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2018 Oscars

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January 24th, 2018 at 7:28:36 AM permalink
Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 239 Posts: 6095	I have seen zero of the pictures nominated for Best Picture. Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber

January 24th, 2018 at 8:59:53 AM permalink

Pacomartin

Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569

Quote: Wizard
I have seen zero of the pictures nominated for Best Picture.

Not surprising with only Dunkirk making top 20 worldwide, and Get Out making top 40.


2017 Picture		Studio	Domestic Box Office
Dunkirk			Warner Bros.	$188,045,546
Get Out			Universal	$175,686,870
The Post		Fox		$45,763,616
Darkest Hour		Focus Features	$41,085,957
Lady Bird		A24		$39,167,960
Three Billboards 	Fox Searchlight	$32,254,616
The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$30,441,204
Call Me by Your Name	Sony Classics	$9,135,264
Phantom Thread		Focus Features	$6,385,599
Average Gross: 				$63,107,404


2016 Picture	Studio	Domestic Box Office
Hidden Figures	Fox	$169,607,287
La La Land	Lionsgate/Summit	$151,101,803
Arrival	Paramount	$100,546,139
Hacksaw Ridge	Lionsgate	$67,209,615
Fences	Paramount	$57,682,904
Lion	Weinstein Company	$51,738,905
Manchester by the Sea	Roadside Attractions	$47,695,371
Moonlight (2016)	A24	$27,854,932
Hell or High Water	Lionsgate	$27,007,844
Average Gross: $77,827,200

January 24th, 2018 at 9:09:49 AM permalink
terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11799	Quote: Pacomartin Not surprising with only Dunkirk making top 20 worldwide, and Get Out making top 40. The only 2 I saw I was disappointed in Dunkirk. Never got the breath of the this massive operation. Just a few survival stories. I liked Get Out but I hardly think its best picture material. Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"

January 24th, 2018 at 10:01:47 AM permalink

Pacomartin

Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569

Quote: terapined
The only 2 I saw
I was disappointed in Dunkirk. Never got the breath of the this massive operation. Just a few survival stories.
I liked Get Out but I hardly think its best picture material.

Clearly it is a horse-race between "The Shape of Water" and "Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri". But they like to get some nominations for a few movies that people have seen since it makes the award show more interesting.

The last time a #1 film was nominated was 2014's "The Sniper" and the last #1 winner was 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

January 24th, 2018 at 11:55:06 AM permalink
Nareed Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 346 Posts: 12545	Quote: Pacomartin Clearly it is a horse-race between "The Shape of Water" and "Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri". Those aren't the movies I most want not to see, but they're in the top ten. Quote: and the last #1 winner was 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" That was the movie I most wanted not to see that year. Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER

January 24th, 2018 at 12:05:52 PM permalink

Mosca

Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 22
Posts: 730

Quote: ams288
Oscar nominations get announced tomorrow morning.

This is shaping up to be one of those years where you know all the winners way in advance.

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand

Best Picture will likely be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. However, there does seem to be some liberal backlash forming against that movie.

The Shape of Water will probably get a ton of technical nominations.

I'm surprised at the backlash to Three Billboards. Yes, a lot of it was broadly drawn, but it was nevertheless worth the price of admission. It's hard to pack some of those themes into two hours.

We saw I, Tonya yesterday. Allison Janney was superb. I don't have much to compare her to, I didn't see any of the other nominees. But holy shit was she good.

January 24th, 2018 at 7:38:22 PM permalink

Wizard

Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095

Quote: ams28

This is shaping up to be one of those years where you know all the winners way in advance.

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand

Best Picture will likely be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. However, there does seem to be some liberal backlash forming against that movie.

I agree, except with the last part. According to the odds at TopBet, here are the favorites:

Best picture: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (-160)
Best actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) (-10000)
Best actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) (-2000)
Best director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) (-300)
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) (-425)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya) (-285)

So, four of the six categories do not have runaway favorites. This will make a terrible betting year. I don't advise betting on a favorite unless the odds are -500 or better. However, who wants to lay 100 to 1 on anything?

Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber

January 25th, 2018 at 12:39:12 AM permalink

Pacomartin

Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569

Quote: Mosca
I'm surprised at the backlash to Three Billboards. Yes, a lot of it was broadly drawn, but it was nevertheless worth the price of admission. It's hard to pack some of those themes into two hours.

The Best Picture winner is so political that it may be affected by some liberal backlash. However, I don't think it will undermine Frances McDormand's chances of winning the Best Actress prize.

There have been only 13 actresses to complete the Triple Crown of Acting


		Year 	Yrs	Oscar	Emmy	Tony	Total wins
Helen Hayes	1953	20	1933*	1953	1947	5	
Ingrid Bergman	1960	15	1945*	1960	1947	6	
Shirley Booth	1962	13	1953	1962	1949*	6	
Rita Moreno	1977	15	1962*	1977	1975	4	
M. Stapleton	1982	31	1982	1968	1951*	4	
Anne Bancroft	1999	41	1963*	1999	1958	4
V. Redgrave	2003	25	1978*	1981	2003	4
Maggie Smith	2003	33	1970*	2003	1990	7
Ellen Burstyn	2009	34	1975*	2009	1975	4
Helen Mirren	2015	19	2007	1996*	2015	6
F. McDormand	2015	18	1997*	2015	2011	3
Jessica Lange	2016	33	1983*	2009	2016	6	
Viola Davis	2017	16	2017	2015	2001*	4

January 25th, 2018 at 1:21:03 AM permalink

Fleastiff

Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831

Quote: Wizard
I have seen zero of the pictures nominated for Best Picture.

Seen them? Usually I've never even heard of them.

"Get Out" not being Best Picture material? So what? Its how many blacks will be voting and how many of the whites who vote will join the groundswell of blackening Hollywood?

Breadth of Dunkirk rescue? How do you convey the breadth of a cryptographer making the discovery of the need for evacuation? How do you convey the breadth of crossing the short, choppy seas of the English channel in a flat bottomed boat? What is the breadth of a breakdown in military discipline?
The breadth of practicality can be conveyed by "England needs soldiers, not hospital patients" but I doubt that was conveyed at all,.

March 3rd, 2018 at 10:55:48 PM permalink
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569	I saw "The Shape of Water" since it is the frontrunner for Best Picture. Frankly, I liked Pan's Labrinth better. Sally Hawkins is magnificent, as always, in a role as a mute.

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