Where will Bitcoin be on 9/4/2018?

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9 members have voted

September 18th, 2017 at 4:27:48 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Quote: AZDuffman
Now back to just under $4100, and showing some momentum. Jamie's statements might have worn off.


After carefully considering the announcement published by Chinese regulators on 09/04, BTCChina Exchange will stop all trading on 09/30.

I think that had far more effect than Jamie Dimon's statements. People who own bitcoin expect to hear that kind of statement, but losing a major exchange is a big deal.
September 18th, 2017 at 6:31:56 PM permalink
zippyboy
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 2
Posts: 564
There's a new documentary regarding BTC on Netflix if anyone's interested. "Banking on Bitcoin" in the new release section.

I read this book last year and commented my thoughts somewhere on this forum. Worth a read.
September 18th, 2017 at 8:29:31 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Quote: zippyboy
There's a new documentary regarding BTC on Netflix if anyone's interested. "Banking on Bitcoin" in the new release section.


Thanks. I watched it.

That ain't workin' that's the way you do it .. Money for nothin' and chicks for free…(1985)

Quote: zippyboy
I read this book last year and commented my thoughts somewhere on this forum. Worth a read.

Quote: zippyboy
I just finished a book on the birth and growth of Bitcoin, Digital Gold. Fascinating read. Mt Gox was in fact based in Tokyo, but did you know what Mt Gox stands for? That website had been running for years before Bitcoin emerged, as a way for gamers to trade their Magic the Gathering cards, but business was down and the guy wanted to try something new.
Mt Gox = Magic The Gathering Online eXchange.


You read it two years ago.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:13:50 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Shows The Truth: It Is Probably Worth Zero - WSJ Sep 18, 2017

Wall Street Journal did an article and pointed out something that I didn't realize. Bitcoin requires over 180 kWh of electricity to do a single transaction. That's at least $20-$25 where electricity is cheap. Now if your transaction is 1 BTC or greater that may be reasonable. But BTC can never replace other currencies with that kind of overhead.

There are a lot of articles about the energy required to do bitcoin, but the WSJ quoted the highest number I have ever seen. An average home in America only uses 30 kWh of electricity per day.

This article cites the cost of a transaction at 163 kWh per BTC transaction (slightly lower than the WSJ calculation but still very high)
https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/bitcoin-ethereum-mining-use-significant-electrical-power/

In the long term speculation, WSJ thinks that BTC is headed towards zero as the electricity overhead continues to grow.
October 12th, 2017 at 3:30:27 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 110
Posts: 8633
Quote: Pacomartin
After carefully considering the announcement published by Chinese regulators on 09/04, BTCChina Exchange will stop all trading on 09/30.

I think that had far more effect than Jamie Dimon's statements. People who own bitcoin expect to hear that kind of statement, but losing a major exchange is a big deal.


Three weeks later and it seems last month was just a speed bump, Bitcoin now at $5,100.

Did we ever get a list of everyone's predictions?
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
October 12th, 2017 at 3:57:06 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10146
Quote: AZDuffman
Three weeks later and it seems last month was just a speed bump, Bitcoin now at $5,100.



At $5143.22 that calculates to a market cap of $85.47 billion. That certainly puts BTC well above market value of the banknotes and coins of Switz, S. Korea, and Mexico.

With the value of GBP dropping rapidly, Bitcoin may already be close to the UK. The Ruble is very volatile indeed.

The sheer size of the Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Euro and USD economy means it is very unlikely that BTC will grow larger in value than the banknotes of those currencies, but no one thought it would ever grow this big.

But with India playing games with their cash, it might be possible.

Banknotes and coin in circulation (12/31/2015)
/Capita Country Billions of Dollars
$4,433 United States $1,424.92
$3,571 Euro area $1,210.42
$6,739 Japan $856.55
$195 India $250.80
$800 Russia $117.05
$1,583 United Kingdom $103.09
================================== Bitcoin
$9,213 Switzerland $76.31
$1,460 Korea $73.92
$599 Mexico $72.02


You could argue that the comparison of market cap of bitcoins to the market cap of banknotes is not really a fair comparison. Bitcoin, because of it's huge energy requirements is not a substitute for everyday money.
October 12th, 2017 at 5:44:35 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 204
Posts: 4824
Up 60% in the last 32 days. This just does not seem like a legitimate thing. The big pop is coming.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
October 12th, 2017 at 10:20:19 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 7
Posts: 507
Can someone explain this 'energy use' thing to me?

Let's say I own 1 bitcoin through a company that I have a 'wallet' with. I am going to buy a widget from someone who will accept 1 bitcoin for the widget. Are you saying that for me to give the other person 1 bitcoin it will take $25 worth of electricity? Who pays that electric bill? If it costs 10 bitcoin does it cost $250 worth of electricity?
October 12th, 2017 at 10:59:32 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 110
Posts: 8633
Quote: SOOPOO
Can someone explain this 'energy use' thing to me?

Let's say I own 1 bitcoin through a company that I have a 'wallet' with. I am going to buy a widget from someone who will accept 1 bitcoin for the widget. Are you saying that for me to give the other person 1 bitcoin it will take $25 worth of electricity? Who pays that electric bill? If it costs 10 bitcoin does it cost $250 worth of electricity?


The "miners" pay the electricity. When you buy the widget, an entry is made in the ledger. Said entry has to have a random number to verify it. The miners are solving the math problems to make that random number. The electricity to run the computers doing the hashing is who pays, and they get some Bitcoin as a fee as after all, we are not communists.

That is my understanding. I know no number can be truly random and my math understanding of the hashing is average, but this is the gist of it.

AFIK, transactions get batch-processed somehow. Not sure how many Bitcoin per entry and such.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
October 12th, 2017 at 11:03:34 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 110
Posts: 8633
Quote: Wizard
Up 60% in the last 32 days. This just does not seem like a legitimate thing. The big pop is coming.


Two things to remember when comparing Bitcoin to any other bubble.

First, it is not debt-based. In the housing bubble, it was propped up with debt. When the ability to borrow ended, so did the good times.

Second, it is a finite commodity, infinitely divisible. Tulip bulbs could be produced, silver could be produced and taken from storage. Bitcoin, OTOH, has a limit. As well, you cannot divide bulbs or houses. Silver has a practical limit. Bitcoin can be divided forever, meaning any $1 can come into the market.

Not saying it is crash-proof. Saying it will act different.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it