Yet another aviation thread.

March 28th, 2017 at 9:01:50 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 306
Posts: 10278
Quote: Pacomartin
Now that makes a lot of sense.


<bows>


Quote:
I can fly 1000 miles to FT Lauderdale for as little as $97 each way on Wednesday on Allegiant Air. But what would New Yorkers who own those fancy mansions in Ft Lauderdale pay to save 90 minutes of flying time?


Most won't fly Allegiant :)

In part it's a function of price vs convenience. If the Boom can do the route for the price of domestic first class, then maybe it can succeed. If it's more expensive, 90 minutes just isn't too long a time.

The Concorde used to fly to MEX from JFK. At the time I'd assumed the flight was over land and water, mostly subsonic. Later I learned it took a longer route mostly over water and mostly supersonic (tracing the US east coast and turning past Florida). That's one route that might work. And with a stop at MEX, one can envision flights to South America (likely the stop would be at Panama City, though).

Quote:
I suppose we are conditioned to thinking that supersonic is only for transoceanic travel, but NYC to Ft Lauderdale is almost all over water as well.


There's that. But it's only due to restrictions on sonic booms over land.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
March 28th, 2017 at 1:15:03 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 664
Posts: 7605
Quote: Nareed
In part it's a function of price vs convenience. If the Boom can do the route for the price of domestic first class, then maybe it can succeed. If it's more expensive, 90 minutes just isn't too long a time.


A full price first class ticket one way from JFK -FLL nonstop for tomorrow is under $1000 except for in the evening where it is $1500.
The flight is scheduled for 3h 15m (1,069 miles) on a Boeing 717 or an MD-88.
8:05a - 11:30a $973.20
10:45a - 2:07p $973.20
1:25p - 4:40p $973.20
3:30p - 7:06p $973.20
7:25p - 10:55p $1,507.20 (newer Boeing 737-800)

The question is can a Boom airplane run 1000 miles each way for ~ $2000 round trip? It might be possible. Rich New Yorkers with beachfront mansions in Fort Lauderdale may only have 48-72 hours for their visit, and they may be willing to pay a lot to save 3 hours of transit.

I have trouble estimating the value of "status". If you are practical, you tend to think what is 3 hours of your time worth. But it is still relatively small amount of money to become a supersonic jetsetter.
March 28th, 2017 at 1:39:54 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 306
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Quote: Pacomartin
The question is can a Boom airplane run 1000 miles each way for ~ $2000 round trip? It might be possible. Rich New Yorkers with beachfront mansions in Fort Lauderdale may only have 48-72 hours for their visit, and they may be willing to pay a lot to save 3 hours of transit.


Two other points:

1) Some people like to flaunt their spending.
2) How many wealthy New Yorkers travel to Florida on a private jet? A supersonic airliner may seem preferable than a slow Citation.

And there's Concorde nostalgia at a fraction of the cost, as you point out.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
March 28th, 2017 at 6:28:15 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 664
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Quote: Nareed
How many wealthy New Yorkers travel to Florida on a private jet? A supersonic airliner may seem preferable than a slow Citation.


Overall, 11,261 private jets were registered for use in the United States, and 7,997 in the rest of the world.

Any commercial service including the Etihad Cabin is going to look like a good price compared to a private jet. That;s why they are so eager to make the comparison.

Probably a better question is how many first class seats does Delta fly the 1000 miles from JFK to Fort Lauderdale in a day?
I would guess about 80 seats in first class.
Now some will go empty, some will go to upgrades, and some will be sold simply because there are more flights per day.
But on the other hand you will attract some new passengers that are simply curious.

So, I think it is reasonable that Delta could operate a single Boom aircraft out of JFK to four different daily destinations in Florida or Georgia.

Now if you want to fly nonstop to Japan from JFK you must fly on All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines. But Delta could offer a supersonic connection from JFK to ATL (760 miles) as a sort of thrill ride, to passengers who want to fly to Japan. Business class passengers flying to Japan are paying good money.

It sounds funny to think of a supersonic connection, but it might work from a business stand point. It may not even make sense from a travel time standpoint, but people may do it just for the thrill, if the overall trip costs about the same as the nonstop on the Japanese airlines.

Delta Narrowbody Jets
Embraer E-170 (E70) 9 First
Embraer E-175 (E75) 12 First
McDonnell Douglas MD-88 (M88) 16 First
McDonnell Douglas MD-90 (M90) 16 First
Airbus A319 (319) 12 First
Airbus A320 (320/32K) 16 First
Airbus A320 (320/32R) 12 First
Airbus A321 (321) 20 First
Boeing 717-200 (717) 12 First
Boeing 737-700 (73W) 12 First
Boeing 737-800 (73H) 16 First
Boeing 737-900ER (739) 20 First

I don't know if any surveys were done about the Concorde, but I have to believe that a big percentage of passengers didn't really care about saving 3.5 hours, they just wanted the thrill of flying supersonic.
March 28th, 2017 at 8:58:29 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 47
Posts: 4158
Quote: Pacomartin
but I have to believe that a big percentage of passengers didn't really care about saving 3.5 hours, they just wanted the thrill of flying supersonic.
Or being seen to be flying supersonic or seen as someone powerful enough to do it at shareholder's expense. Tell your opposite number and say we will resume negotiations after I arrive on the Concorde... its a ploy as much as anything else.
March 28th, 2017 at 10:33:39 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 664
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Quote: Fleastiff
Tell your opposite number and say we will resume negotiations after I arrive on the Concorde... its a ploy as much as anything else.


In keeping with Nareed's earlier post, perhaps flying over the water from the Northeast to Florida will mean that millions of tickets will be sold at $1000 each way. That will build a groundswell of public opinion to change the laws and permit supersonic transcontinental flights over land and the market for the plane will grow exponentially

It's an interesting idea. I always thought that supersonic transport would have to develop around major California to Asia routes.
LAX NRT 5,451 mi
LAX ICN 5,994 mi
LAX TPE 6,799 mi
SFO ICN 5,658 m
SFO TPE 6,469 mi
SFO HKG 6,927 mi

Globe shows top 4 international destinations from LAX and SFO


But this Boom Technology cannot surpass 5000 miles. So it may serve Seattle and Vancouver to Tokyo only
YVR NRT 4,674 mi
SEA NRT 4,769 mi


A map of all busiest international destinations over 1400 miles shows a few more potential supersonic candidates like NYC to Dominican Republic, and Tokyo to Guam and Honolulu. Even JFK to Madrid, Paris and Frankfurt if you don't lose to much speed flying over land.




Here is a list of the most popular international routes for Sept 2016 and distance in statute miles. I think most of the airport codes are obvious, but I annotated some of the more obscure ones.

7,488 LAX - SYD
6,927 SFO - HKG
6,849 JFK - DXB Dubai
6,799 LAX - TPE
6,485 LAX - PVG Shanghai
5,670 LAX - CDG Paris
5,456 LAX - LHR
5,451 LAX - NRT Narita (Tokyo)
4,406 MIA - EZE Buenos Aires
4,394 ATL - CDG Paris
3,953 ORD - LHR
3,856 JFK - FRA
3,819 HNL - NRT
3,635 JFK - CDG Paris
3,589 JFK - MAD
3,465 EWR - LHR
3,451 JFK - LHR <=============== Primary candidate of supersonic travel
2,176 LAX - YYZ Toronto
1,558 GUM - NRT
1,549 JFK - SDQ Dominican Republic
1,475 JFK - STI Dominican Republic
1,081 LAX - YVR Vancouver
800 SFO - YVR Vancouver
763 IAH - MEX
436 ORD - YYZ Toronto
357 LGA - YYZ Toronto
March 29th, 2017 at 7:43:29 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 306
Posts: 10278
Quote: Pacomartin
So, I think it is reasonable that Delta could operate a single Boom aircraft out of JFK to four different daily destinations in Florida or Georgia.


The thing airlines will love about short supersonic travel, is that you can cram in more flights per day.

Quote:
I don't know if any surveys were done about the Concorde, but I have to believe that a big percentage of passengers didn't really care about saving 3.5 hours, they just wanted the thrill of flying supersonic.


I was going to unleash my inner cynic and say that you can't feel Mach 2.2+, but that's unfair.

You can't feel Mach 2.2+. But SSTs fly far higher than regular jets. That's quite an experience. I don't think Concorde flew high enough to see the Earth's curvature, but maybe it got you a peek of dark blue sky.

The thing is to normalize SSTs on overland routes. No one will object to spending less time in the air.

Though you'll get to the point where the extra time on the ground becomes more and more annoying, and people will resent it even more. Current guidelines in MEX tell you to arrive to the airport 3 hours prior to departure. Imagine that for a 3.5 hour flight.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
March 29th, 2017 at 11:57:02 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 664
Posts: 7605
Quote: Nareed
The thing airlines will love about short supersonic travel, is that you can cram in more flights per day.


Well Southwest made a nice profit by cramming in more subsonic flights per day. One wonders if you can make a viable business model of the same thing at supersonic speeds.

Southwest average aircraft trip length is 757 miles with an average duration of two hours and two minutes. The average passenger airfare was $154.85 one way, and the average passenger trip length was approximately 994 miles.

But as you said earlier, even if you could fly 757 miles in forty minutes instead of two hours, it wouldn't make a difference unless you had special treatment on ground and through security.


Quote: Nareed
But SSTs fly far higher than regular jets. That's quite an experience. I don't think Concorde flew high enough to see the Earth's curvature, but maybe it got you a peek of dark blue sky.


Even at the minimum altitude for space (100 km) you can only see for a radius of 750 miles without clouds. That's not enough to see all of Mexico at once. Is it worth a quarter of a million dollars?

It's like asking if hotel prices are really worth it to stay on St Bart's in the Caribbean. You are unlikely to find a room for less than $400. Probably not, if you compare what you get for your money, but that is the price you pay to stay on St Bart's Island.
March 29th, 2017 at 2:25:22 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 47
Posts: 4158
Bombardier CS100 just made test flight London to NYC carrying 150 passenger simulated load.
March 29th, 2017 at 2:37:51 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 664
Posts: 7605
Quote: Fleastiff
Bombardier CS100 just made test flight London to NYC carrying 150 passenger simulated load.


The important thing is that the plane took off from London City airport (opened 1987) that has only a 5000' runway.

Heathrow has two runways 12,000' and 12,800'.
La Guardia has two 7,000' runways
JFK has four runways
8,400 Asphalt
9,999 Asphalt
12,079 Asphalt
14,511 Concrete