Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: Aussie

Let's put the partisanship to the side for a moment. What do people honestly think the electoral college count might look like here?

Quote: Nareed

Not as astonishing as Reagan v Mondale in 84.

Trump's campaign will concede 201 electoral college votes to Hillary without challenging her (14 states +DC). At the same time he will assume that he can get 143 electoral college votes (19 states) without spending a dime or a day on the campaign trail. It's a waste of money to spend money in these states

6 Utah
3 Wyoming
7 Oklahoma
4 Idaho
5 W Virginia
6 Arkansas
9 Alabama
8 Kentucky
5 Nebraska
6 Kansas
11 Tennessee
3 N Dakota
3 S Dakota
8 Louisiana
38 Texas
3 Montana
6 Mississippi
3 Alaska
9 S Carolina
143

These five states did not vote for Obama, and Trump doubts that they will vote for Hillary, but they are too important to ignore. So Trump will campaign there. However, if he loses one of these states, he has little or no chance at victory.

11 Indiana
10 Missouri
11 Arizona
16 Georgia
15 N Carolina
63


So 143+63=206 which was Romney's total, only 5 more than the votes Trump has conceded to Hillary without a fight.

These are the 12 states which Obama won (ordered by importance), that Trump will campaign in. They total 131 electoral college votes. If Trump can win 63 votes then he will have a tie which will go into the House of Representatives who get one vote per state . Then Trump will win the tie breaker.
29 Florida
20 Pennsylvania
18 Ohio
16 Michigan
13 Virginia
10 Minnesota
10 Wisconsin
9 Colorado
6 Nevada
6 Iowa
4 Maine
4 New Hampshire
137

My personal opinion is that Trump has already lost Florida, Colorado, Virginia and Nevada. His best chance of winning is to take
20 Pennsylvania
18 Ohio
6 Iowa

And then take 2 out of 3 of
10 Minnesota
10 Wisconsin

would simply be icing on the cake for the GOP
16 Michigan
4 New Hampshire

It is a difficult task, and the odds are with Hillary. But her getting sick and refusing to concede, or another terrorist attack, or a massive downturn in the economy in the next three months could change those odds.

You ducked Paco. Prediction? :-)
anyway
Here in the key Tampa market in the Florida battleground state
Not seeing any anti-Clinton ads
Seeing a lot of anti Trump ads
The 2 main ones playing over and over are the children watching Trump which I already posted
and this one below
(edit) is youtube blocking DT? Video not working and noticed a video EB posted not working. maybe its my computer?
here is link to below video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dtk1eX7UBE

Quote: terapined

You ducked Paco. Prediction? :-)

Trump 244, Hillary wins!

I am going to give Trump all states that did not vote for Obama, and PA and OH.

Quote: Pacomartin

Trump 244, Hillary wins!

I am going to give Trump all states that did not vote for Obama, and PA and OH.

I really don't think he's going to do that well. "Solid Republican" is hardly the same as "Solid Trump." Essentially this year the GOP is running a wacko independent.

He has time to undo some of the damage he has inflicted on himself, but that's not in his character. Most likely he'll keep shooting himself in the foot. When his campaign can do nothing more than limp along, he'll go after the other foot. That's in his nature.

You know the old cliché in the mad scientist B-movie. "They told me I was crazy..."? Experienced politicians and political operatives have been telling Trump he's crazy to spew bigotry and hatred openly. He didn't believe them. Then he won the primaries and the nomination, so now he really doesn't believe them. He should be finding out the general election is vastly different from the primaries. But even if he does, he'll fall back on what worked for him before, what won him the nomination.

Assuming he's not completely blind to reality, then perhaps by a month before the election he'll try to do damage control. That will be too little too late.

Quote: Aussie

Let's put the partisanship to the side for a moment. What do people honestly think the electoral college count might look like here?

I have made my prediction that Trump gets zero electoral votes. His gaffes are diverse and mounting, and I would predict a major inappropriate statement that will alienate even the most avid Conservatives/Republicans. The number of mainstream Republicans disavowing him continues to grow daily. I believe that at some point Paul Ryan will withdraw his support, and that will start the Trump campaign death spiral.
The only way I see any other result is if Assange really has anything on Hillary that the low information American voter will understand AND care about.

Quote: Nareed

Assuming he's not completely blind to reality, then perhaps by a month before the election he'll try to do damage control. That will be too little too late.

A consistent change for a period of weeks would be such a contrast to what he normally does, it would probably help him a lot more than most. But I still think it would be too little too late.

Of course, Hillary has to maintain, and not find a way to shoot her own foot in some spectacular unknown manner. This should be easy, unless something is going to drop from the past.

Quote: rxwine

A consistent change for a period of weeks would be such a contrast to what he normally does, it would probably help him a lot more than most. But I still think it would be too little too late.

the other thing is if he starts to walk back some of his most outrageous statements, he'll lose support among his base. That's because he'll look like a regular politician. He could try to say we need to reform the immigration system, using air quotes when he says "reform," and winking at the audience. But he'd still lose support among his base, and not gain much from other quarters.

Really, the GOP should just cut him off, and spend all their resources trying to maintain their numbers in the House and Senate, and in state governments. If you're going to be in the opposition for the next term, it makes sense to be as strong an opposition as you can be. They cut off Dole late in his campaign when it was clear he'd lose.

If they do this, they'll make a lot of Trump supporters very angry. So much so they might leave the GOP. So, no downside there. But they'll also make a lot of mainstream Republicans angry as well. It's one thing to cut your losses near the end of the campaign, it's quite another to vote no confidence months before the election.

But that's a tactical loss, while losing control of Congress as well as the presidency is a strategic one. Besides, good showings in Congressional and state elections will mollify many in the mainstream group and keep them aboard for the mid-terms and the next general election cycle.

Quote:

Of course, Hillary has to maintain, and not find a way to shoot her own foot in some spectacular unknown manner. This should be easy, unless something is going to drop from the past.

There might be something hidden in her checkered past, yes. But it would have to be big, and I mean really BIG. And simple. The email kerfuffle just flies above the heads of most people. Think. You don't see Democrats going after Trump for obscure financial deals to finance this or that failed building project (see what I did there?)

Quote: SOOPOO

I have made my prediction that Trump gets zero electoral votes. His gaffes are diverse and mounting, and I would predict a major inappropriate statement that will alienate even the most avid Conservatives/Republicans.

I think you are reflecting personal opinion into your prediction. The 19 states where Trump is not even campaigning are almost certain to vote for Trump.

38 Texas
11 Tennessee
9 Alabama
9 S Carolina
8 Kentucky
8 Louisiana
7 Oklahoma
6 Utah
6 Arkansas
6 Kansas
6 Mississippi
5 W Virginia
5 Nebraska
4 Idaho
3 Wyoming
3 N Dakota
3 S Dakota
3 Montana
3 Alaska
143

Although Trump will campaign in these 5 states where Obama lost most analysts have already put Indiana and Missouri into the certain category

11 Indiana (voted Democrat for POTUS in 2008)
10 Missouri (voted Democrat for POTUS in 1976, 1992 and 1996)
Arizona (voted Democrat for POTUS in 1996)
Georgia (voted Democrat for POTUS in 1976, 1980 and 1992)
N Carolina (voted Democrat for POTUS in 1976 and 2008)

There are people who hate Hillary so much that they would vote for Francisco Franco over her.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think you are reflecting personal opinion into your prediction. The 19 states where Trump is not even campaigning are almost certain to vote for Trump.

38 Texas
11 Tennessee
9 Alabama
9 S Carolina
8 Kentucky
8 Louisiana
7 Oklahoma
6 Utah
6 Arkansas
6 Kansas
6 Mississippi
5 W Virginia
5 Nebraska
4 Idaho
3 Wyoming
3 N Dakota
3 S Dakota
3 Montana
3 Alaska
143

There was a poll yesterday showing Trump was only up by 2 points in South Carolina.

And Utah is extremely problematic for Trump. Mormons despise him.

Quote: ams288

There was a poll yesterday showing Trump was only up by 2 points in South Carolina.

That is pretty narrow. South Carolina has not voted Democrat since 1976 and Jimmy Carter.

South Carolina Obama 44.09%, Romney 54.56%

Quote: ams288

And Utah is extremely problematic for Trump. Mormons despise him.

But they are still never going to vote for Hillary.

Hillary has always been the favored candidate. But I think predictions of a complete slaughter are premature.
In 1984 Mondale won his home state of Minnesota by less than 4K votes, or .2% of the vote.