Ukraine conflict

Quote: rxwine

Putin could be planning to incinerate Kiev with an atom bomb and then say to the world, what are going to do about it. And that may be it. War over.

That would be the start of a much bigger war. We probably would not respond with nukes unless Russia used one against NATO, but just about every military installation of Russia would be targeted and probably destroyed within 10 days.

Quote: odiousgambit

the article doesn't say the guys underground don't need to be there with their keys. One interpretation: they need to receive launch codes, which the planes can do when other communications are defunct.

Maybe the airplane can launch them without ground involvement as this guy told you, but the article doesn't say so, and I'd like to think not

Movie or Twilight Zone episode(?) where a submarine at sea doesn't receive instructions for launch, but do they launch under uncertainty? Exactly under what conditions can they launch a nuclear attack without instructions?

Quote: DRich

That would be the start of a much bigger war. We probably would not respond with nukes unless Russia used one against NATO, but just about every military installation of Russia would be targeted and probably destroyed within 10 days.

Supposedly, (but you never know) the US has planned out every scenario that could possibly happen and what we would do.

Propaganda or fact, or a bit of both?

Quote:

In January 2023, the Russian news agency TASS reported that Russia had produced the first set of nuclear-powered, very long range, nuclear-armed torpedoes known as “Poseidon.” Strategic experts are warning that the Poseidon torpedo would have the potential to devastate a coastal city, cause radioactive floods, and result in millions of deaths. Over the past few years, tabloid news outlets have painted a hauntingly vivid picture of a towering, 1,000-foot-tall radioactive tsunami violently crashing onto British shores, pulverizing everything in its path, and transforming whole cities into barren, lifeless lands.

https://thebulletin.org/2023/06/one-nuclear-armed-poseidon-torpedo-could-decimate-a-coastal-city-russia-wants-30-of-them/

Quote: rxwine

Supposedly, (but you never know) the US has planned out every scenario that could possibly happen and what we would do.

I'd like to think, one the big secrets is, every President, no matter how competent is handed a pre-prepared packaged scenario from the military, with all the pros and cons of US reaction to whatever crops up.

Quote: rxwine

Movie or Twilight Zone episode(?) where a submarine at sea doesn't receive instructions for launch, but do they launch under uncertainty? Exactly under what conditions can they launch a nuclear attack without instructions?

If you're talking about submarines, the answer is never. The authentication codes and the physical keys are kept under combination lock onboard. Nobody on board knows the combinations to those locks. The combinations are transmitted with the launch order. No launch order=no access to the keys to launch. Of course, someone can blow the safe open, or take a crowbar to the access panels and hot wire a missile, but that would take a serious breakdown of command and control and discipline on the scale of a ship wide mutiny.

There's plenty of factual information online about the steps needed to launch, and a bunch of videos of weapons drills. Worth looking in to for those interested.

Quote: GenoDRPh

If you're talking about submarines, the answer is never. The authentication codes and the physical keys are kept under combination lock onboard. Nobody on board knows the combinations to those locks. The combinations are transmitted with the launch order. No launch order=no access to the keys to launch. Of course, someone can blow the safe open, or take a crowbar to the access panels and hot wire a missile, but that would take a serious breakdown of command and control and discipline on the scale of a ship wide mutiny.

There's plenty of factual information online about the steps needed to launch, and a bunch of videos of weapons drills. Worth looking in to for those interested.

During the Civil War, there was actual confederate ship sinking ships for like a month after the war officially ended because they were cut off from news. Of course, that’s sort of the opposite of what I’m talking about.

Quote: rxwine

During the Civil War, there was actual confederate ship sinking ships for like a month after the war officially ended because they were cut off from news. Of course, that’s sort of the opposite of what I’m talking about.

The Battle of New Orleans was fought 15 days after the War of 1812 was over. The news hadn't reached America yet.

There is no scenario under which a sub commander would launch a strike without a valid launch order, and sub captains and senior officers don't have the discretion to issue the order themselves. Even if there is no response to repeated messages by the sub to the Pentagon for orders, the sub wouldn't launch without a valid order. And there is no standing order to launch "in case of" or as a last resort (like the British have).

Any scenario under which a sub would launch on their own is the realm of Tom Clancy-like thrillers or Hollywood scripts.

Getting back to the original topic: Putin isn't dumb enough to nuke Kiev or any other part of Ukraine. The US has warplanned out that scenario, and conventional weapons response if that happened. And we've probably already told Vladimir to knock it of, if he knows what's good for him.

Quote: rxwine

I'd like to think, one the big secrets is, every President, no matter how competent is handed a pre-prepared packaged scenario from the military, with all the pros and cons of US reaction to whatever crops up.

I would assume at least three different scenarios are proposed to the president and yes they have all been flushed out for years.

From Fox News no less.

Quote:

Vance said this month that if elected to the White House, Trump would work with Russia, Ukraine and European leaders to establish a "peaceful settlement" that would grant Moscow the territory it has illegally seized since its 2022 invasion.

Upon Kyiv’s agreement to gift the land to Russia, there would then be the creation of a demilitarized zone along the current front lines, Ukraine would be fortified to deter a third Russian invasion, and Kyiv would agree to give up its plans to join NATO – a proposal that Western security experts have said would be a substantial win for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This idea goes over like a lead balloon. Why. It'd be like the USA just giving up Texas to settle a war. (well, I might agree if they took Gov Abbot)