Democratic Nominee in 2020

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Poll
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10 members have voted

September 17th, 2018 at 2:42:39 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 204
Posts: 4822
I find this rather interesting, but the betting odds at 5dimes show no big favorite in for the 2020 Democratic nominee. Here are the top 11 candidates and their approximate chances of winning, based on the betting market.

Name Chances
Kamala Harris 11.8%
Joe Biden 10.3%
Bernie Sanders 10.3%
Elizabeth Warren 9.0%
Gavin Newsom 8.5%
Robert O'Rourke 7.0%
Joe Kennedy III 5.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 5.1%
Oprah Winfrey 4.8%
Thomas Sayer 4.5%
Cory Booker 4.0%


If you're wondering who Kamala Harris, she is the junior senator from California, who took over Barbara Boxer's seat. I can't say that I know anything about her at this point, except she might be the most attractive member of the Senate.



The question for the poll is who do you think will be the Democratic Nominee in 2020?
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 17th, 2018 at 2:46:48 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 15
Posts: 3269
I voted for Terapined.

(I have no idea who the nominee will be).
In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion
September 17th, 2018 at 3:17:42 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 121
Posts: 15568
Quote: Wizard
I find this rather interesting, but the betting odds at 5dimes show no big favorite in for the 2020 Democratic nominee.


What a list of ho hum duds. If that's
the best they've got, Trump is a
shoe in..
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
September 17th, 2018 at 3:19:48 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 110
Posts: 8630
A look at history shows 2004 to be the best parallel so far, except liberal hatred for Bush43 while we thought could not get worse is nothing like liberal hatred for Trump. Back then, it appeared that Howard Dean would walk away with it, then cooler heads prevailed in Iowa then the same night we had the scream. Then for the first time I ever remember we saw endorsements being retracted.

I see the debates being a contest to see who can hate Trump the most and say the most vile things about him. I also still see Hillary jumping in unless her health is as bad as it looks and she cannot handle it. On the list, Biden is the establishment choice. That means less and less. The establishment tried and failed to sink Trump. The establishment fixed the election for Hillary and Bernie still took it to the 13th round. Don't look for the establishment to do any better this time. Obama was the first to break them in 2008. They got Hillary in 2016 but by so little it shows how their power is on the wane.

I'd make a drinking game of the debates for every time you hear "racist," "sexist," "homphobe," and "protect Roe" buy I ain't bein responsible for anyone getting alcohol poisoning.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
September 17th, 2018 at 3:28:11 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 121
Posts: 15568
Quote: AZDuffman
On the list, Biden is the establishment choice. .


Biden will be 78 in 2020, and he's
an idiot. Not a chance..
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
September 17th, 2018 at 4:25:37 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 132
Posts: 6581
Quote: Wizard
I find this rather interesting, but the betting odds at 5dimes show no big favorite in for the 2020 Democratic nominee. Here are the top 11 candidates and their approximate chances of winning, based on the betting market.


If the Democrats ran a young candidate who picked an old moderate Republican for vice with no whiff of Trump-stink on
em, I might go for that.
Nobody learned anything from the global financial crisis.
September 17th, 2018 at 5:27:02 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 121
Posts: 15568
Quote: Evenbob
Biden will be 78 in 2020, and he's
an idiot. Not a chance..


Biden would be 80 in his first
2 years. Can you imagine that
bumbling moron at 80 and in
the WH? Neither can anybody
else..
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
September 17th, 2018 at 8:47:37 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 204
Posts: 4822
Quote: Evenbob
What a list of ho hum duds. If that's
the best they've got, Trump is a
shoe in..


That is largely why I just bet $1,000 on Trump to win.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 17th, 2018 at 8:51:17 PM permalink
ddloml
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1
Posts: 18
What about Michelle Obama?
September 17th, 2018 at 8:51:40 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 850
Posts: 10142
Here is some birthdays and current position. I would be surprised if someone from CA or NY gets nominated. Ordered by age
Name Chances Birthday Position
Bernie Sanders 10.3% Sep 8, 1941Senator from VT
Joe Biden 10.3% Nov 20, 1942VP under Obama
Elizabeth Warren 9.0% Jun 22, 1949Senator from MA
Oprah Winfrey 4.8% Jan 29, 1954Billionaire
Thomas Steyer 4.5% Jun 27, 1957Billionaire
Kamala Harris 11.8% Oct 20, 1964 Senator from CA since January 3, 2017
Kirsten Gillibrand 5.1% Dec 9, 1966Senator from NY, took Hillary's seat
Gavin Newsom 8.5% Oct 10, 1967LT Gov from CA candidate for Gov
Cory Booker 4.0% Apr 27, 1969Senator from NJ
Robert O'Rourke 7.0% Sep 26, 1972potential Senator, running against Ted Cruz
Joe Kennedy III 5.1% Oct 4, 1980Congressman from MA, son of Ted


% Voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016
61.73% California
60.01% Massachusetts
59.01% New York
56.68% Vermont
54.99% New Jersey

Selecting a candidate from one of these Democratic stronghold states is unlikely to help win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Everyone knows they are going to vote Democratic anyway.

In October 2017, Steyer spent around $10 million for a television ad campaign advocating the impeachment of President Donald Trump and plans to spend millions more on a digital ad campaign to call for Trump's impeachment.

In the ad Steyer identifies himself only as an "American citizen" and alleges that Trump "brought us to the brink of nuclear war, obstructed justice at the FBI and, in direct violation of the Constitution, has taken money from foreign governments and threatened to shut down news organizations that report the truth." Trump has responded by calling Steyer "wacky and totally unhinged."

Steyer's "friend' and "former neighbor" Nancy Pelosi and other powerful Democrats who claim impeachment is off the table are also at odds against Steyer.

==============================
A total of 14 Incumbents or former Presidents since 1890s have been elected vs 5 who were not. Out of the 14 incumbents, 4 became President by death. So odds seem higher with incumbency.

TRUE Grover Cleveland (won 2nd election in 1892)
TRUE William McKinley (won 2nd election in 1900)
TRUE Theodore Roosevelt (won election in 1904 as incumbent)
FALSE William Howard Taft -------------
TRUE Woodrow Wilson (won 2nd election in 1912)
DIED Warren G. Harding
TRUE Calvin Coolidge (won election in 1924 as incumbent)
FALSE Herbert Hoover -------------
TRUE Franklin D. Roosevelt
TRUE Harry S. Truman (won election in 1948 as incumbent)
TRUE Dwight D. Eisenhower (won 2nd election in 1956)
DIED John F. Kennedy
TRUE Lyndon B. Johnson (won election in 1964 as incumbent)
TRUE Richard Nixon (won 2nd election in 1972)
FALSE Gerald Ford -------------
FALSE Jimmy Carter -------------
TRUE Ronald Reagan (won 2nd election in 1984)
FALSE George H. W. Bush -------------
TRUE Bill Clinton (won 2nd election in 1996)
TRUE George W. Bush (won 2nd election in 2004)
TRUE Barack Obama (won 2nd election in 2012)
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