Yet another aviation thread.

Delta publishes a list by model of the 191 jets they lease versus the 656 jets they own.
https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/about-delta/corporate-information/aircraft-fleet.html

Quote: Nareed

I'd take a minimal return, but not a break even position. Just leaving a few millions in a savings account would do better than break even :)

In 2014 Doric rebranded as Amedeo.

Quote: Dr. Peter Hein, Doric’s managing director, lessor for Emirates A380, November 18, 2013

“Over the 12-year lease, the debt is fully amortized and the investor(s) [get] more than 100 percent of the equity investment in distributions. The relevant amounts to pay debt service plus distributions result from the contractual monthly lease rents. At Year 12, investors have a positive return already, plus an unencumbered plane with four engines.

“Investors do not assume that the plane including the four engines will be scrapped, but will create further income. [This] can result from re-leasing to the existing lessees for a couple of years; shorter term leases to other parties; sale of the plane; [or] scrapping. We also act as remarketing agent for third parties and have some recent experience there.”

Hein admits that it is still early days to assess the A380’s future. “I think we cannot say much…at this point in time…The aircraft is still in its infancy,” he said. He expects more lessors to enter the market and, to underline his optimism, cites data from a presentation by John Leahy, Airbus chief commercial officer for customers, showing the A380 outselling the Boeing 747-8 eight to one. “The broader the market becomes, the more lessors will enter the market. For sure there is substantial potential for the type.”

Emirates is believed to own half of it's A380s and lease the other half. Ditto for the Boeing B777. So I stand corrected, Emirates does have a right to be concerned about resale value.

This chart must be dating the 12 years from first flight, because dating from delivery has the first jets becoming 12 years old in 2020.


I think Emirates is delaying the delivery of the last 30 A380s. It is quite possible that Airbus will simply shut down the production line because they can't operate it profitably with so few deliveries. At one point Airbus was saying it needed to deliver 30 a year to break even. They delivered 28 in 2016 but will deliver far fewer in 2017.

I think they are only on their 8th delivery so far this year.

xxx Airbus A380-800 A6-EUY Emirates Aug 2017 Active F-WWSX
241 Airbus A380-800 A6-EUX Emirates Jul 2017 Active F-WWSG
237 Airbus A380-800 A6-APJ Etihad Airways May 2017 Active F-WWAR
229 Airbus A380-800 A6-EUQ Emirates May 2017 Active F-WWSF
197 Airbus A380-800 A7-APH Qatar Airways May 2017 Active F-WWAS
228 Airbus A380-800 A6-EUP Emirates Mar 2017 Active F-WWSC
233 Airbus A380-800 A6-API Etihad Airways Mar 2017 Active F-WWAK
221 Airbus A380-800 A6-EUI Emirates Feb 2017 Active F-WWAF

The percentage of leased aircraft is steadily growing and is currently at about 1/3.

Now, here's a way to mess with short haul air travel: https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/22/cabin-sleep-pod-bus-review/

I've proposed doing this with self-driving vehicles. Cabin is the net best thing. But $230 round trip strikes me as expensive for a bus, even with the sleeping pods.

Quote: Nareed

Now, here's a way to mess with short haul air travel: https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/22/cabin-sleep-pod-bus-review/

I've proposed doing this with self-driving vehicles. Cabin is the net best thing. But $230 round trip strikes me as expensive for a bus, even with the sleeping pods.

Some people see it as a way to avoid having two extra nights in a hotel. As opposed to flying plus taxi or uber fare to the airport.


OCC is a 8 hour bus trip from Oaxaca City to Huatulco and the price is 705 MXN = 39.90USD round trip
That is a 44 passenger bus. I think I paid a little more to get on a 25 passenger bus that had lie flat seats.

Quote: Pacomartin

Some people see it as a way to avoid having two extra nights in a hotel. As opposed to flying plus taxi or uber fare to the airport.

I can see many advantages over flying, but you'd still need a cab or uber for getting to and from the bus stop.

Quote:

OCC is a 8 hour bus trip from Oaxaca City to Huatulco and the price is 705 MXN = 39.90USD round trip
That is a 44 passenger bus. I think I paid a little more to get on a 25 passenger bus that had lie flat seats.

You can fly to Huatulco form MEX :)

I can see how you get to that price compared to flying. A bus is a much lower investment in capital than a plane, and uses up much less fuel, but also carries fewer passengers. then, too, a sleeping pod bus makes sense only for overnight trips. So it would spend 16 hours of every 24 just parked. Then there's laundry for the bedding every trip, and the salaries for three staff (driver and two attendants)

So, how about a bus with airline-style lie-flat seats? It would be great for trips lasting over 8 hours. Sure, the tickets would be expensive, but such a bus could operate all day long. There'd still be laundry, though.

Quote: Nareed

So, how about a bus with airline-style lie-flat seats? It would be great for trips lasting over 8 hours. Sure, the tickets would be expensive, but such a bus could operate all day long. There'd still be laundry, though.

They got pretty close to lie flat on the ADO Platino class. They are understandably very popular for long trips at night. Only 25 seats per bus.




When I was in Huatulco almost everyone there was from Mexico City, but it was off season.

It looks like Huatulco is much more popular with Canadians than Americans.

Sun Country Airlines Seasonal: Minneapolis–Saint Paul
United Express Seasonal: Houston-Intercontinental
Volaris Chicago-O'Hare (begins November 18, 2017)

Air Canada Seasonal: Toronto-Pearson
Air Canada Rouge Seasonal: Calgary
Air Transat Seasonal: Edmonton (begins December 18, 2017), Regina, Toronto-Pearson
Sunwing Airlines Seasonal: Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto-Pearson, Vancouver, Victoria, Winnipeg
WestJet Seasonal: Calgary, Edmonton (begins November 2, 2017), Toronto-Pearson, Vancouver (begins October 29, 2017)

Quote: Pacomartin

They got pretty close to lie flat on the ADO Platino class. They are understandably very popular for long trips at night. Only 25 seats per bus.

I wonder if they have blankets, too. For sure there's no proper bedding (ie mattress pad, pillow, duvet).

The idea of a sleep-pod bus works well with overnight trips of about 8 hours, seeing as that is about a full night's sleep for most people. It may work for shorter trips, too. a convertible seat works better for both shorter and longer trips. though I admit trips longer than 8 hours in a bus may be too much for most people. Mexico to Monterrey takes about 11 hours by bus.

Now, consider Mexico to Guanajuato or León. the first is a drive of about 3:30-4:00 hours, the latter about 5. Say 4 and 5 for a bus. Flying takes under 40 minutes, but if you include time to get to the airport, the long lines at security at MEX (even if you already have a boarding pass), the long walk to the gate, the destination airport being between the cities fo Guanajuato and León, and assuming no delays at all for the flight, the trip home to destination takes maybe 3 hours. So driving is about as good.

But driving will tire you more than a short drive to the airport, waiting in line, waiting at the gate, flying, and a cab ride at the destination. and if you return the same day, driving back takes as long, but flying back takes less time (shorter lines and smaller airport at Bajío). So flying makes more sense.

I can't quite make a sleeping pod work there. But sleeping on the trip, depending on time fo day, would be nice.

Quote: Nareed

I can't quite make a sleeping pod work there. But sleeping on the trip, depending on time fo day, would be nice.

The 25 seat buses in Mexico seemed to operate mostly in the evening or at night

From Oaxaca City to Huatulco according to Google Maps
1) 5 h 33 min 260 km via Oaxaca - Puerto Angel/México 175
2) 6 h 16 min 397 km via Carr. Internacional/Oaxaca - Tehuantepec/Tehuantepec - Oaxaca and Acapulco - Salina Cruz/México 200

The shorter route is second class buses only and suburban minivans, but the longer route is more appropriate had the first and luxury class buses. The would also stop in Salina Cruz, so it took 7.5 hours.

Of course, no matter how nice you make a seat, you still have to drive over the "topes" which wakes you up.

Quote: Pacomartin

Of course, no matter how nice you make a seat, you still have to drive over the "topes" which wakes you up.

I drove to Oaxaca city once(*), but no further. Still, judging by that drive and the landscape, I'm guessing the routes from there to Huatulco have maybe 100 meters of straight road between curves :) That would tend to disturb your sleep as well.


(*) I'm still mad at the person who assigned me that task. He wonders why his reimbursements from petty cash always take too long.

Quote: Nareed

I drove to Oaxaca city once(*), but no further. Still, judging by that drive and the landscape, I'm guessing the routes from there to Huatulco have maybe 100 meters of straight road between curves :) That would tend to disturb your sleep as well.

The minivans that drive the route through the mountains are supposed to be so harrowing that people kiss the ground like the pope when they arrive at their destination. The first class buses drive the Pan American Hihway to Salina Cruz and then reverse direction and drive up the coast.

The same thing happened in USA in the 1960's when they were putting interstates into Appalachia. The argument was that it would improve the economy and bring tourists into the region. But many people who lived there said the roads were just an excuse to haul the natural resources out of the region.

They are both right, of course. The Appalachian culture resonated through US society via the new medium of television, and resorts sprouted up along the interstate.

Getting back to the A380, it's just too big for origin-destination travel in all but a few routes. Of course, it was designed as a hub-to-hub plane, maybe as origin-to-hub as well, and that's exactly how emirates use theirs. The 787 family, on the other hand, excels at origin-destination routes. and it is the rise of the latter that's hurting A380 sales.

I wonder, how good would the A380 be as a milk run plane? Defining milk run as a long route with plenty of stops along the way. This would require tons of fifth freedom rights, which is not the norm in civil aviation. EU airlines can do it inside Europe, but not elsewhere. Imagine something like Sydney-Singapore-Dubai-Istanbul-Frankfurt-Paris-London-NYC-Toronto-Chicago-Vancouver-LAX-Tokio-Sydney. all with the same flight number, with the capability of dropping off and taking on passengers at each stop.

Yeah, I didn't think so, either.