Yet another aviation thread.

Quote: Nareed

Now we know the road to hell is really lined up with cheap fares :)

But look at the potential consequences. Norwegian Air Shuttle is operating Dreamliners out of Newark Airport although there inexpensive B737 MAx-8 are operating in Newburgh NY, Bradley Airport in CT and Providence RI.

If you fly from Newark to Dublin or San Francisco the flights currently take about the same amount of time outbound.

EWR - DUB (Dublin with headwinds)
5:30pm Aer Lingus 6h 25m
7:45pm United 6h 15m

EWR - SFO (San Francisco against headwinds)
6:00pm United 6h 14m
7:15pm United 6h 32m

With PreClearance facilities at Dublin and if NAS begins flying these cramped B737s the cost and effort will be about the same as a long domestic flight. Dublin is a fairly natural place to move facilities that previously were in London, but the business wants to stay in the EU.

Dublin with low cost flights to USA could return to it's pre-recession wealth.

Norwegian Air Shuttled has begun flights from Belfast to Newburgh and seasonal to Providence. Before these flights started this year, Belfast's only nonstop to the USA was on Virgin Atlantic (a seasonal flight to Orlando).

I have to believe that Belfast could only grow jealous of Dublin's success, and possibly be motivated to join the Republic of Ireland and leave the UK. It is possible to have a unified Ireland split by the Government of Ireland Act 1920 .

Quote: Pacomartin

I have to believe that Belfast could only grow jealous of Dublin's success, and possibly be motivated to join the Republic of Ireland and leave the UK. It is possible to have a unified Ireland split by the Government of Ireland Act 1920 .

Imagine what IRA veterans will think when they realize instead of making war, running drugs and planting bombs, they could instead have set up an ultra-low cost carrier in Dublin! :)

I just hope I don't live to see 4-4 seating on narrow bodies, or the perfection of Ryanair's concession stand model of air fares.

Quote: Nareed

Imagine what IRA veterans will think when they realize instead of making war, running drugs and planting bombs, they could instead have set up an ultra-low cost carrier in Dublin! :)

I just hope I don't live to see 4-4 seating on narrow bodies, or the perfection of Ryanair's concession stand model of air fares.

If most people continue to only buy on price I am sure you will Nareed. People always get what they ask the market for and purchasing inferior products because they are cheaper will always get you even cheaper and more inferior products.

Quote: Nareed

Imagine what IRA veterans will think when they realize instead of making war, running drugs and planting bombs, they could instead have set up an ultra-low cost carrier in Dublin! :)

I just hope I don't live to see 4-4 seating on narrow bodies, or the perfection of Ryanair's concession stand model of air fares.

Aer Lingus,is the flag carrier airline of Ireland and was formed in 1936. Ryanair Ltd. is an Irish low-cost airline founded in 1984, but they have never invested in planes that could fly to the USA. Like Southwest they have built their fleet around the B737. The 737-800 introduced in 1998 would have easily been able to fly from NYC to Dublin, but on the return trip they would have to refuel in Canada. Dublin's full pre-clearance facilities didn't open until 2011.

RynAir is purchasing the B737-Max-8 but have elected to buy a version that can seat 11 additional seats (up to 200) instead of the 189 seats that Norwegian Air Shuttle is using. The extra 11 seats cuts into the 1510 km from the range, so that it can no longer fly across the Atlantic.

Range penalty of the additional 11 seats (still air ranges). The Ryanair version of the B737Max could not fly against headwinds from Ireland to USA.


The Good Friday Agreement (GFA) or Belfast Agreement was signed on April 1998. At the time there was still a possibility of the UK entering the EMU and adopting the Euro

Sometime in the mid 1990s Dublin became one of the wealthiest cities in the world. Belfast would have been jealous, but it would have taken some foresight to see the situation two decades later.

So it's not just the low cost carrier, it is the low cost carrier combined with UK leaving the EU.

Quote: Pacomartin

Aer Lingus,is the flag carrier airline of Ireland and was formed in 1936. Ryanair Ltd. is an Irish low-cost airline founded in 1984, but they have never invested in planes that could fly to the USA.

They wren't trying to reunify Ireland, either :)

you know, I wonder why Jet Blue hasn't jumped on the narrow body transatlantic game. With a hub at JFK and cheaper business class seats (Mint), they could easily poach business away from the legacy airlines in flights to London. though I imagine getting slots at Heathrow would require a pound of flesh per employee or something.

Quote: Nareed

They wren't trying to reunify Ireland, either :)

you know, I wonder why Jet Blue hasn't jumped on the narrow body transatlantic game.

JetBlue is fully expected to enter the TATL narrow body game in 2019 as they have ordered 60Airbus A321neo with the option to substitute orders from A321neo to A321LR.

Quote: Pacomartin

JetBlue is fully expected to enter the TATL narrow body game in 2019 as they have ordered 60Airbus A321neo with the option to substitute orders from A321neo to A321LR.

I'm sure some of their current fleet can do the hop. Probably they hadn't planned for it, or not so soon, and are reluctant to jump into a trend without adequate preparation that might disrupt their domestic network. You'd think they're running a profitable business or something :)

I just had a truly horrible thought.

Someone at the office mentioned the old conventional wisdom that margins at airlines are very small. That got me to thinking that once in the 80s I heard that no airline ever had made any money. of course that couldn't be true, as if it were there'd be no airlines around any more (or they'd all be government-owned). But, yeah, the notion that margins are razor-thin is widespread.

Lately, though, airlines are making tons of money.

And then I had my thought: "perhaps they've hit on a more sustainable business model based as much on fees than fares."

Say it ain't so.

Salient recent tidbits:

1) Aeromexico may take some of Delta's CS100s. that's the buzz coming off lots of analysts. AM's regional subsidiary, Aeromexico Connect, can handle the type in their routes, as they already fly two ro three Embraer regional jet variants.

I hope they fly the C Series to Houston and LA :)


2) Japan Airlines (JAL) has invested $10 million in Boom and placed 20 pre-orders.

Pre-orders are to orders what paper airplanes are to airplanes. placing one, or one million, on a paper airplane is meaningless. But putting in hard cash and technical assistance with operational matters and passenger experience, is a commitment. Not a very large one, but tangible all the same.

Boom's beginning to look more real.

Still, it has two big problems. One is operational expenses. it will be faster and more efficient than Concorde, but not by that much. Saying a ticket would cost about the same as a business class ticket on a regular plane sounds great, until you realize how low a percentage of passengers can afford it. as I've said before, it will be an improvement, but it's still like a first generation SST. Boom's a launching point for widespread supersonic travel, not the long-awaited arrival of very fast travel.

The other problem is the prohibition on SST flight over land, in particular in the US. A plane like Boom's would be perfect for routes like JFK to LAX and SFO, which do have substantial demand from people who can afford business class fares (see AA's A321T with a three-class cabin (four-class?).

If/When Boom manages to build a production version, look at the people who will inevitably protest any attempt to repeal or relax the SST prohibitions over land. Many will be backed by airlines reluctant to spend money in the new type.

Quote: Nareed

Salient recent tidbits:

1) Aeromexico may take some of Delta's CS100s. that's the buzz coming off lots of analysts. AM's regional subsidiary, Aeromexico Connect, can handle the type in their routes, as they already fly two ro three Embraer regional jet variants.

I hope they fly the C Series to Houston and LA :)

Aeromexico Connect flies Embraer's with 76 seats and 99 seats. In the USA scoping agreements mean that the regional divisions are restricted to planes with 76 or fewer seats.

But the Embraer jets have better fuel efficiency Bombardier Cseries over short hauls like Houston (1230 km) or LAX (2490 km)

Still Air Maximum Range
4,537km Embraer 190
5,741 km CS100


They will probably use the CS100 for flights to smaller Canadian cities or South American cities

Aeromexico already flies to four major airports in Canada
Calgary Canada (Alberta) YYC CYYC Calgary International Airport
Vancouver Canada (British Columbia) YVR CYVR Vancouver International Airport
Toronto Canada (Ontario) YYZ CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport
Montreal Canada (Quebec) YUL CYUL Montréal–Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport


MEX to (Canada #5 and #6)
3,940 km YEG (Edmonton)
3,590 km YOW (Capital region near Ottawa)