Bombardier CS100

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October 17th, 2017 at 9:34:35 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Nareed
they should abandon the MAX 7, no question. And they should develop a competitor for the C Series, and move full steam ahead on the 797.


Right now the MAX-8 and the closely related MAX-200 are worthy competitors to the CS300 series. Even Canadian airlines have ordered over a 100 of these planes. But it is clear that Airbus wants to continue with planes to stretch the CS300 to a 165 passenger CS500. Then the lineup of CS300 to CS500 to A320neo to A321 neo to "A321 neo long range variant" has the potential to push Boeing to a minor player in the narrowbody market. And that is before COMAC and Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft join in the process.

The situation is dire. They have 7 years of production to meet these orders.

They need to start on their ground up design, even if it is for the Middle of the Market.
October 17th, 2017 at 9:53:47 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
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Quote: Pacomartin
They need to start on their ground up design, even if it is for the Middle of the Market.


I think they'll do the joint venture with COMAC. China would love nothing better, and Europe would hate nothing worse.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 18th, 2017 at 1:13:29 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
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Quote: Nareed
I think they'll do the joint venture with COMAC. China would love nothing better, and Europe would hate nothing worse.


Airbus has a fairly large number of deliveries in the USA.

Quote: Airbus Political blurb
As a leading supplier and industrial partner in defence and homeland security, Airbus, Inc. and its parent company, Airbus, contribute around $16.5 billion to the US economy annually, supporting 260,000 American jobs across approximately 40 states. Since its creation in 2002, Airbus Defense and Space, Inc. has been selected in key competitions for military aircraft and systems.

Airbus Business Units, operating companies and Divisions are found in 38 locations across 16 states.
In commercial aviation, more than 3,200 Airbus aircraft have been ordered by North American customers, with over 2,200 delivered, while Airbus Helicopters is one of the US leaders in civil helicopters.
http://company.airbus.com/company/worldwide-presence/united-states.html


Their political claims seem to conflict with their database
Orders, Deliveries - North America
2031 Total Orders
1423 Total Deliveries


Airbus Wide bodies.(USA only)
414 Total Orders
293 Total Deliveries
235 Aircraft in Operation
121 unfilled orders
Airbus narrow bodies. (USA only)
1512 Total Orders
1025 Total Deliveries
1175 Aircraft in Operation
487 unfilled orders

Boeing 737 Max orders (USA only)
200 Southwest Airlines
135 United Airlines
100 American Airlines
32 Alaska Airlines
10 Eastern Air Lines Group, Inc.


So even as worldwide narrow body orders are tipping towards Airbus, within the USA orders are close to equal.
October 18th, 2017 at 7:59:04 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: Pacomartin
So even as worldwide narrow body orders are tipping towards Airbus, within the USA orders are close to equal.


That's fine for a regional manufacturer who doesn't aspire to much else besides.

Airbus, BTW, has got the jump on Boeing, and it didn't even cost them a song. Really, Airbus did the equivalent of acquiring Manhattan for a bunch of beads, as several cartoons have claimed. They didn't even take on debt. and now they have a state of the art narrow body to build on.

Boeing won't die, and wont' be taken over by Airbus. But they may be diminished for decades.

My last prediction, for now: when/if there is a CS 500, it will be assembled in Toulouse.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 18th, 2017 at 9:40:13 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9885
Quote: Nareed
Boeing won't die, and wont' be taken over by Airbus. But they may be diminished for decades.

My last prediction, for now: when/if there is a CS 500, it will be assembled in Toulouse.


CS300 is presently being configured with 145 seats by it's two customers that have received deliveries. I think the exit limit is 160.

We have several airlines with configurations for the MAX-8.
Norwegian Air Shuttle 189 Seats (exit limit)
Lion Air 180 Seats
Southwest 175 Seats
WestJet 174 Seats
American 172 Seats: 126 Economy 16 First 30 Main Cabin Extra
Silk Air 156 Seats: 144 Economy 12 First
flydubai TBD seats

The MAX-8 has a shorter range variant called MAX-200 that can carry 200 seats.

It seems very unlikely that the CS500 will be able to carry as many seats, BUT I don't know for sure. It may be a full scale competitor.

Quote: WSJ May 21, 2015 By Jon Ostrower

Bombardier Weighs Third CSeries Jet Model Plane would compete with single-aisle offerings from rivals, commercial aircraft chief says
Bombardier Inc.ís new commercial aircraft boss said Thursday that it is considering of a third model of its new CSeries jetliner that could compete with the core single-aisle jet offerings from its European and American rivals.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bombardier-weighs-third-cseries-jet-model-1432239757



I think that Bombardier does a lot of assembly in Ireland.
October 18th, 2017 at 12:47:52 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
It seems very unlikely that the CS500 will be able to carry as many seats, BUT I don't know for sure. It may be a full scale competitor.


It would be a mistake to think one can stretch the C Series indefinitely. A CS 500 would be the end of the line.

Past that, Airbus should develop a new narrow body based on design innovations from the C Series, including the passenger-centric features. That way they can debut an A360 within a decade or so. At the same time, they should monitor the operational performance of the CS 100 and 300 to see what improvements the next generation of regional jets need to make.


Quote:
I think that Bombardier does a lot of assembly in Ireland.


Just the wings, AFAIK. of course, that's an important component.

I wonder how Brexit will affect things.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 22nd, 2017 at 3:38:23 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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I was a little surprised to see how many narrowbody Airbus planes were ordered by North American companies compared to Europe. By N.A. I mean mostly USA.
The only qualifier is that most of them are ordered by USA leasing companies, so they may actually be operated elsewhere in the globe.

Region Percent A319neo A320ceo A320neo A321ceo A321neo Total
Asia 34.10% 1,630 1,356 522 491 3,999
Europe 24.38% 1,227 774 445 413 2,859
North America 22.42% 18 1,128 458 659 366 2,629
Latin America 6.92% 20 353 328 65 46 812
Middle East 5.73% 263 263 64 82 672
Africa 0.79% 75 8 8 2 93
undisclosed 5.41% 10 38 480 29 78 635
Gov; Exec and private 0.24% 3 18 6 1 28
Total Result 100.00% 51 4,732 3,673 1,793 1,478 11,727


The A321neo regular range (3,500 nmi) and "long range" (4,000 nmi ) version are not broken out.
However, that A321 neo can sit up to extra rows over the B737-10MAX for the same nominal price, and seems to be selling much better even without the "long range"

Quote: Nareed
Past that, Airbus should develop a new narrow body based on design innovations from the C Series, including the passenger-centric features. That way they can debut an A360 within a decade or so. At the same time, they should monitor the operational performance of the CS 100 and 300 to see what improvements the next generation of regional jets need to make.


The above table is not including Bombardier purchase. So Airbus doesn't really need more help. They are clearly the dominant company in narrowbodies.

2629 orders broken out by North American customer (some airlines bankrupt)
AIR CANADA ROUGE 0 ~operator of Air Canada aircraft
CANADIAN AIRLINES INTERNATIONAL 2 ~bankrupt
AIR CANADA 38
....
ALLEGIANT AIR 12
HAWAIIAN AIRLINES 16
VIRGIN AMERICA 49
UNITED AIRLINES 98
FRONTIER AIRLINES 103
SPIRIT AIRLINES 128
NORTHWEST AIRLINES 78~merged with Delta
DELTA AIR LINES 122
JETBLUE AIRWAYS 278
AMERICA WEST AIRLINES 23 ~merged with AA
US AIRWAYS 149~merged with AA
AMERICAN AIRLINES 171
...
GECAS 484
ILFC 304
AIR LEASE CORPORATION 211
CIT 164
AVIATION CAPITAL GROUP 124
BOULLIOUN 28
MACQUARIE AIRCRAFT LEASING LTD 43
October 23rd, 2017 at 7:31:53 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
The above table is not including Bombardier purchase. So Airbus doesn't really need more help. They are clearly the dominant company in narrowbodies.


For now.

I suppose airbus may be betting that Boeing won't design a new narrow body between now and, say, the year 4,000,000 CE. But I don't think that's a good bet.

I wonder, too, how much range one could get off a clean slate narrow body using composites and all we've learned about aerodynamics since the late 80s.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
October 24th, 2017 at 3:31:57 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 822
Posts: 9885
Quote: Nareed
I wonder, too, how much range one could get off a clean slate narrow body using composites and all we've learned about aerodynamics since the late 80s.


The Middle of Market is , by definition for Boeing, between
Boeing 737 MAX-9 of 194,700 lb of maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) for 178 passengers in two class over a 3,515 nmi range,
Boeing 787-8 of 502,500 lb of MTOW for 335 passengers in a 2 class configuration over a 7,355 nmi range.

The Middle of Market is , by definition for Airbus, between
A321neoLR of 214,000 lb of MTOW for 206 passengers in two class over a 4,000 nmi range, and the
A330neo-800 of 534,000 lb for 257 passengers in three class over a 7,500 nmi range.

Not everyone believes that long range narrowbodies are the wave of the future for the Middle of Market.

At the March 2015 International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders conference, Air Lease Corporation's Steven Udvar-Hazy predicted the 757 replacement as a more capable, clean-sheet 767-like twin-aisle airplane capable of taking off 7,000 feet runways like New York LaGuardia.

Frankly, I don't believe that scenario is possible. Boeing would have made a short range Dreamliner 787-7 if it was economical
767-300ER Exit limit 351 seats Fuel capacity 16,700 US gal (5,980nmi range)
787-8 Exit limit 381 Fuel capacity 33,340 US gal (7,355 nmi range)

In February 2015, Boeing marketing Vice President Randy Tinseth stated re-engining the 757 had been studied but there was no business case to support it., and Tinseth is focused on 20% more range and more capacity than the 757-200.

ALthough Airbus's claim that there is a market for 1000 narrowbodies with the 4000 nmi range, so far there are not that many clear orders for the Long Range Version vs the 3500 nmi version.

In other words orders for the A321neo have been strong, but other than Norwegian Air Shuttle widely reported upgrade for the order for 30 regular version to long range versions in 2016, other airlines have been silent.

Notably American Airlines ordered 100 A321neos, but it is not clear how many, if any, will be the long range version
49 Airbus A320 :22.1 years
53 McDonnell Douglas MD-80/90: 24.7 years
51 Boeing 757: 19.9 years



Order date Customer A321neo
27. Apr. 2011 AerCap 53
22. Jun. 2011 IndiGo 25
22. Jun. 2011 LATAM Airlines Group 19
23. Jun. 2011 AirAsia 100
8. Aug. 2011 Cebu Pacific 32
10. Aug. 2011 Lufthansa 40
10. Aug. 2011 CIT Group 1
6. Oct. 2011 Qantas 45
27. Oct. 2011 JetBlue 60
14. Nov. 2011 ALAFCO 10
15. Nov. 2011 Qatar Airways 16
15. Nov. 2011 Aviation Capital Group 14
26. Jan. 2012 Avianca 17
6. Jun. 2012 Air Lease Corporation 141
8. Jun. 2012 Norwegian Air Shuttle 30 ============= upgraded to Long Range Version in 2016
9. Jul. 2012 Arkia 4
28. Aug. 2012 Philippine Airlines 21
30. Aug. 2012 ICBC Leasing 11
3. Sep. 2012 Gulf Air 17
7. Dec. 2012 Middle East Airlines 9
18. Dec. 2012 Pegasus Airlines 18
19. Dec. 2012 BOC Aviation 17
23. Jan. 2013 American Airlines 100
15. Mar. 2013 Turkish Airlines 92
18. Mar. 2013 Lion Air 65
25. Mar. 2013 Hawaiian Airlines 16
11. Jul. 2013 EasyJet 30
17. Nov. 2013 Etihad Airways 26
11. Feb. 2014 VietJet Air 31
27. Mar. 2014 ANA Holdings 22
1. Jun. 2014 Air New Zealand 4
17. Jun. 2014 Hong Kong Aviation Capital 30
17. Sep. 2014 Swiss International Air Lines 5
1. Dec. 2014 Azul Brazilian Airlines 10
12. Jan. 2015 China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings 1
13. Jan. 2015 =======================Airbus launches A321neo "long range" with true transatlantic capability
16. Jun. 2015 GE Capital Aviation Services 34
31. Jul. 2015 Asiana Airlines 25
6. Aug. 2015 British Airways 10
14. Sep. 2015 Wizz Air (Hungary) 110
3. Nov. 2015 Korean Air 30
5. Nov. 2015 Iberia 3
13. Nov. 2015 TAP Portugal 22
28. Apr. 2017 Nile Air 2
19. Sep. 2017 Cathay Pacific 32
N/A Undisclosed customers 78

The only significant order made after the announcement is by Wizz Air, and the extra 500 nmi doesn't is just barely possible to make flights to Providence RI in the USA where NAS is flying long range B737s into the USA. But more than likely Wizz Air is simply looking for larger narrowbodies to fly within Europe.
October 24th, 2017 at 1:26:35 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 345
Posts: 12534
Quote: Pacomartin
Not everyone believes that long range narrowbodies are the wave of the future for the Middle of Market.


I was wondering how long a regular narrow body can fly. there have to be routes where even the smallest wide body provides too much capacity.

But the divide for a MoM plane between the two behemoths is wiiiiide!

Quote:
At the March 2015 International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders conference, Air Lease Corporation's Steven Udvar-Hazy predicted the 757 replacement as a more capable, clean-sheet 767-like twin-aisle airplane capable of taking off 7,000 feet runways like New York LaGuardia.


Funny you should mention this. According to the blog One Mile at a Time, an unnamed "major airline" is looking to get up to 50 or so new B-767s.

The 767 is still in production in cargo version, and there's a tanker version for the Air Force. So the production lines are there. the question is why would any airline (speculation has United in the lead) would want an outdated plane with a high operating cost per passenger-mile. One answer is that a 767 costs way less than a 787 and carries fewer passengers; so it would be a good fit for shorter routes that are too thin even for the 787-8.

What I wonder is why Boeing didn't go for a re-engined 767.
Donald Trump is a fucking liar
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