takes back 3 big states.

D California
R Texas
D New York
R Florida
D Illinois
R Pennsylvania
R Ohio
D Michigan
R Georgia


All three scenarios look a little weak.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think that it is highly unlikely that a state that didn't vote for Obama will end up voting for Hillary. They have similar positions, but Obama had much more charm. So I don't see Trump losing any of the Romney states.

Arizona has a rather large Hispanic population. Trump won't worry about it, but only because he thinks he can beat you up and you'll still like him, The GOP, though, will be sweating bullets about it.

Quote:

This is the dream Republican scenario where their candidate takes back 3 big states.

I don't see Trump being able to carry either New York or California, even if every Hispanic voter there decided not to vote.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think that it is highly unlikely that a state that didn't vote for Obama will end up voting for Hillary. They have similar positions, but Obama had much more charm. So I don't see Trump losing any of the Romney states.

North Carolina, Arizona, and Missouri seem to be Hillary's best bet for stealing Romney states from Trump. Possibly Indiana as well, now that Evan Bayh will make the senate race there competitive for the Dems.

She is polling ahead in North Carolina.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/

Quote: Nareed

I don't see Trump being able to carry either New York or California, even if every Hispanic voter there decided not to vote.

Despite Trump's earlier bluster about campaigning in New York, California and New Jersey his campaign managers have told him that it is simply a waste of money. Barack Obama said similar things in 2008, that he was going to campaign in all 50 states.

A third of the population over age 18 lives in just 4 states, while half of it lives in just 9 states.
President Obama won 8 of these 9 states in 2008, and 7 of 9 states in 2012 (losing North Carolina to Romney). Texas has, of course, voted Republican 9 times in a row.

Cumulative over age 18
12% California
20% Texas
27% Florida
33% New York
37% Pennsylvania
41% Illinois
45% Ohio
48% North Carolina
51% Michigan

It is the dream of a Republican Candidate to confine Democratic wins in these 9 states to CA, NY, and IL

Quote: Pacomartin

It is the dream of a Republican Candidate to confine Democratic wins in these 9 states to CA, NY, and IL

Not this year.

The explanation is simple: in a year when the Democrats offer up a candidate with BIG negatives, the GOP goes and finds a candidate with HUGE negatives.

It's not that they want to shoot themselves in the foot with a pistol. They want to shoot themselves in the head with artillery.

I'll go as far as to say the GOP ought to worry about the large Hispanic population in Texas.