Eygpt Air Flight 804

I'm quite confident that if it was a bomb it was intended to be detonated at high altitude.

I'm puzzled though by the sharp turns... a rudder problem would do that or horizontal stabilizer. I wonder how far the debris field is from the point at which their were severe turns indicated on radar. Even an inflight cockpit intrusion would not cause such a radar track. That plane was in need of a rest and perhaps in need of maintenance. Hope we get the ACARS data from those previous flights to see what error messages were ignored?

Quote: Fleastiff

I'm quite confident that if it was a bomb it was intended to be detonated at high altitude.

I agree that is the most likely explanation. I am just trying to consider all the facts.

The explosion happened 15 minutes after the scheduled landing time of a 3:55 flight.
The plane left the ground late on several days, (see table).
But if it was a timer and the plane had been on schedule, the plane would have landed before exploding.

00:36 18-May-2016 A320
00:09 17-May-2016 B738
00:07 16-May-2016 B738
00:00 15-May-2016 B738
00:13 14-May-2016 B738
00:22 13-May-2016 B738
02:13 13-May-2016 B738
01:11 11-May-2016 B738
00:16 10-May-2016 B738
01:11 09-May-2016 B738


The water in that part of the Med is deep

The lack of a distress call makes mechanical failure an unlikely cause, but the opposite turn after the initial 90 degree bank sure seems like an over-correction.

Were they carrying batteries in the cargo hold?

Quote: Pacomartin

I agree that is the most likely explanation. I am just trying to consider all the facts.

That is admirable.
Your earlier statement about time was ambiguous as to a scheduled take off time or a delayed takeoff.

Even if it was a bomb, triggering might be by descent in altitude and I don't know if that was taking place or not.

I hope they find the FDR and CVR ... this is interesting, particularly without a claim of responsibility by some group.

Did the airliner have "cell phone service" for outgoing or incoming calls? I know there are no cell towers in the middle of the Mediterranean but wonder about satelite links?

Quote: Ayecarumba

The lack of a distress call makes mechanical failure an unlikely cause, but the opposite turn after the initial 90 degree bank sure seems like an over-correction.

Were they carrying batteries in the cargo hold?

Nah just a shipment of hover boards ;-)

Quote: Fleastiff

Even if it was a bomb, triggering might be by descent in altitude and I don't know if that was taking place or not.

I've worked with explosive quite a bit and I would say that arming and triggering mechanisms that use something other than time are highly subject to failure. Air pressure in particular is quite difficult to detect accurately, particularly since the airplane was probably in the earliest stages of reducing altitude.

Don't forget that you bomb has to escape routine detection. If you design something with bladders and elaborate electronics, it is going to be much harder to hide than a simple timer.

Another thing that bothers me is that this was a small plane with only 145 seats. But this flight was only carrying 56 passengers, 3 security people and 7 crew. As acts of terrorism go, this target was small. The plane seemed to have been full of ordinary tourists, families, or people visiting friends and relatives. The economic impact of shutting down the airport would have been far worse, even if the body count was lower.

Only 7 weeks ago, EgyptAir Flight 181, was hijacked whilst on a Flight from Borg El Arab Airport, Alexandria to Cairo International Airport. The aircraft, with 81 passengers on board, landed at Larnaca International Airport, Cyprus, where all hostages were released and the hijacker surrendered to authorities.

So another possibility is this was another attempted hijacking that went wrong.

Why does everyone wants to futilely race the facts?

Here's what we know as of early evening May 20th: http://fearoflanding.com/misc/summary-of-facts-egypt-air-flight-804/

Quote: Pacomartin

The economic impact of shutting down the airport would have been far worse, even if the body count was lower.

Not really. As I recall a separatist group in the Azores exploded a bomb in an airport gift shop and planes were diverted to Tenerife thus creating a later tragedy, but the airport reopened in a matter of hours.

Smoke Alarm information "leaked"...but one wonders how anyone could know that the smoke alarms went off three minutes before the crash. No one lived and no black boxes have been recovered much less played back. Only source might be ACARS data but it is still strangely premature.

Quote: Fleastiff

Only source might be ACARS data but it is still strangely premature.

BEA confirms the cabin smoke alarms and that it is from ACARS data. Acars data is held in suspense for one minute, during which the system checks for related messages or higher priority messages. After the minute's suspense the data is sent to the cockpit screen and then sent to the airliner's maintenance facility via VHF or Satellite depending on service contracts and connection availability. So three minutes prior to aberrant action by pilots means atleast four minutes of actual detection and multiple sensors being activated means an escalating situation.