Where will Bitcoin be on 9/4/2018?

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9 members have voted

September 6th, 2017 at 8:02:39 AM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 200
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Quote: Pacomartin
CNBC journalist Seema Moody recently published a report detailing the trials and tribulations of her attempt to live for a week solely using bitcoin as currency.


So did Morgan Spurlock of Supersize Me fame. I don't recall him getting overcharged but he did find it hard, even in NYC, to find anyone who accepted Bitcoin.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 6th, 2017 at 8:24:53 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 835
Posts: 9980
Quote: Wizard
So did Morgan Spurlock of Supersize Me fame. I don't recall him getting overcharged but he did find it hard, even in NYC, to find anyone who accepted Bitcoin.


It's not so much that she was overcharged, but she had to do extraordinary things to use bitcoin like buy gift cards in order to pay for stuff. She ended up walking almost everywhere because it was difficult to pay for transportation (public or private).



In 1981, the Icelandic króna was revalued, due to high inflation, with 100 old krónur (ISJ) being worth 1 new króna (ISK) and
a new 500 krónur banknote was first put into circulation in 1981.
The 1000 krónur was put into circulation in 1984 and
the 5000 krónur in 1986.

Iceland managed to get cash to 1% of GDP in the early 1980's, but for different reasons than Sweden. Rampant inflation was much closer to a third world nation where you print new denomination, and banknotes quickly lose their value. Eventually people just switch to credit cards because it is easier to keep up. Cash stayed at about 1% for 20 years until all the banks crashed at once. The Icelandic Crown lost half it's value to the Euro Then the people had to go back to cash. But it wasn't until 2013 that a 10,000 ISK was issued.

Today the exchange rate has mostly recovered, but they still use cash. Today 10,000 ISK = $94.and 2,880,750 of those notes are in circulation for a population of 334,252 or 8.6 of that denomination banknote per capita. Iceland now has about $1781 per capita in cash circulating while Sweden has roughly $600.

The proposed Swedish crypto currency backed by the central bank would basically guard against that kind of outcome. It would still give Swedes electronic money even if there is a big crash of commercial banks. But it remains to be seen what type of security measures they put on the money. It is unlikely to be completely anonymous like banknotes. The e-krona might not happen at all, and depending on the rules, it might not be very popular.

The big thing about Sweden is they were able to get nearly all the banks in the country to agree on one app to take care of person to person transactions. It's much harder to automate those than it is person to business or person to government entities.
September 6th, 2017 at 3:42:22 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 835
Posts: 9980
Quote: Wizard
As I write this, on 9/4/2017, Bitcoin is at $4,169.74. Just five months ago, on 4/4/2017, it was a $1074. That is a grown rate of 31.2% per month, which equates to almost 2500% per year.



BTC briefly soared to over $4900 mid day on 9/2/2017. Market Cap is $76.2 billion as of 7 Sep 2017. So it is edging above value of cash in Korea and Mexico


Banknotes and coin in circulation (12/31/2015)
Country Billions of Dollars
1) United States $1,424.92
2) Euro area $1,210.42
3) Japan $856.55
4) India $250.80
5) Russia $117.05
6) United Kingdom $103.09
Switzerland $76.31
Korea $73.92
Mexico $72.02

China not on list, but it might be higher than Japan by now.
September 13th, 2017 at 8:00:56 AM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 200
Posts: 4679
Quote: Pacomartin
BTC briefly soared to over $4900 mid day on 9/2/2017.


Bitcoin currently at $3,780. That's a 23% fall in under three weeks. Is this the pop or just another correction? It seems the cycle lately has been one step down, three steps up, level, repeat.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 13th, 2017 at 8:18:20 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 108
Posts: 8265
Quote: Wizard
Bitcoin currently at $3,780. That's a 23% fall in under three weeks. Is this the pop or just another correction? It seems the cycle lately has been one step down, three steps up, level, repeat.


Jamie Dimon just made a negative statement on it. That popped the market for now, though I do not expect his opinion to matter much long term. He is likely upset he is not making anything on it. I am mixed opinion on him. On one hand, he is the banking genius of our time. OTOH, when I worked there they were always paying out a billion for a fine here or there. We joked that we would get fired for minor errors yet nobody was mentioned for being fired for such big things.

Glad it is falling, gets me 20% more for my next regular buy. Not that it is much, but still.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
September 13th, 2017 at 8:33:04 AM permalink
Wizard
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Member since: Oct 23, 2012
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Quote: AZDuffman
Jamie Dimon just made a negative statement on it.


Pops can be triggered by just an offhand remark. The "irrational exuberance" remark by Alan Greenspan, which was just a passing comment in a routine long-winded talk, was the trigger that caused the NASDAQ to fall by 78%.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 13th, 2017 at 12:13:17 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 835
Posts: 9980
Quote: AZDuffman
Jamie Dimon just made a negative statement on it.


I would say "negative statement" is an understatement.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says bitcoin is a 'fraud' that will eventually blow up. It's worse than tulip bulbs. It won't end well. Someone is going to get killed.


President Andrew Jackson quotes while campaigning for POTUS
(1) The bank, Mr. Van Buren, is trying to kill me, but I will kill it.(8 July 1832)

Veto Message Regarding the Bank of the United States (10 July 1832)
(2) It is maintained by some that the bank is a means of executing the constitutional power “to coin money and regulate the value thereof.” Congress have established a mint to coin money and passed laws to regulate the value thereof. The money so coined, with its value so regulated, and such foreign coins as Congress may adopt are the only currency known to the Constitution. But if they have other power to regulate the currency, it was conferred to be exercised by themselves, and not to be transferred to a corporation. If the bank be established for that purpose, with a charter unalterable without its consent, Congress have parted with their power for a term of years, during which the Constitution is a dead letter. It is neither necessary nor proper to transfer its legislative power to such a bank, and therefore unconstitutional.

The Second Bank of the United States, located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, was the second federally authorized Hamiltonian national bank in the United States during its 20-year charter from February 1816 to January 1836.

1837–1862: Free Banking Era
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_banking
September 13th, 2017 at 5:21:59 PM permalink
Aussie
Member since: May 10, 2016
Threads: 2
Posts: 340
Quote: AZDuffman
Glad it is falling, gets me 20% more for my next regular buy. Not that it is much, but still.



How much do you have? How often do you buy?
As a total novice I should probably ask the incredibly basic question: HOW do you buy/sell it? lol

If it falls further I am very interested in getting some. Probably just a couple of thousand $ worth. Nothing that will break the bank of it crashes completely but enough that could potentially see a fairly sizeable gain should it see further wild spikes.
September 13th, 2017 at 11:13:21 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 835
Posts: 9980
Quote: AZDuffman
Glad it is falling, gets me 20% more for my next regular buy. Not that it is much, but still.


You sound like a goldbug. Whenever the price falls they simply reply with glee that now they can afford to buy more.

If Sweden and other smaller Northern European countries go ahead with digital currencies, it may assure billions of doubters that Bitcoin is just another currency, but one free of government meddling. Maybe the market cap will reach a trillion dollars in your lifetime.

Or it could be worthless.

Paper is poverty,... it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself. Thomas Jefferson in a letter to Colonel Edward Carrington (27 May 1788)

As a rule, there is nothing that offends us more than a new kind of money. Robert Lynd, The Pleasures of Ignorance (1921), p. 215.

The lifeblood of our economy, indeed the whole world's economy, is based on money. Without a currency that can be trusted, the entire structure of economics, the division of labor itself, falls apart. Our wealth, our well being and our very lives are dependent on the continuation of this highly complex structure called the economy and it in turn is dependent on sound money. We have placed our trust for the management of this money on a gang of thieves called the Federal Reserve. They have now clearly demonstrated their inability to restrain themselves from the excesses that can be perpetrated within a paper money system. If we want to survive as a nation, we need to eliminate both the Federal Reserve and paper money. Lou Poumakis, "Economic Disaster, its Cause and Cure" (8 March 2009).
September 14th, 2017 at 2:47:01 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 108
Posts: 8265
Quote: Aussie
How much do you have? How often do you buy?
As a total novice I should probably ask the incredibly basic question: HOW do you buy/sell it? lol

If it falls further I am very interested in getting some. Probably just a couple of thousand $ worth. Nothing that will break the bank of it crashes completely but enough that could potentially see a fairly sizeable gain should it see further wild spikes.


Not much, just started putting $40 a month in each of Bitcoin and Etherium. I use the coinbase exchange. If you use me as a referral we can each get $10 in Bitcoin. You can hold it on the exchange just like stock or put it into a wallet. I have yet to have enough to make a wallet worth it, but soon will try. Maybe report back here when I do.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
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