The Coronavirus thread

Quote: Tanko

"An Actuarial Look at Covid-19 Mortality"

"If we assume that 60% of all Americans eventually get infected that will give rise to a total death toll that can be directly attributed to COVID-19 of 475,000 (.0024 x .6 x 330,000,000)."

"And it might not even be as bad as that. Here is why.".....

Not sure where you get your .0024 number from. That is about 1/4 of 1% which seems a much lower death rate than we are getting.

Quote: kenarman

Not sure where you get your .0024 number from. That is about 1/4 of 1% which seems a much lower death rate than we are getting.

Probably pretty close to reality when you back out the deaths that china virus is only "part of" or jut put in to inflate numbers.

Quote: AZDuffman

Probably pretty close to reality when you back out the deaths that china virus is only "part of" or jut put in to inflate numbers.

Why are you still posting in this thread? I thought you said we’d all have forgotten about the virus by May...

Quote: kenarman

Not sure where you get your .0024 number from. That is about 1/4 of 1% which seems a much lower death rate than we are getting.

The author mentions that is the CDC estimate.

"Overall probability of dying if infected = .0024 (approximately 1/400)"


The author provided a link and explained how the CDC determined the estimate.

"In fact, the CDC recently updated their analysis of the probability of dying after infection and their best estimate is now slightly under 0.3%. The CDC has even broken this probability out by age category and tried to take into account an additional confounding problem with some of the original IFR studies – that a large number of infected individuals show no symptoms at all."

Quote: Tanko

The author mentions that is the CDC estimate.

"Overall probability of dying if infected = .0024 (approximately 1/400)"


The author provided a link and explained how the CDC determined the estimate.

"In fact, the CDC recently updated their analysis of the probability of dying after infection and their best estimate is now slightly under 0.3%. The CDC has even broken this probability out by age category and tried to take into account an additional confounding problem with some of the original IFR studies – that a large number of infected individuals show no symptoms at all."

Apparently .0024 was the IFR estimate from CDC at the time that paper was written. The CDC now says it's .0065.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box
The reference they site for the estimate is a paper that puts it at .0068
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4
Since it changes so much and the CDC calls it a "Current Best Estimate", it's hard for me to believe anyone has any idea what it is.

The overall IFR is not useful.
We know age and co-morbidity factors matter.
IFR is ridiculously low when you look at infections of those under 30.
IFR if you are under 65 will be less than the flu.
You get above 65 and collectively, IFR is scary at 5-6%.
Old people & the immuno-compromised should lock down from work and others.
The rest of us get on with our lives.
Wear masks, wash your hands & social distance. while you're doing life.
Which is what is happening despite all the hand wringing & outrage.
Dems are banking on outrage over a pandemic that kills the elderly & offer a frail, basement dwelling Biden puppet as the alternative.
I wish them luck selling that package to the American public in November.

Quote: JCW09

I wish them luck selling that package to the American public in November.

LOL
Those left alive in the country already bought the package.
The axios interview did not help.
What are you doing here.

Quote: JCW09

As if someone that has wasted.................................................... on this website can trigger anyone.
It's embarrassing.

Aren't you embarrassed to be posting here?
Are there 2 JC's like there are 2 EB's lol

South Korea 300 total deaths. USA 1k a day. Any comment? Its sad how many have died in this country due to Trump not taking the virus seriously.

Quote: JCW09

The overall IFR is not useful.
We know age and co-morbidity factors matter.
IFR is ridiculously low when you look at infections of those under 30.
IFR if you are under 65 will be less than the flu.
You get above 65 and collectively, IFR is scary at 5-6%.
Old people & the immuno-compromised should lock down from work and others.
The rest of us get on with our lives.

+1,000

Unfortunately, libbies don't care about people losing their jobs and not being able to feed their families (which is most certainly a health issue). 🙄

Quote: Shrek

+1,000

Unfortunately, libbies don't care about people losing their jobs and not being able to feed their families (which is most certainly a health issue). 🙄

If this were the 70s we would not have near this level of hysteria. Even with no tech to work at home then we would be being told to get out and get on with your life. Precautions at nursing homes and such yes. But no able bodied people allowed to sit at home afraid to leave the house.

America has gone soft.

Very good article about Chloroquinine and how the US has suffered by using it at first improperly (late rather than early in the course of the disease) and how those nations using it have a significantly lower death rate. The article also identifies all the false studies that were later retracted but are still being promoted by the MSM in order to bash Trump. It is the a shame that thousands have died because of lack of use of this drug because the Democrats would sooner get rid of Trump than save lives.

Article