In The News Today...

Quote: Dalex64

In other words, it doesn't model it.

It does model it, that's why they announced it.
If it didn't model it, they would have said that,
instead of what they did say. That would have
got them off the hook if they were wrong. It does
model a Trump win, and they don't like it.

Notice they chose the Gallup pole to show a
large gap in favorable/unfavorable. Yet just
days before, three other national polls had
Clinton at 57% unfave, and trump at 61%.
That's close enough to be in the margin of
error. They also mention polls again and again
as the reason their model might be wrong.
I can show source after source that that says
the polls in Aug, when millions of voters,
especially Repub voters, are on vacation, are
notoriously skewed to the Dems. I don't
look at or talk about polls till the middle of
Sept. I mentioned the one that called 50K
people only because it's unofficial and an
outlier.

This:

Quote:

The nomination of Trump by the Republican Party in 2016 appears to violate both of the Time for Change model’s key assumptions.

And their closing statement:

Quote:

Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls.

If you look at those poll aggregator sites, you can see the results of many polls for much more than just August.

But, if you want to wait until September, fine. The Time For Change people seem to consider them to be important and significant, though. So much so as to cast the doubt themselves on their own model.

Their covering their asses by predicting both
outcomes. The model says one thing, but
the polls bother them so they say the other
too. Either way they win. See, our model was
correct. See, we told you the model wasn't
correct this time. Very chickenshit. It's Trump,
nothing fits him. Sabato said there was zero
chance Trump would win the nomination, so
now he has to say Trump will beat Hillary?

Now there's a new kind of poll floating around,
a crowd appeal poll. Never has anybody won
the presidency by having low turnout numbers
at rallies. Trump continues to pack them, Hillary
can't fill half a gym some days. The same happened
to Obama in 08 and Bill in 92. Low turnout at
rallies almost always means low turnout at the polls.

Amazing video from the flooding yesterday.
I was on the edge of my seat, a scenario
like this is one of my nightmares. When he
came up with the dog I spontaneously applauded
these heroes. Just amazing. All this woman
wanted was for them to save her dog.

Quote: Evenbob

Their covering their asses by predicting both
outcomes. The model says one thing, but
the polls bother them so they say the other
too. Either way they win. See, our model was
correct. See, we told you the model wasn't
correct this time. Very chickenshit. It's Trump,
nothing fits him. Sabato said there was zero
chance Trump would win the nomination, so
now he has to say Trump will beat Hillary?

Now there's a new kind of poll floating around,
a crowd appeal poll. Never has anybody won
the presidency by having low turnout numbers
at rallies. Trump continues to pack them, Hillary
can't fill half a gym some days. The same happened
to Obama in 08 and Bill in 92. Low turnout at
rallies almost always means low turnout at the polls.

It's 2012 all over again!!!!

I truly am giddy.

EB is in for a rough election night......

Quote: Evenbob

Amazing video from the flooding yesterday.
I was on the edge of my seat, a scenario
like this is one of my nightmares. When he
came up with the dog I spontaneously applauded
these heroes. Just amazing. All this woman
wanted was for them to save her dog.

Can you fix this so it plays?

Quote: Evenbob

I don't
look at or talk about polls till the middle of
Sept.

Then who hijacked your account in May and June when your posts kept cherry picking polls showing Trump ahead????

Quote: petroglyph

Quote: Evenbob

Amazing video from the flooding yesterday.
I was on the edge of my seat, a scenario
like this is one of my nightmares. When he
came up with the dog I spontaneously applauded
these heroes. Just amazing. All this woman
wanted was for them to save her dog.

Can you fix this so it plays?

Plays fine when I click on it.

Quote: Evenbob

Plays fine when I click on it.

Thanks. Probably my forced install of w10, or the latest Adobe? Sounds like a heart warming story.

Quote: Evenbob

Plays fine when I click on it.

Doesn't work for me either