Biden's Biggest Blunder

Quote: rxwine

Congrats, I had to look up a word. I kinda guessed what it was but wasn't quite right.

Thanks. You're welcome to live in our new country, if you wish.

Quote: Mission146

Do you suppose that the ships (and, more importantly, the stuff on the ships) exist in the ether until they get near our docks?

The short answer is that there was a significant change in consumer habits as a direct result of the pandemic, which was also accompanied by a (positive) change in short-term financial well-being for a great many people.

In short, people had money, but were mostly not going anywhere and doing things; they were mostly just ordering goods to be delivered to their homes. As a result, there was a rapid (and not totally temporary) change from consumers spending mostly on service to spending mostly on goods.

In the meantime, you had the rent forgiveness stuff, expanded Unemployment benefits, increased Unemployment benefits and stimulus checks...most of that would have been under Trump---though I am not putting the current issue on Trump.

The result of all of those things was people with discretionary income who did not used to have discretionary income. In the case of some of them, they were probably just ordering goods that they were, "Behind on," or however you would want to put it, mostly owing to existing with just enough money to make ends meet prior to the pandemic. For many, you suddenly have all of this money, but you can't just go to a baseball game or restaurant---because all of that stuff is closed.

Resulting, you have a general supply chain that has been built to be as efficient as possible based on a demand breakdown that, Great Recession aside (which only decreased general demand for everything), had remained unchanged.

With that, we have covered the general increase in the demand for goods, rather than services.

And, you DID start to see the effects last year, it's just that most consumers didn't. Please see Page 20:

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf

Going to April of 2020, you'll see that our imports plummeted over the course of a few months. Much of that had to do with economic uncertainty, but the biggest part of it was simply manufacturing halts as a result of the pandemic.

However, at that time, most companies were already well-stocked, not just in stores, but the warehouses were at their normal volumes.

It's a decline that takes a certain amount of time to play out. If you see a particular good that's out of stock, it's not because everyone in the country woke up on some random Tuesday morning and decided they were going to buy one. It's because demand outpaced the supply infrastructure that was already in place for that item for a number of months.

You used to cook for yourself two days a week and now you're doing it six...probably time to upgrade your kitchen inventory, that sort of thing.

Finally, you will look at imports for 2021, to date. Pick ANY month in 2021 and you will see that we are bringing in more goods than we did the highest month of 2019, which was May.

There's more consumer demand, companies are trying to react to the demand (and restock, in general), so there's more demand for the ports. Other countries are also pumping this stuff out just as quickly as they can because I'm sure they can use the money after last year.

So, you can't just click your fingers and new infrastructure magically exists. The current infrastructure that is in place was made to efficiently meet a relatively stable demand for goods, which is now being drastically exceeded.

I have two problems with this. First is that longshoremen are a hiring hall union. You show up, put up your card, and are either assigned work or not. There has never been a shortage of these guys as they pay very well. Stories abound about having to pay off a steward to even get your union card in the first place. These are not guys who are going to stay at home for $300 a week.

As to volume, unless we are at record volumes we should have the capacity. Even at record volumes there should still be spare capacity. Something is causing ships to have to wait. I say it is some kind of new regulation or the unions intentionally slowing things to get more money for the rank and file or/and money to expand the docks.

Quote: AZDuffman

I have two problems with this. First is that longshoremen are a hiring hall union. You show up, put up your card, and are either assigned work or not. There has never been a shortage of these guys as they pay very well. Stories abound about having to pay off a steward to even get your union card in the first place. These are not guys who are going to stay at home for $300 a week.

As to volume, unless we are at record volumes we should have the capacity. Even at record volumes there should still be spare capacity. Something is causing ships to have to wait. I say it is some kind of new regulation or the unions intentionally slowing things to get more money for the rank and file or/and money to expand the docks.

We're either at or near record volumes:

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/080921-us-container-import-volumes-to-peak-in-august-at-record-237-million-teus-nrf

And have been for a few months.

What would your problem be with expanding the docks? It seems to me that the docks aren't prepared for this.

All I can do is be right. I can't make you believe me. That's why I asked whether or not you wanted the answer.

ADDED: Nothing to do with dock workers staying home. People with money buy things. People who didn't have (discretionary) money before, now do, and are buying goods...hence the record demand and imports.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Mission146

Do you suppose that the ships (and, more importantly, the stuff on the ships) exist in the ether until they get near our docks?

The short answer is that there was a significant change in consumer habits as a direct result of the pandemic, which was also accompanied by a (positive) change in short-term financial well-being for a great many people.

In short, people had money, but were mostly not going anywhere and doing things; they were mostly just ordering goods to be delivered to their homes. As a result, there was a rapid (and not totally temporary) change from consumers spending mostly on service to spending mostly on goods.

In the meantime, you had the rent forgiveness stuff, expanded Unemployment benefits, increased Unemployment benefits and stimulus checks...most of that would have been under Trump---though I am not putting the current issue on Trump.

The result of all of those things was people with discretionary income who did not used to have discretionary income. In the case of some of them, they were probably just ordering goods that they were, "Behind on," or however you would want to put it, mostly owing to existing with just enough money to make ends meet prior to the pandemic. For many, you suddenly have all of this money, but you can't just go to a baseball game or restaurant---because all of that stuff is closed.

Resulting, you have a general supply chain that has been built to be as efficient as possible based on a demand breakdown that, Great Recession aside (which only decreased general demand for everything), had remained unchanged.

With that, we have covered the general increase in the demand for goods, rather than services.

And, you DID start to see the effects last year, it's just that most consumers didn't. Please see Page 20:

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf

Going to April of 2020, you'll see that our imports plummeted over the course of a few months. Much of that had to do with economic uncertainty, but the biggest part of it was simply manufacturing halts as a result of the pandemic.

However, at that time, most companies were already well-stocked, not just in stores, but the warehouses were at their normal volumes.

It's a decline that takes a certain amount of time to play out. If you see a particular good that's out of stock, it's not because everyone in the country woke up on some random Tuesday morning and decided they were going to buy one. It's because demand outpaced the supply infrastructure that was already in place for that item for a number of months.

You used to cook for yourself two days a week and now you're doing it six...probably time to upgrade your kitchen inventory, that sort of thing.

Finally, you will look at imports for 2021, to date. Pick ANY month in 2021 and you will see that we are bringing in more goods than we did the highest month of 2019, which was May.

There's more consumer demand, companies are trying to react to the demand (and restock, in general), so there's more demand for the ports. Other countries are also pumping this stuff out just as quickly as they can because I'm sure they can use the money after last year.

So, you can't just click your fingers and new infrastructure magically exists. The current infrastructure that is in place was made to efficiently meet a relatively stable demand for goods, which is now being drastically exceeded.

I have two problems with this. First is that longshoremen are a hiring hall union. You show up, put up your card, and are either assigned work or not. There has never been a shortage of these guys as they pay very well. Stories abound about having to pay off a steward to even get your union card in the first place. These are not guys who are going to stay at home for $300 a week.

As to volume, unless we are at record volumes we should have the capacity. Even at record volumes there should still be spare capacity. Something is causing ships to have to wait. I say it is some kind of new regulation or the unions intentionally slowing things to get more money for the rank and file or/and money to expand the docks.

That is all true about Longshoreman. That is not the main issue.

It's transit (Trucks and trains, and Port workers), there is not a way to get rid of the containers fast enough. Trucks alone, massive container truck driver shortage, there just are not enough truck drivers


That is why we have 22 ships just sitting and waiting today.

It's not some conspiracy, port can only hold X number of containers. Port reaches that number, ships have to be held until enough container are picked up by Trucks/trains to make room for a new offload.

The single biggest problem is Trucks driver shortage (including drayage). There simply is a massive labor shortage right now, and this industry seems to be effected greatly.

In case you missed the Beijing Joe Town Hall here's the highlights in 34 seconds. What is he doing with his fists at one point? Spooky..

https://twitter.com/i/status/1451571116326146055

I agree with what Gandler said, but that still comes back to a demand for goods-both imported and domestic. Gandler’s point indirectly impacts the ports (because trucks are also doing domestic), but it ultimately comes back to staggering demand for consumer goods.

Quote: Evenbob

In case you missed the Beijing Joe Town Hall here's the highlights in 34 seconds. What is he doing with his fists at one point? Spooky..

https://twitter.com/i/status/1451571116326146055

Stand up and do what Beijing Joe is doing with his fists and see what your frame of mind is. It's something I would do if I was stressed out and trying to pay attention. Is what a child does, adopts that attitude with the fists. Very odd to see an actual adult do it and even weirder to see the president doing it. It's kind of frightening.

Quote: Mission146

I agree with what Gandler said, but that still comes back to a demand for goods-both imported and domestic. Gandler’s point indirectly impacts the ports (because trucks are also doing domestic), but it ultimately comes back to staggering demand for consumer goods.

There is, but not to the level that would cause this backlog. Its more simple than people are making it out be, ports are limited in capacity and are at the mercy of how fast containers can be removed.

There is simply a math problem, without getting too into the weeds with TEUs (container size and actual capacity of the ship). Let's be ultra simplistic and say 5k containers per ship.

So when each ship is dropping off 5k containers (I am vastly simplifying numbers), and they can only be trickled away (1 at a time via truck, or several dozen to several hundred via train, though trains take longer to load and plan and obviously can't be taken to a direct delivery destination), its easy to see how the ports can max capacity when truck driver shortages increase. Even Pre-COVID trucking has had shortage issues, COVID made it far worse, and many people are just leaving (old school people deciding to retire, switching careers, and far less young people are coming in because its viewed as an industry with a limited lifespan, which is probably true and smart planning, but in the short term this is problematic). When ports were borderline staying afloat before (as far as keeping room for containers, by keeping it moving, not financial), its easy to see how a 20-40% reduction in truck drivers can easily put them in a problematic area, in which the backlog not just exists, but grows (the more ships that arrive and are held, the more it will continue to grow day by day, its an exponential problem).

So its very easy to see how such massive ships delivering thousands per ship, and only being removed one at a time can cause a stalemate at max capacity while some ships have to wait for days or weeks to offload when even Pre-Covid many ports struggled to barely stay under capacity. (Apparently its actually 30% worse than Pre-Pandemic, and I am going to guess OTR jobs -IE shipping containers- would be even worse as truckers who still are working now have options to only accept local routes if they want so people are going to feel less pressure to accept jobs where they are away for weeks at a time, but that is just my personal speculation)

The only regulation that anyone can point to that is causing shipping issues (related to ports) right now is Trump's tariffs, nothing to do with Biden (and even that to be totally fair is minimal), and has only to do with prices, not the issues with port backlog. There is no Biden regulation that is causing this (if there was there would be endless posts about it). -That is not a response to you, but the others who keep saying there is probably one, but cannot point to it-. And, I don't see any conservatives saying that Trump's tariffs should be removed to lower prices (especially in regards to China).....
I guess "Bejing Joe" is too senile to realize that he is harming his controllers (that is sarcasm)....

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-07/tariffs-on-china-are-destructive-and-they-are-here-to-stay

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/19/economy/trucking-short-drivers/index.html

The demand arguments are certainly valid, but that alone would not come close to the scale of issues that we have (at least not in relation to talking about strictly the Port). The driver and general labor shortage pose a far larger problem. Ships are scheduled to arrive at specific dates (armadas of container ships do not just roll up to random ports, at least not in America), based on capacity, they would not schedule dozens more ships than the port can hold. They simply did not plan for the containers to be removed as slow as they have been so the ships are stuck unable to unload their cargo, that is the factor the port cannot control (at the mercy of trucking companies and rail companies).

Beijing Joe yesterday in Scranton Pennsylvania:

"I commuted every single day for 36 years as vice president of the United States after my wife and daughter were killed."

So now he thinks he's was VP for 36 years. Time for another nap, Gramps. The big question everybody is asking is who's really in charge cuz we all know it sure ain't this guy.

A lot of people are speculating about what the old man was doing the other night at the Town Hall. He stood this way for almost a minute, was he fighting back a big dump he had to take? Did he forget he's not at the nursing home but on national TV? This is not normal behavior folks, this is the kind of stuff mentally unstable people do. If you know where you are, {hint: on national TV) you do not do stuff like this because it makes you look like a moron. So obviously he had no idea where he was or what he was doing. And this guy is in charge? Sure he is, just like some day brain-dead bimbo Heels-Up Harris is going to be president. Never gonna happen.