Airbus 380

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September 8th, 2014 at 8:48:58 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 636
Posts: 7249
The Airbus 380 should be a lot more visible in Northern America with twin service to Sydney and Dubai starting from DFW. British Airways had 5 A380's delivered and should begin using them to the USA. Korean Air and Asiana flying competing A380 from Seoul to LAX. The list of airports that can handle the jet keeps expanding.

Los Angeles (LAX)
New York (JFK)
San Francisco (SFO)
Washington (IAD)
Atlanta (ATL)
Miami (MIA)
Toronto (YYZ)
Houston (IAH)
Dallas (DFW)

But the A380 program is not going very well. They have 140 airframes delivered and ostensibly there are 178 orders on the books (88 of them to Emirates). In reality at least 60 of those orders are questionable. Air France doesn't want it's last 2, Qantas is nearly bankrupt and doesn't want it last 8, Singapore Air has not accepted a new one in 2 years (so it may never take it's last 5), Virgin Air has delayed it's order for 6 for 14 years and may cancel, Hong Kong Air has 10 on the books but is involved in a nasty trade fight with EU and Chinese Government, Transaero from Russia may not be able to afford it's order. North and South America and Africa has shown little interest in the jet. Europe is only flying 28 out of 140 (20% of their own Airbus jets).

Airbus is trying to maintain a schedule of producing one A380 every two weeks. But if things don't improve, Emirates may have to try and absorb the entire production. Emirates took 4 of the last 6 deliveries, and is scheduled for the next one. If public fight between Qatar Airlines and Airbus does not get resolved, Emirates may have to take that one as well.
September 8th, 2014 at 9:10:07 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 95
Posts: 5621
Quote: Pacomartin


Airbus is trying to maintain a schedule of producing one A380 every two weeks. But if things don't improve, Emirates may have to try and absorb the entire production. Emirates took 4 of the last 6 deliveries, and is scheduled for the next one. If public fight between Qatar Airlines and Airbus does not get resolved, Emirates may have to take that one as well.


The A380 is what happens when government produces things. As far back as the late 1980s BA and Airbus talked about jointly producing such a large plane. Boeing backed out and decided it was better to fly fewer, smaller planes. Airbus plowed ahead and looked good for a few years. Meanwhile BA churns out reliable 747s.

Perhaps this is because BA is interested in....................................profit?
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
September 8th, 2014 at 12:10:43 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 636
Posts: 7249
Quote: AZDuffman
Boeing backed out and decided it was better to fly fewer, smaller planes. Airbus plowed ahead and looked good for a few years. Meanwhile BA churns out reliable 747s.

Perhaps this is because BA is interested in....................................profit?


To be fair, Airbus predicted the need for 1300 planes, while Boeing said no more than 500. Boeing has maintained the use of the 747 for frieght with all orders for a freight version of the A380 now cancelled. It seems that the ability to load freight in the nose is the crucial decision factor.



The typical delusion factor was the Airbus did a study that said they would break even if they could sell only 230 aircraft. With Emirates ordering 140 aircraft and 88 already delivered to 10 other airlines, the total of 230 should be easily attainable. But it is doubtful if they could break even today selling 500 of the airframe.

Emirates is heavily invested having built a terminal that is especially designed to make it easy to load the A380. They are unlikely to back out of their full order at this time.


Officially, Airbus is claiming that they have 90 firm orders from airlines other than Emirates, but I think they are completely full of it. For example if you read the Qantas website, it is clear that they are never going to purchase those 8 A380's unless a miracle occurs. Virgin has deferred their order placed in 2000 to at least 2018.

Quote: Quantas website

Regarding transformation program
* $2 billion cost reduction, including 5,000 jobs
* $1 billion capital expenditure reduction
* More than 50 aircraft to be deferred or sold
Qantas International’s eight remaining A380 orders will be deferred, with an ongoing review of delivery dates to meet potential future requirements. Schedule changes will allow maximum use of Qantas’ current 12 A380s.


Qantas figured it could use it's 12 A380's on these six routes
(QF) Sydney (SYD) – Hong Kong (HKG)
(QF) Sydney (SYD) – Los Angeles (LAX)
(QF) Melbourne (MEL) – Los Angeles (LAX)
(QF) Sydney (SYD) – Dallas (DFW) The longest commercial flight now operating in the world.
(QF) Melbourne (MEL) – Dubai (DXB) – London (LHR)
(QF) Sydney (SYD) – Dubai (DXB) – London (LHR)
The quickest and most efficient way to get to London was to use the terminal at Dubai built by Emirates to handle the A380's


The problem is that they are duplicating the same routes that Emirates is using their A380 to get to Australia and on to New Zealand. So they are in direct competition with the same airframe.
(EK) Dubai (DXB) – Sydney (SYD) – Auckland
(EK) Dubai (DXB) – Melbourne (MEL) – Auckland
(EK) Dubai (DXB) – Brisbane (BNE) – Auckland
September 8th, 2014 at 1:01:36 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 636
Posts: 7249
The biggest problem is that if Airbus produces one airframe every two weeks they will make 150 A380's in 6 years (time off for holidays). At that point Emirates will begin retiring their 12 year old A380s. The rest of the world may simply lease or buy these older frames. If Emirates moves on to Boeing models, then there may be no demand and airbus will have to shut down production and write off their losses.
September 8th, 2014 at 1:54:34 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 301
Posts: 9766
Quote: Pacomartin
At that point Emirates will begin retiring their 12 year old A380s. The rest of the world may simply lease or buy these older frames. If Emirates moves on to Boeing models, then there may be no demand and airbus will have to shut down production and write off their losses.


Anything on tap for that time frame? On aircraft development time, that's rather soon. I'm assuming Boeing will be working on refining existing designs, and putting out the battery fires on the 787 ;) All I know about Airbus is a "coming soon" new model of the A-320 with extended range and reduced fuel consumption. Apparently they're ditching the wing fences in favor or winglets.

I'm still waiting for a passenger plane with a canard....
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
September 8th, 2014 at 2:35:09 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 636
Posts: 7249
Quote: Nareed
Anything on tap for that time frame?


Remember the first five A380's delivered to Emirates were 5 to 6 years ago. So they will hit their 12 year lease date very soon. Emirates has made it very clear that they will not keep any airframes longer than necessary. They want the newest fleet possible.

So there will certainly be no major new developments in very big airplanes (over 400 passengers). Both companies are having trouble selling their current design.

All the competition is in single aisle jets. The A321 is selling very well, and the new version of the A320 has a huge number of orders. Boeing was going to wait for 6 years to come out with a totally revamped 737, but Southwest threatened to dump their 737's they've been using for forty years and switch to the A320 (they have 600 planes). Boeing panicked and decided to develop something called the 737Max that they could begin producing sooner.

Airbus has received 10,934 orders for the A319/320/321/320neo family of which it has delivered 6,201 (228 are out of operation). Of these orders from Mexico
Interjet (20 delivered of 60 orders) , Volaris (19 delivered of 63 orders), and Vivaaerobus (52 on order). In addition all three airlines are operating older models picked up from other fleets.

Boeing has received 9,056 orders for 737 of which it has delivered 5,048. Aeromexico has 60 of the 737 MAX on order.

Still, every future concept airplane shows a giant aircraft
September 8th, 2014 at 3:32:24 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 95
Posts: 5621
Quote: Pacomartin


Emirates is heavily invested having built a terminal that is especially designed to make it easy to load the A380. They are unlikely to back out of their full order at this time.


The UAE is actively trying to make their airport and airline a crossroads of the world. Their fortune is probably large enough that they will never make a small fortune in aviation.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
September 8th, 2014 at 4:44:24 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 636
Posts: 7249
Quote: AZDuffman
The UAE is actively trying to make their airport and airline a crossroads of the world. Their fortune is probably large enough that they will never make a small fortune in aviation.


Supposedly Emirates Air makes a steady profit. The Airport is now the 2nd largest airport by international passenger traffic, losing out to London Heathrow by only a very small number of passengers

2013 international passengers
66.69m Heathrow
65.87m Dubai International Airport
September 8th, 2014 at 5:16:55 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 95
Posts: 5621
Quote: Pacomartin
Supposedly Emirates Air makes a steady profit. The Airport is now the 2nd largest airport by international passenger traffic, losing out to London Heathrow by only a very small number of passengers



I wonder how much of this might be due to sweetheart deals on fuel. I basically refuse to believe any airline anywhere makes a profit over the long term. Dubai it trying to be London, Hong Kong, and New York all rolled into one. "The World" already failed. The place is no Potemkin Village, but it is not as real as it seems, either.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
September 8th, 2014 at 6:27:39 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 34
Posts: 2501
Quote: Pacomartin
Supposedly Emirates Air makes a steady profit. The Airport is now the 2nd largest airport by international passenger traffic, losing out to London Heathrow by only a very small number of passengers

2013 international passengers
66.69m Heathrow
65.87m Dubai International Airport


I book a lot of international travel but just about everything I book skews to originating in USA.
I book a ton to LHR, but almost always as a destination, rarely as a connecting point.
I do book Emirates to DXB but that's about it. They do have a fabulous reputation.
I mostly book
USA to ASIA - Everybody prefers going west (over the pacific), get there next day. other direction such as EK 2 days
USA to Europe
USA to South America.
When I do round the world, sometimes I consider Emirates to connect Europe to Asia and vice versa. Depending on clients scheduling needs, may sell EK if they have best schedule for a connection. But usually round the world travelers try to stay with the same alliance for miles, which Emirates isn't a part of.
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
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