The Coronavirus thread

Quote: rxwine

Trump gives himself and A+ on handling the coronavirus.

It's a stretch to give him a C.

A C is way below what he should get.

Not sure what kind of magic you expect. Deaths projected in the millions. Deaths from the virus alone less than 20,000.

Quote: AZDuffman

A C is way below what he should get.

Not sure what kind of magic you expect. Deaths projected in the millions. Deaths from the virus alone less than 20,000.

Pure head-in-the-sand nonsense.

Quote: rxwine

Trump gives himself and A+ on handling the coronavirus.

It's a stretch to give him a C.

F
200k dead and he refuses to unite the country against the virus

Quote: AZDuffman

A C is way below what he should get.

Not sure what kind of magic you expect. Deaths projected in the millions. Deaths from the virus alone less than 20,000.

lol

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us-previous.html

I think there was one study that projected 2.2 million deaths if we did absolutely nothing to fight it. Think it was from Europe. Can't remember and won't waste energy lookign it up because it's ridiculous.

Quote: Evenbob

The vast vast number of Mexican women over 30 are fat.

Not so much the men. At all.

Obesity in kg per square meter
WHO rates
Mexican women as slightly fatter than American women ( 28.7 vs 28.5)
Mexican men as skinnier than American men ( 27.5 vs 28.5)

Quote: Pacomartin

Obesity in kg per square meter
WHO rates
Mexican women as slightly fatter than American women ( 28.7 vs 28.5)
Mexican men as skinnier than American men ( 27.5 vs 28.5)

Are those BMIs or something else? Never seen it listed as kilogram per square meter.

Quote: Tripdufan

lol

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us-previous.html

I think there was one study that projected 2.2 million deaths if we did absolutely nothing to fight it. Think it was from Europe. Can't remember and won't waste energy lookign it up because it's ridiculous.

Why would anyone care if we only lost 2.2 million people. We have 3.8 million kids a year in the U.S..

Quote: Tripdufan

I think there was one study that projected 2.2 million deaths if we did absolutely nothing to fight it. Think it was from Europe. Can't remember and won't waste energy lookign it up because it's ridiculous.

How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19
On March 16, a 20‐​page report from Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London quickly gathered enormous attention by producing enormous death estimates. Dr. Ferguson had previously publicized almost equally sensational death estimates from mad cow disease, bird flu and swine flu.


The New York Times quickly ran the hot news about this new COVID-19 estimate:

The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus. American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.

A month later that 2.2 million estimate was still being used (without revealing the source) by President Trump and Doctors Fauci and Birx to imply that up to two million lives had been saved by state lockdowns and business closings and/​or by federal travel bans.

The following summary of the Ferguson/​Imperial College report provides clues about how the model came to generate such dramatic conclusions:

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months. In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the G.B. and U.S. populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic… In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in G.B. and 2.2 million in the U.S., not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

This worst‐​case simulation came up with 2.2 million deaths by simply assuming that 81% of the population gets infected ­–268 million people– and that 0.9% of them die. It did not assume health systems would have to be overwhelmed to result in so many deaths, though it did make that prediction.

Quote: DRich

Why would anyone care if we only lost 2.2 million people. We have 3.8 million kids a year in the U.S..

The population increases by about 2.3 million per year. Certainly if 2.2 million died from COVID some of those would have been part of the 2.77 million that were going to die anyway.

year: births - deaths + net immigration = population increase
2020 4,118,072- 2,767,557+ 1,011,223 = 2,361,738
2021 4,130,530- 2,797,237+ 1,015,045 = 2,348,339
2022 4,142,559- 2,826,926+ 1,018,773 = 2,334,406

Quote: Pacomartin

The population increases by about 2.3 million per year. Certainly if 2.2 million died from COVID some of those would have been part of the 2.77 million that were going to die anyway.

About 95% would have.

Quote: rxwine

Trump gives himself and A+ on handling the coronavirus.

It's a stretch to give him a C.

I'd probably give him a, "C," or thereabouts. There's only so much, "Handling," one can do. The only thing I think he could have done better is maybe take it more seriously (publicly) and have the Federal Government give more direct guidance. He also should have strongly stressed the masks (after the hospital shortage was over) from day one; particularly to his supporters.

It's amazing how snowflakey some of the people on the right are about the mask-wearing. That doesn't mean I think there should be mask mandates or maximum occupancy (except...maybe very large indoor gatherings) mandates, but that the recommendations should have been made for individuals (and businesses) to do of their own accord.

I can't tell you how many people in nearby West Virginia at least claimed things like, "I'm not going to go to Store XYZ again because they're making people wear the masks and it's not the law." I guess they at least get how free association works.

Except, now it is kind of a mandate in places where social distancing cannot be maintained.

Being a Libertarian, I'm all about personal choice, but that doesn't change the fact that some people (many of them Trump supporters) are idiots.