Aviation Mega Cities

Quote: Fleastiff

Opportunity costs? Usually means 'Listen to the experts and spend now'. I wonder if waiting means airplanes will be quieter and require shorter runways and shorter intervals between touchdowns?

You can imagine the value of a piece of land that is 660 acres right next to water and right next to the downtown. It would be worth trillions of dollars. But there is absolutely no way to build a second runway downtown. The study was not even permitted to look at ways to get more use out of one runway. There working assumption was they needed a two runway airport with a mile between runways.

North Island Naval Air Base would be even more valuable, but the Navy's first aviator, Lieutenant Theodore Ellyson, and many of his colleagues were trained at North Island starting as early as 1911. This was just eight years after Orville and Wilbur Wright flew the first manned aircraft at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. At that time, North Island was an uninhabited sand flat. It had been used in the late 19th century for horseback riding and hunting by guests.



In 1954, the Navy offered NAS Miramar to San Diego for $1 and the city considered using the base to relocate its airport. But it was deemed at the time to be too far away from most residents and the offer was declined. Of course the population grew in San Diego county year after year.

San Diego County Population
289,348 1940
556,808 1950
1,033,011 1960

In 2006, the San Diego County Proposition A proposed obtaining 3000 acres at MCAS Miramar to develop a commercial airport. The proposition was defeated 62 percent opposed to 38 percent in favor.


This plan involved relocating Interstate 15.

Miramar is a city size base right in the middle of the county.

Back to Aviation Mega Cities

According to Airbus analysis, by 2034 there will be 91 mega cities, with 95%+ of traffic going from/to or via a mega city. Mega cities are defined as having international traffic of >10K, 20K, 50K daily passengers who fly more than 2000 nautical miles.


But this analysis gives you an executive soundbite that 95%+ of all passengers in 20 years will be flying via a major hub.The graphic doesn't specify if that is 95% of international traffic, or if it is 95%+ of traffic flying over 2000 nm that is going to an aviation mega city. But soundbites don't really care about details.

But, as I said, 2000 nm ~2300 miles is not so terribly far. Regional jet routes nearly that length exist today, and will certainly be more common in 20 years.
1723 miles Sukhoi Superjet 100-95 Yakutsk to Novosibirsk
1747 miles Canadair CRJ-700 Houston to Calgary
2060 miles Embraer E190 Toronto-Pearson to Seattle

Quote: Pacomartin

According to Airbus analysis, by 2034 there will be 91 mega cities, with 95%+ of traffic going from/to or via a mega city. Mega cities are defined as having international traffic of >10K, 20K, 50K daily passengers who fly more than 2000 nautical miles.

According to logic and common sense, either airlines, industry analysts and/or other plane manufacturers do their own analyses as well. And they probably don't spin or color them to sell a product (well, the manufacturers might).

So I wonder whom Airbus is trying to dazzle with this. I can't imagine the big airlines deciding to buy wide bodies based on the manufacturers analysis alone. So maybe it's investors, financiers or stock markets?

Quote: Nareed

According to logic and common sense, either airlines, industry analysts and/or other plane manufacturers do their own analyses as well. And they probably don't spin or color them to sell a product (well, the manufacturers might).

So I wonder whom Airbus is trying to dazzle with this. I can't imagine the big airlines deciding to buy wide bodies based on the manufacturers analysis alone. So maybe it's investors, financiers or stock markets?

Airbus has had a version of this report in circulation since the A380 started delivering in 2008. Let's look at a typical article.

Quote: NY TIMES: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380; By JAD MOUAWAD AUG. 9, 2014

Airbus may have mistimed the market in a more fundamental way. While European engineers were developing the plane, their counterparts at Boeing were working on alternative designs. Out of this effort came the 787 Dreamliner, with a carbon-composite fuselage, a host of electronic systems and more efficient engines that could fly longer distances while consuming less jet fuel.
...
If most airlines appear skeptical of the A380, Emirates is a true believer. It stunned the industry in December when it ordered 50 more of the planes, beyond the 90 it already had on order, throwing Airbus a much needed lifeline. (Emirates also ordered 150 new Boeing 777Xs, a more efficient variation on the best-selling jet, helping to initiate the program for this new airplane, due in 2020.)

There are more first- and business-class seats on the Emirates A380 than on the 777, and they are usually 75 to 80 percent full, Mr. Clark says. On some routes, like those to Heathrow, where Emirates has five daily flights, that figure can reach 90 percent. Once the whole plane is 85 percent full, its operating costs fall below those of a 777, he says.
...
The problem is that American carriers, including United, aren’t interested. Wall Street analysts aren’t convinced, either. Shares of United would plunge at least 10 percent if it bought A380s, according to one analyst, because of concerns that they would bring too much capacity into the market.
...
Some analysts are also worried about the resale value of an A380, once the planes come off their lease and enter the secondary market. With weak sales and limited interest today, aviation experts say the plane’s resale value could potentially depress new A380 prices even further.
...

But critics like Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at the Teal Group, an aviation consulting firm in Fairfax, Va., say the main problem is more fundamental: Airbus made the wrong prediction about travel preferences. People would rather take direct flights on smaller airplanes, he said, than get on big airplanes — no matter their feats of engineering — that make connections through huge hubs. “It’s a commercial disaster,” Mr. Aboulafia says. “Every conceivably bad idea that anyone’s ever had about the aviation industry is embodied in this airplane.”
...

In his aerie in Dubai, Mr. Clark appears untroubled by these considerations. He has repeatedly said he would buy more planes if Airbus could deliver them fast enough.

“My view is that we’ve all got to tough this out,” he says. “As I say to my friends at Airbus: Don’t bottle this. The day will come again. The global economy will take care of you.”

Perhaps such reports are aimed at the investors who read these quotes by thenameless analyst quoted in the news article. Analyst Richard Aboulafia makes a very straightforward commentary that many people repeat. Passengers prefer to bypass the large hubs. Hence you need a paper to quickly counter these critics.

A true analyst may be able to run the same data with 3000 nm. It is possible that the number of aviation mega cities would drop from 55 in 2014 to 20, and the future flights would drop from 95%+ to 60%+. But you would destroy your soundbite.

But there are at least 20 A380 routes that are less than 3000 miles and at least some domestic routes (within China). So there is no law against using them for short very heavily used routes.
310 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Bahrain (BAH)
530 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Kuwait (KWI)
943 (CZ) Beijing (PEK) – Chengdu (CTU)
1,060 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Jeddah (JED)
1,170 (CZ) Beijing (PEK) – Guangzhou (CAN)
1,200 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Mumbai (BOM)
1,217 (CZ) Beijing (PEK) – Shenzhen (SZX)
1,290 (OZ) Seoul (ICN) – Hong Kong (HKG)
1,600 (SQ) Singapore (SIN) – Hong Kong (HKG)
2,290 (OZ) Seoul (ICN) – Bangkok (BKK)
2,368 (SQ) Singapore (SIN) – Shanghai (PVG)
2,440 (SQ) Singapore (SIN) – Mumbai (BOM)
2,580 (SQ) Singapore (SIN) – Delhi (DEL)
2,613 (TG) Bangkok (BKK) – Osaka (KIX)
2,700 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Rome (FCO)
2,770 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Prague (PRG)
2,770 (SQ) Singapore (SIN) – Beijing (PEK)
2,830 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Munich (MUC)
2,880 (TG) Bangkok (BKK) – Tokyo (NRT)
2,928 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Milan (MXP)
2,960 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Zurich (ZRH)

(EK) EMIRATES
(SQ) SINGAPORE AIRLINES
(TG) THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL
(CZ) CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY
(OZ) ASIANA AIRLINES


As I said earlier, trend analysts are usually trying to sell something. I think they often know the answer they are trying to get beforehand.

Quote: NY TIMES: Oversize Expectations for the Airbus A380; By JAD MOUAWAD AUG. 9, 2014

Mr. Clark, the president of the airline, has turned it into one of the world’s largest carriers by seat capacity. And he is the A380’s most enthusiastic supporter. “People get on the A380 and they absolutely love it,” he says. The upper deck on the Emirates version, he adds, is “just one big party.”

Mr. Clark joined Emirates in the mid-1980s. His basic insight about the A380 is simple: It can be a canvas for a new kind of luxury flight experience. It was Mr. Clark who came up with the idea to install two showers for first-class passengers. Airbus engineers thought the idea was crazy because it would require more fuel to fly the water for the showers. But he dismissed their objections. The showers would immediately distinguish the plane from anything else in the air. He also put a large bar on board, along with a pair of semicircular couches, equipped with seatbelts in case of turbulence. “This thing is so popular and during the course of a 14-hour flight it becomes even more popular,” he says. “They all want to have their picture taken behind the bar with their arms around the girls,” he says, referring to passengers posing with the flight attendants.

I think possibly this may be the A380s biggest problem. It's primary use has been to cater to the elite, by giving them the illusion that they are on a chartered jet with 90 of their closest "compadres". Most of the upper decks are configured with 14 first class pods with two showers, and 76 business class seats and a bar. The division by deck is even more image enhancing than the division by curtains.

The plane was designed to carry a lot of people, and it's true fuel savings was always for configurations above 750 seats. But only a handful of Emirates planes have been configured with only two classes (615 seats). Singapore Airlines has one configuration with as few as 379 seats, but all other airlines stop at 517 seats.

Quote: Pacomartin

Perhaps such reports are aimed at the investors who read these quotes by thenameless analyst quoted in the news article.

That would make sense.

But at the end of the day, how many A380s have been sold?

Quote:

So there is no law against using them for short very heavily used routes.

As I recall, JAL likes to fly wide bodies domestically due to the large demand on some routes. Perhaps the A380 is too big for that.

Quote:

310 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Bahrain (BAH)
530 (EK) Dubai (DXB) – Kuwait (KWI)

I think Emirates only operates wide bodies. Which doesn't mean they have to put the A380 on short routes, but if they choose to fly them they have to do so with a big plane.

I've read extensively on what Etihad and Emirates have done with their A380s. Showers/SPA area, the Residence, the bars, etc. Less commented is Korea's onboard duty free shops or the Singapore 1st class suites (on the center "seats" you can have a double bed).

No one's bragging about more room on economy.

Other A380 operators, like Malaysia, Thai, BA and AF apparently don't do anything too special for their premium passengers. AF is using the A380 in part to replace the 747s it's retired.

Bottom line is Boeing ha sold a great many 787s, so they had the right idea for a new plane this century (the execution was a different matter).

Quote: Pacomartin

I think possibly this may be the A380s biggest problem. It's primary use has been to cater to the elite, by giving them the illusion that they are on a chartered jet with 90 of their closest "compadres". Most of the upper decks are configured with 14 first class pods with two showers, and 76 business class seats and a bar. The division by deck is even more image enhancing than the division by curtains.

I think a few of the A380 operators have placed a few economy seats on the upper deck.

Taking up a trivial matter, what if Airbus had done as Bowing did before and placed the cockpit on the upper deck? In the A380 it's located between decks, leaving more space on the decks themselves for seats and other goodies. What if that space were not available on top?

The thing is there are luxurious accommodations in other wide bodies. Not to the extent of putting in showers, perhaps, or private apartments. But certainly for suites and bars in planes like the 777 and A350, though perhaps not on the 787.

BTW premium seats are growing so luxurious they border on excess, with prices to match. At some point and on some routes, surely chartering a private jet would be cheaper? In particular I'm thinking about couples or small groups/families, not solo travelers, and on shorter routes.

Quote:

The plane was designed to carry a lot of people, and it's true fuel savings was always for configurations above 750 seats. But only a handful of Emirates planes have been configured with only two classes (615 seats). Singapore Airlines has one configuration with as few as 379 seats, but all other airlines stop at 517 seats.

I keep dreading the inevitable day when a an A380 has a terrible accident. It's already nearly happened, when a Qantas flying Singapore to Australia blew an engine. While I give full credit to the captain and first officer on that flight, remember there were three other pilots in the cockpit that day, all qualified on type. There's no question the on-duty crew benefited from the added support. The next time we may not be so lucky.

Quote: Nareed

The thing is there are luxurious accommodations in other wide bodies. Not to the extent of putting in showers, perhaps, or private apartments. But certainly for suites and bars in planes like the 777 and A350, though perhaps not on the 787.

I think what sells is the exclusivity angle. It's kind of like getting a hotel room on the island of St. Bart's. It is still twice the price of what you would pay for the same hotel room in Cancun, but because it is on St. Bart's you just expect to pay at least double. The business seats may not actually be more luxurious, but you board from a separate level in Dubai's airport, and all the plebes are down on the lower level.



Emirates does have a very small number of A380's configured without first class (primarily to fly to Copenhagen). They have 437 economy seats below in 3-4-3, and 120 economy seats on upper deck with 2-4-2 and 58 business seats with 1-2-1 configuration.

It's not very efficient to divide the decks this way. All Etihad, most Emirates , all Korean Air, and some Singapore Airlines configurations are all premier seating on the upper deck. But Etihad, Emirates, and Korean Air have 99 of the 193 A380s delivered so far.

But none of the other airlines (British Air, Lufthansa, Air France, Qantas, Malaysia Airlines, Qatar Airways, Thai Airways International) do that.

Qatar Airways, in general, distinguishes itself from Emirates and Etihad, by not normally having first class, but by having a better business class than the others.

All in all, I think that since deliveries began in 2007-2008 that killed the A380. If they had begun four or five years later when fuel prices were lower and demand was much higher, it probably would have sold better.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think what sells is the exclusivity angle.

Partly it does, no doubt. As you point out, in Dubai the elite can board without even laying eyes on the riff-raff down in steerage. But people buy premium seats on all other types of planes. I doubt any airline flies an A380 on any route only because the passengers in the front demand it.

Quote:

But none of the other airlines (British Air, Lufthansa, Air France, Qantas, Malaysia Airlines, Qatar Airways, Thai Airways International) do that.

I thought they don't, but wasn't sure. The aviation enthusiasts who review flights care more about the seat than the plane.

Quote:

All in all, I think that since deliveries began in 2007-2008 that killed the A380. If they had begun four or five years later when fuel prices were lower and demand was much higher, it probably would have sold better.

That'll teach them not to accurately predict the future ;)

But being hit by fuel prices is virtually a tradition in the airline industry. Didn't Southwest once lose big money by hedging fuel prices and then having these drop?

Quote: Nareed

I doubt any airline flies an A380 on any route only because the passengers in the front demand it.

I think that is exactly why Emirates buys the A380. I've read they have a much easier time selling the required number of premium seats on the A380 than they do on the B777-300ER (requirement is usually 80% to break even.

They have 42 business class and sometimes 8 first class on the Boeing 777-300ER.
They have 76 business class and 14 first class on the Airbus A380 in most cases

Quote: Nareed

But being hit by fuel prices is virtually a tradition in the airline industry. Didn't Southwest once lose big money by hedging fuel prices and then having these drop?

You can usually configure planes to burn the same amount of fuel per seat.

For instance an Aeromexico Dreamliner has 243 seats. An A380 with 616 seats will burn the same amount of fuel per mile as the Aeromexico Dreamliner. So the two class Emirates A380 flights to Copenhagen are burning the same amount of fuel per per seat per mile.

The savings would go to A380 because you would only have one pilot/copilot and only one plane to maintain. I think it is one flight attendent for 50 passengers, so that is probably a wash. You would save money on gate landing fees. I think your finance payment on the plane would favor the A380 because they have to sell them so cheap.

But the pressure is much higher to sell that many tickets. The flexibility to change planes is less. That is why United's stock price would theoretically drop 10% if they purchased A380s.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think that is exactly why Emirates buys the A380. I've read they have a much easier time selling the required number of premium seats on the A380 than they do on the B777-300ER (requirement is usually 80% to break even.

Sure. I mean, Dubai airport is configured for the A380. But if they struggle to fill a 777 on route X, they won't change it to an A380 if they'd sell the same number of tickets on it.

Quote:

But the pressure is much higher to sell that many tickets. The flexibility to change planes is less. That is why United's stock price would theoretically drop 10% if they purchased A380s.

Do you think this will hold once used A380s hit the market? The capital costs will be lower, though who know what fuel prices will be like then.

The only way I can see Delta, United or AA buying A380s, though, is if they had a very high demand on a route where the end point strictly restricts their slots. They don't even seem to want to hang on to the few 747s remaining in their fleets.