New high capacity airplanes

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January 24th, 2017 at 8:51:19 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 48
Posts: 4571
Quote: Pacomartin
But that idea completely collapsed and LA was forced to return Ontario airport to the city of Ontario under charges that they were running it into the ground.
I'm sure they were running it into the ground. You can not administer an airport in Ontario from City Hall in Los Angeles. Firms in the immediate area of Ontario have to be fully behind their airport. Firms have to know their spare parts are flown in by FedEx to that airport. Firms have know that technicians and executives can get to places faster from Ontario than any where else. You want a "feeder" airport to exist.... you have to have the locals truly believe in its value to them. If locals can view it as more than a diversion from over crowded LAX only then will it succeed.
August 5th, 2017 at 11:22:03 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 704
Posts: 8124
United and Delta have both announced the acceleration of the retirement of the B747s to this year (instead of next year).

Last flight on United will be on October 29th, 2017. Delta has not set a date for their last 7 aircraft.
August 8th, 2017 at 9:41:58 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 318
Posts: 10840
I wonder when Boeing will return to the Very Large Airplane (VLA).

Not any time soon, seeing as how the 747-8 did, even considering freight versions. And let's not even mention how the A380 is struggling (IMO, had Emirates not bought so many, it would have been the inordinately expensive flop that broke airbus).

For now the 777 in its various versions, including the upcoming 777X, are big enough to take on the A350 in its variants. But future demand and congestion might finally get the airlines to rethink this.

I wonder, too, how composites may further change commercial airplane design. For instance, a narrow body generates less air resistance and drag than a wide body (smaller exposed surface and all). But if extensive use of composites reduces the mass of a plane, then extra-wide bodies might be economically feasible. Say 1.5 times wider than the 777/A350. A twin-fuselage design would seem to be entirely out fo the question, because airports couldn't easily (ie cheaply) accommodate such things.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
August 8th, 2017 at 2:26:59 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 704
Posts: 8124
Quote: Nareed
(IMO, had Emirates not bought so many, it would have been the inordinately expensive flop that broke airbus).


In hindsight the decision to proceed with the A380 in 2001 was a poor one, but it was kind of difficult to see back then.

At the end of 2004 the passenger version had 122 orders at this time (41 to Emirates). Airbus should have realized that they were falling way short of the necessary orders and should have put the entire program on delay. Even British Airways did not put in their order until 19 days before Singapore Airlines received the first delivery on 15 October 2007.

Orders by year
2001 78
2002 zero
2003 34 (total 112)
2004 10 (total 122)

122 Orders for passenger A380 aircraft at end of 2004
Emirates 41
Lufthansa 15 (delivered 14)
Qantas 12
Air France 10
Singapore Airlines 10
Malaysia Airlines 6
Thai Airways International 6
Korean Air 5
Etihad Airways 4
Qatar Airways 2
Virgin Atlantic 6 (technically on delay but expected to be cancelled)
ILFC 5 (cancelled)
August 8th, 2017 at 2:44:45 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 318
Posts: 10840
Quote: Pacomartin
In hindsight the decision to proceed with the A380 in 2001 was a poor one, but it was kind of difficult to see back then.


Yes. but:

Quote:
At the end of 2004 the passenger version had 122 orders at this time (41 to Emirates).


At the time, this could be read two ways:

1) It's not good to have 1/4 of all orders from one eccentric customer. If they fail, we fail with them. And no one else will order that many A380s

2) Hmm. If Emirates alone is ordering that many A380s, imagine how many more everyone else will want once they see what Emirates does with them!

One also has to wonder why a freight version wasn't developed alongside the passenger version, like Boeing did with the 747-8. granted the need for a nose door would have required a different design of the nose, more like that of the 747, and perhaps a shorter upper deck, but still. Such a big airplane with four powerful engines screams "cargo!"


Quote:
Airbus should have realized that they were falling way short of the necessary orders and should have put the entire program on delay.


I'd call that hindsight, except it's more or less what happened to Concorde (which had way over 22 orders BTW).

In the end it was a gamble, whether they were ahead of their time (as some pundits maintain) or not. I seem to recall Boeing and McDonnell Douglass were looking into a bigger jumbo jet around the late 90s as well (I know McD considered it as the MD-12 before settling in an updated DC-10 in the form of the MD-11). As I recall, Boeing decided airlines wanted more frequencies, not bigger airplanes.

That, too, was a kind of gamble. And perhaps Boeing over-reached with the 787. Bu the A380 jusssst missed being a massive flop.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
August 8th, 2017 at 4:07:02 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 704
Posts: 8124
Quote: Nareed
I'd call that hindsight, except it's more or less what happened to Concorde (which had way over 22 orders BTW).



Well everything is hindsight, but there are always people who can forsee what is coming a decade earlier.

Take the case of the new B737. Many people said they had to go with a clean slate design, or the limitations would catch up with them. Now the A321neo has a huge number of orders, and there are practically none in the -9 and -10 variants of the B737max.

A319neo 50 (zero deliveries)
A320neo 3693 (131 deliveries)
A321neo 1424 (5 deliveries)

B737max-7 50 (zero deliveries)
B737max-8 2010 (6 deliveries)
B737max-9 67 (zero deliveries)
B737max-10 252 (zero deliveries)
B737max-? 1424 (zero deliveries)


Now that the first 5 delivieries of the A321neo have been made to leasing companies, the jet may gather some useful real world data. The performance is expected to wildly outdo the B737 variants, and it may crush Boeing's narrow body industry in five years.
1 AerCap
2 Air Lease Corporation
2 GE Capital Aviation Services
August 8th, 2017 at 4:26:07 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 318
Posts: 10840
Quote: Pacomartin
Well everything is hindsight, but there are always people who can forsee what is coming a decade earlier.

Take the case of the new B737. Many people said they had to go with a clean slate design, or the limitations would catch up with them. Now the A321neo has a huge number of orders, and there are practically none in the -9 and -10 variants of the B737max.


They also waited too long to do the MAX, allowing Airbus to market, sell and deliver the neo earlier.

Buzz for the 797 Middle of the Market plane has died down, but I hope they follow through with it (I don't think it will be a twin aisle, though). But half the time I keep expecting they'll just stretch, reconfigure and give new interiors to the 737 yet again. The 737 ULTIMATE maybe.

Working on a new large plane is hazardous, as we've seen. Yet Boeing is resting a bit too comfortably on their laurels, and not developing further the composite construction and other new tech of the 787. Not much (I hear the 777X variants will have composite wings).

So i hope, for their sake, Boeing puts the 737 to sleep with the MAX 10 SUPER (they'll do a follow on to the MAX 10, see if they don't), and they amke extensive use of composites in the alleged MoM 797.

Because thus far the only thing Boeing has going is that one variant of the A320-1neo engines aren't performing well.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
August 9th, 2017 at 2:57:35 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 704
Posts: 8124
Quote: Nareed
They also waited too long to do the MAX, allowing Airbus to market, sell and deliver the neo earlier.


Well the MAX was a reaction to the neo.

Quote: Nareed
Because thus far the only thing Boeing has going is that one variant of the A320-1neo engines aren't performing well.


With 136 neos delivered and only 6 MAXs it's possible there simply isn't enough operational time to see problems with the MAX.
August 9th, 2017 at 6:34:34 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 318
Posts: 10840
Quote: Pacomartin
Well the MAX was a reaction to the neo.


Exactly. Why did Boeing think they could coast a long time on a 90s upgrade to a 60s airplane?


Quote:
With 136 neos delivered and only 6 MAXs it's possible there simply isn't enough operational time to see problems with the MAX.


True. but the neo's engine's problems showed up before the first delivery, which is why Qatar passed on being the launch customer.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
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