Democratic Nominee in 2020

Ex–Starbucks CEO may run as independent.

We are probably about due for an indie run, last one being 5 cycles ago and last serious one 6 cycles ago. It could easily be the split the Democrat Party seems headed for, traditional vs. socialist, happening.

Even though the Democrats control the House, the Republicans control 5 of the 7 "at-large" states. I assume that more than 25 states have a Republican majority, but I am not positive.

Alaska Don Young (R)
Montana Greg Gianforte (R)
North Dakota Kelly Armstrong (R)
South Dakota Dusty Johnson (R)
Wyoming Liz Cheney (R)
Delaware Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
Vermont Peter Welch (D)

Quote: AZDuffman

We are probably about due for an indie run, last one being 5 cycles ago and last serious one 6 cycles ago. It could easily be the split the Democrat Party seems headed for, traditional vs. socialist, happening.

Once again we might be faced with the possibility that a third party candidate will prevent anyone from having a majority of electoral college votes after the general election. In which case the election goes to the House with one vote per state.

Pennsylvania had a split 9-9 Congress after the election, but then a Republican congressmen quit as of next week to make some money.

Quote: Pacomartin

Even though the Democrats control the House, the Republicans control 5 of the 7 "at-large" states. I assume that more than 25 states have a Republican majority, but I am not positive.

Alaska Don Young (R)
Montana Greg Gianforte (R)
North Dakota Kelly Armstrong (R)
South Dakota Dusty Johnson (R)
Wyoming Liz Cheney (R)
Delaware Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
Vermont Peter Welch (D)



Once again we might be faced with the possibility that a third party candidate will prevent anyone from having a majority of electoral college votes after the general election. In which case the election goes to the House with one vote per state.

Pennsylvania had a split 9-9 Congress after the election, but then a Republican congressmen quit as of next week to make some money.

I do not see the EC as being an issue. Supposing he runs and has all that SBUX fortune behind him, he will be formidable. But so was Perot, who got 19%. Perot had 2 issues that dragged him down, the out then back in thing and he picked a total idiot for VP. Had he picked a serious VP he might have hit 25%. Schultz would pick a better running mate as it is impossible to pick a worse one.

Trump's base is both rock-solid and most remember that Perot gave us Clinton. ANY serious 3rd party run would pull some votes, but it is hard to see Trump losing more than the Democrat nominee.

The Democrats will nominate the furthest left candidate who gets taken half serious. Their base cares about socialism and Trump-hate, and that is what all the candidates will sell and say.

The question becomes, What position does Schultz take? He could try to outflank the Democrat on the left, he could take the center, or he could be "me too!" If he takes the center, blue-collar Democrats could look at a nominee promising government takeover of too many things and say, "I didn't sign up for this" and vote Schultz. Same as many people voted Perot to send the message that "read my lips" means something, you folded, so piss off! If he does that, Trump sweeps 40+ states.

If he is a "me-too" to the Democrat his effect is marginal, like Nader in 2000.

If he goes far-left to the Democrat then the circus really happens.

Another question would be is having a wealthy candidate who can self-finance the new normal? I think it may well be.

Quote: AZDuffman

ANY serious 3rd party run would pull some votes, but it is hard to see Trump losing more than the Democrat nominee.

I agree that it is hard to see Trump losing more than the Democrat nominee in the popular vote. But the criteria is you must get a majority of EC votes (271) to win the election outright.

A quick look at history

George Wallace results in 1968 : States carried=5, Popular vote=9,901,118 (13.5%) for 46 electoral college votes.
Hubert Humphrey results in 1968 : States carried=3+DC, Popular vote=31,271,839 (42.7%) for 191 electoral college votes.
Richard Nixon results in 1968 : States carried=32, Popular vote=31,783,783 (43.4%) for 301 electoral college votes.

Nixon beat Humphrey by less than 1% of the popular vote (slightly more than half a million votes) but had George Wallace taken more votes from Nixon leaving his total below 270, the results may have been different.

In 1968 California had 40 EC votes and Nixon won 47.82%, Humphrey 44.74%, Wallace 6.72% and others 3.08%. Had Humphrey won California in 1968 the vote would have been decided in the House (called a contingent election. Each state gets exactly one vote, regardless of population).

Although a contingent election happened only once in 1824, theoretically in recent years it was usually believed that if one happened it would go to the Republican candidate the small states are more likely to be Republican than Democratic. I am not sure if this is the case post 2018.

In the event of a contingent election , I count 26 states with a Republican majority in the delegation. So the Republican candidate would probably win.
However, contingent elections are determined by the newly-elected Congress instead of the lame duck Congress, so there is a possibility of a further shift away from Republican majority delegations.

Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

CNN’s Zeleny: Hillary Clinton Telling Friends She Has Not Closed the Door on 2020 Run

She's IN!!!!

Quote: Evenbob

CNN’s Zeleny: Hillary Clinton Telling Friends She Has Not Closed the Door on 2020 Run

She's IN!!!!

lol

You wish.

Quote: ams288

You wish.

And she'll win the nomination if she
runs, wait and see. She knows the
right wheels to grease and certainly
has the money. She scares the other
candidates to death.

Why do you think Pelosi is Speaker.
Nobody wants her there, but she
knows so many secrets, has so many
balls in her back pocket, they have
no choice. Same with Hillary.

Quote: Evenbob

Why do you think Pelosi is Speaker.
Nobody wants her there, but she
knows so many secrets, has so many
balls in her back pocket, they have
no choice. Same with Hillary.

Pelosi is speaker because she’s good at it. Just look at the shutdown, she kicked Donald’s ass.

Quote: ams288

Pelosi is speaker because she’s good at it.

The fact that you think that is proof
you have zero idea how politics works.
You think they hate Trump because
he has a fat ass and orange hair. He's
not one of THEM, they can't control
him like they did Obama and Bush,
so of course they hate his guts.

Quote: Evenbob

The fact that you think that is proof
you have zero idea how politics works.

Says the guy who said Hillary’s gonna win the nomination in 2020 just two posts above.

That’s ironic.