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Is it over?
| October 26th, 2012 at 3:55:55 AM permalink | |
| s2dbaker Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 13 Posts: 241 | The problem with national polls is that they count the South. Support for Mitt Romney in the South is huge. In the Northeast, Midwest and West, Obama's support is solid but close. The South is making the national polling tell a different story than what's really happening. |
| October 26th, 2012 at 5:35:05 AM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 10 Posts: 147 |
That's probably true. They also can't count early voters in the polls. Can't even talk to them once they've established that a respondent has already voted. So that adds skew, too. Big early voting states like NC and IA have more D than R that have already voted, but Romney may win them. Mail-in voting states like OR and WA are affected, too, but they'll retain the D edge. Long story short, Romney probably will win among the people who have not yet voted (and that's what is essentially being polled at this point) - but he could still easily lose the overall election. I'm not wearing any pants, film at 11 |
| October 26th, 2012 at 6:41:23 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
Doesn't matter much. Obama support in CA, Paciffic NW, and Northeast balances this out nationally. An interesting question is why do the Democrats get such support along what amounts to within 200 miles of the coasts and a few big cities and the GOP most of the rest. The President is a fink. |
| October 26th, 2012 at 9:57:05 AM permalink | |
| TheCesspit Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 23 Posts: 1929 |
get your money lined up on your favourite exchange. Early polling results will see a Democrat lead, and if it's not to extreme, that can bode well for Mitt, and the markets will show value for the Republican. I still expect the incumbent to win this election, but the US system is very sensitive... just a small change in a small area can swing the electoral college, which can swing the overall result. I really should get intrade sorted out this weekend for myself. It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life |
| October 27th, 2012 at 4:47:22 AM permalink | |
| johnnyq Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1 Posts: 29 | Well we'll know in 10 days, right ? Best Campaign buttons I have seen so far: a) Vote for the Mormon, not the Moron. b) Mitt Happens. |
| October 27th, 2012 at 8:56:15 PM permalink | |
| s2dbaker Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 13 Posts: 241 | That is an interesting question. Another interesting question would be what are the five largest cities to vote for John McCain in the 2008 Presidential Election, and where to they rank overall in the list of the largest cities. |
| October 27th, 2012 at 9:13:22 PM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 10 Posts: 147 |
that really is an interesting question. Do you know the answer? I know that Columbus is the largest city represented solely by GOP Congresspeople, and I know that Cincy is the largest "conservative" city. But I think they both voted for Obama. I'm not wearing any pants, film at 11 |
| October 27th, 2012 at 9:15:54 PM permalink | |
| s2dbaker Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 13 Posts: 241 | I do not know the answer but I would guess that Jacksonville, FL is one of them ( which is less than 200 miles from a coast ) |
| October 27th, 2012 at 9:26:28 PM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 10 Posts: 147 |
Some of the NYC 'burbs are big and red, too. Yonkers, maybe? Norfolk, VA? Anaheim and/or Santa Ana in CA? I'm not wearing any pants, film at 11 |
| October 27th, 2012 at 9:31:30 PM permalink | |
| s2dbaker Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 13 Posts: 241 | Certainly not Yonkers. I know less about the LA 'burbs. La Jolla perhaps? |