ESPN's future

Quote: Pacomartin

There is a theory that "cord-cutting" is going to increase massively by next quarter so that the numbers are going to exceed 1 million every 3 months. The alternatives are too plentiful and too cheap. Traditional Cable TV is increasingly becoming the alternative for technophobes, old people, and sports fans.

I'd be interested if you could expand on why next quarter. I still can see it massively expanding due to the 20/80 market theory, meaning time from 0-20% of a market is same as 21-80%. Early adopters get others to follow. That tipping point might already be here. I notice at family gatherings more and more of the under-55s all talk about how they have or will cut cable. Last time we spent an hour or more discussing and demonstrating the FireStick. Kind of a guy's Tupperware party.

Quote: AZDuffman

I'd be interested if you could expand on why next quarter. I still can see it massively expanding due to the 20/80 market theory, meaning time from 0-20% of a market is same as 21-80%. Early adopters get others to follow. That tipping point might already be here. I notice at family gatherings more and more of the under-55s all talk about how they have or will cut cable. Last time we spent an hour or more discussing and demonstrating the FireStick. Kind of a guy's Tupperware party.

Well the entire report is 41 pages long.
https://www.dslreports.com/r0/download/2320700~0247eb793a5288cbd466d4804f6f46d7/TiVo_Q1_2017_Video_Trends_Report.pdf

They talk about Subscription and Transactional Video-On-Demand (SVOD and TVOD). Netflix is the clear leader in SVOD, and while many people are aware that you can purchase an episode of The Big Bang Theory for $3 on iTunes, most people don't engage in TVOD as it seems like a ridiculous amount of money for 22 minutes of sitcom.

Analysts of cable television point out that many people end up paying a lot of money every month, because they want to see Food Network, Fox News, or AMC's walking dead. In the long run you might be better off paying $3 to $5 in TVOD for a favorite show and your monthly payment will be reduced.

The other advantage of prepaid services is you can always do without on a month when finances are tight. Accounts are typically not closed for six months without a single payment.

Why this quarter?

I think that the incentives have since become massive. Consider AT&T which last November was offering unlimited talk/text/data cell service for over $100 and Direct TV Now for $35 plus HBO Now for $15. For $150 you could pretty much get a home triple play service with phone/internet/basic cable TV. You might use a TRACFONE to get some cellular minutes for not much more.

Since last November AT&T has dropped the price for unlimited talk/text/data cell service & Direct TV NOW & HBO to $70 a month (after three month wait). That's over a 50% reduction in about half a year. A single person could consider this package as complete since he can cast the image from his phone to a large home television with bluetooth.
http://links.directvnow.com/e/viewInBrowser?index=2ca11b773679481da7cf64b4be83b1ec&email=frankamartin%40gmail.com&messageId=4a8d0338463d4ff4a8d9eb3e9bd5249a

I say "single person" because you must rely on a single device, which a multiple person household cannot accomplish.

As Millennials Turn Their Backs on Baseball, Could ESPN Cut the Cord?

ESPN might have to make a choice of baseball or football in 2021. Not like a wife telling her husband one or the other, but because of rights fees. Research so far showing ESPN does little research on who is watching.

Tough decision. Football gets more viewers per game, but how many more baseball games can they air?

Quote: AZDuffman

Tough decision. Football gets more viewers per game, but how many more baseball games can they air?

yawn
I don't watch much football and the Rays have their own channel
I could care less who broadcasts sports as long as sports its broadcasted

The ESPN over-the-top service, set to debut early next year, will exclude NFL and NBA games from the 10,000 live events in the lineup.

Quote: Disney’s Streaming Dreams: How Disruptive Is Its New Netflix-Style Strategy, Really? © Copyright 2017 Variety Media

AUGUST 9, 2017
The Mouse House is moving to cut the cord: Disney plans to launch at least two direct-to-consumer streaming subscription services, for ESPN and Disney movies and TV shows, in the next two years.

But right now, it’s not clear how dramatic the change will be for Disney as a whole. More than anything, it looks like a hedge against declining pay-TV subs — a desire to better control over its destiny in a streaming world. What’s important to realize is that Disney is not turning its back on the traditional TV biz: The ESPN over-the-top service, set to debut early next year, will exclude NFL and NBA games from the 10,000 live events in the lineup. To watch ESPN’s pro football and basketball action, you’ll need to buy a regular TV bundle.

In addition, the Disney-branded subscription package will include Disney and Pixar films — after it yanks them away from Netflix, ending its three-year output deal with the streaming colossus beginning with 2019 theatrical releases. But where movies from Marvel Entertainment and Lucasfilm’s “Star Wars” franchise wind up is TBD.

Whichever way that pans out, it shows Disney isn’t at this point ready to throw everything it has into a subscription VOD rival to Netflix. In fact, it’s conceivable Disney could sell SVOD streaming rights to “Star Wars” and Marvel pics to Netflix for the right price.

Obviously without prices it is difficult to speculate. But ESPN excluding NFL and NBA probably won't cost more than $10.

On the other hand, without NFL and NBA, this new streaming service may be lucky to get more than a few million subscribers. The impact on the financial health of ESPN might be minimal.

Quote: Pacomartin

The ESPN over-the-top service, set to debut early next year, will exclude NFL and NBA games from the 10,000 live events in the lineup.

Obviously without prices it is difficult to speculate. But ESPN excluding NFL and NBA probably won't cost more than $10.

On the other hand, without NFL and NBA, this new streaming service may be lucky to get more than a few million subscribers. The impact on the financial health of ESPN might be minimal.

This looks like the record industry's first answer to Napster, it was subscription, one device, computer only. It failed. Now ESPN will offer a service without the two most premium offerings?

Still in denial in House of Mouse.

Quote: Pacomartin

The ESPN over-the-top service, set to debut early next year, will exclude NFL and NBA games from the 10,000 live events in the lineup.



Obviously without prices it is difficult to speculate. But ESPN excluding NFL and NBA probably won't cost more than $10.

On the other hand, without NFL and NBA, this new streaming service may be lucky to get more than a few million subscribers. The impact on the financial health of ESPN might be minimal.

Did ESPN have many of those games? I thought they only had about one NFL game on ESPN each week. I don't watch much NBA but I do know most of their games are on TBS and TNT.

Quote: DRich

Did ESPN have many of those games? I thought they only had about one NFL game on ESPN each week. I don't watch much NBA but I do know most of their games are on TBS and TNT.

I think ESPN has only NFL Monday Night Football and NBA games three to four times per week.

I think there will be a market for ESPN without NFL and NBA, but I suspect it will be fairly small.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think ESPN has only NFL Monday Night Football and NBA games three to four times per week.

I think there will be a market for ESPN without NFL and NBA, but I suspect it will be fairly small.

The only ESPN show I watch that isn't live sports is Pardon the interruption.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think ESPN has only NFL Monday Night Football and NBA games three to four times per week.

I think there will be a market for ESPN without NFL and NBA, but I suspect it will be fairly small.

College bowl games would have to be the biggest draw for this service. ESPN has nearly all of the top bowl games.