Electoral College Vote Predictions

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November 2nd, 2020 at 2:00:39 PM permalink
JCW09
Member since: Aug 27, 2018
Threads: 10
Posts: 813
Get you Electoral College Maps out and post your predictions.

There is a realistic path to an EC Tie, but I am now favoring a flip of only WI & MI for Biden from the Actual 2016 EC Map.
That results in Trump 280 - Biden 258, which is my final prediction for 2020
That means AZ & PA stay red along with OH, NC, GA & FL which aren't even close to going blue despite the polls.

The Presidential Race will come down to PA, Biden has already stepped on the Fracking Land Mine
Somebody somewhere said fracking might come into play back in June, can't remember who.
If Biden wins PA, he wins the Election. That was a massive misstep in the last debate.
But I know, debates don't matter. At least that is what someone somewhere said here once.

If Biden flips AZ, but not PA, that is the path to the 269-269 tie
Those pesky 2nd Districts in NE & ME would come into play
Someone somewhere scoffed at Nebraska having an impact, Omaha very well might determine the next President.
Trump wins an EC tie with my prediction of the State Delegations voting 26-24 in the House.

Senate goes 51-49 GOP as Ernst holds on and Dems flip a net of 2 seats in the Senate (AZ & ME).
I think ME is definite, AZ is a coin flip and could have us end at 52-48.
McSally is a bad politician, so I'll give it to corrupt Mark Kelley.
Senate will vote Pence is as VP under the tie EC protocol if it comes to that.

The House stays Blue, I don't even care by how much.
The House this year is like the Popular Vote every year, a nothing burger.

Can't wait for Breyer to keel over before hitting 84
Thomas will step down after 30+ years on the bench in mid 2022, because he isn't as stupid as RBG
GOP get Breyer & Thomas replaced before the mid-terms.
SCOTUS goes 7-2 by the end of 2022 with the oldest Republican Appointment being Alito at 72
"Trump's Red Wall" of Constitutional Textualists will keep the Left bound to the constraints of the Constitution until 2040, The Horror!

But I know, this is all too much Fan Fiction
We'll find out for sure by Saturday
Got to let PA count all the ballots mailed in on Wednesday and Thursday
Postmarks are for losers, but my guess is the 6-3 SCOTUS will have something to say about that :-)
Def. of Liar - "A Person Who Tells Lies" / "I lied. Deal with it" - ams288
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:05:17 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 54
Posts: 10569
Quote: JCW09
Get you Electoral College Maps out and post your predictions.


Landslide
Trump lost the House in 2018
He's doing a lot worse in 2020
Just common sense
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:21:07 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 23
Posts: 10144
Quote: JCW09
There is a realistic path to an EC Tie, but I am now favoring a flip of only MN & MI for Biden from the Actual 2016 EC Map.


Donny lost MN in 2016.
A straight man will not go for kids. - AZDuffman
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:59:29 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Dewey Beats Truman

NY World Report the pemiere political commentary magazine]sDecember 7th issue 'peace in the Pacific'

Can Putin buy theelectoral college

?
November 2nd, 2020 at 3:36:11 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1053
Posts: 12466
Quote: ams288
Donny lost MN in 2016.

That was clearly a type. He meant to type MI.

If Trump loses MI,WI, and PA and wins everything else he won in 2016, there is going to be riots for a few weeks. A total of 185 of the 538 electoral college votes was decided by a popular vote within 9%. In 2016 Trump won 136 of those tight race electoral college votes and lost 47.

- Trump, + Clinton EV 2016 State or CD
-8.1% 18 Ohio
-5.1% 16 Georgia
-3.7% 15 North Carolina
-3.5% 11 Arizona
-2.2% 1 Nebraska CD#2
-1.2% 29 Florida
-0.8% 10 Wisconsin
-0.7% 20 Pennsylvania
-0.2% 16 Michigan
0.4% 4 New Hampshire
1.5% 10 Minnesota
2.4% 6 Nevada
3.0% 2 Maine (at large)
4.9% 9 Colorado
5.3% 13 Virginia
8.2% 5 New Mexico


Quote: JCW09
If Biden flips AZ, but not PA, that is the path to the 269-269 tie
Those pesky 2nd Districts in NE & ME would come into play


Guaranteed riots!
November 2nd, 2020 at 3:51:02 PM permalink
JCW09
Member since: Aug 27, 2018
Threads: 10
Posts: 813
Yep, I meant WI & MI and fixed it.
What say you Paco on predictions?
What does your map look like if you were forced to paint every state red or blue.
Def. of Liar - "A Person Who Tells Lies" / "I lied. Deal with it" - ams288
November 2nd, 2020 at 4:23:44 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 54
Posts: 10569
I give AZ to Biden because Mark Kelly is a shoo in and will carry Biden across the line easily
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
November 2nd, 2020 at 5:05:10 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1053
Posts: 12466
Quote: JCW09
What say you Paco on predictions?
What does your map look like if you were forced to paint every state red or blue.


I think Trump is going to lose these three former "blue wall" states that he won in 2016
-0.8% 10 Wisconsin
-0.7% 20 Pennsylvania
-0.2% 16 Michigan

Trump will lose the election 278 to 260. But he is going to protest the results until the last possible day, and there will be riots.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:29:38 PM permalink
JCW09
Member since: Aug 27, 2018
Threads: 10
Posts: 813
Quote: Pacomartin
I think Trump is going to lose these three former "blue wall" states that he won in 2016
-0.8% 10 Wisconsin
-0.7% 20 Pennsylvania
-0.2% 16 Michigan

Trump will lose the election 278 to 260. But he is going to protest the results until the last possible day, and there will be riots.

There definitely will be a lawsuit if the result in PA changes based on whether the ballots received after 11/3 count as valid.
Def. of Liar - "A Person Who Tells Lies" / "I lied. Deal with it" - ams288
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:11:25 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 236
Posts: 6063
I predict 290 for Biden. Here are my state by state predictions.

State Electoral Votes Winner
Alabama 9 T
Alaska 3 T
Arizona 11 B
Arkansas 6 T
California 55 B
Colorado 9 B
Connecticut 7 B
Delaware 3 B
District of Columbia 3 B
Florida 29 T
Georgia 16 T
Hawaii 4 B
Idaho 4 T
Illinois 20 B
Indiana 11 T
Iowa 6 T
Kansas 6 T
Kentucky 8 T
Louisiana 8 T
Maine (1) 1 B
Maine (3) 3 B
Maryland 10 B
Massachusetts 11 B
Michigan 16 B
Minnesota 10 B
Mississippi 6 T
Missouri 10 T
Montana 3 T
Nebraska (1) 1 T
Nebraska (4) 4 T
Nevada 6 B
New Hampshire 4 B
New Jersey 14 B
New Mexico 5 B
New York 29 B
North Carolina 15 T
North Dakota 3 T
Ohio 18 T
Oklahoma 7 T
Oregon 7 B
Pennsylvania 20 B
Rhode Island 4 B
South Carolina 9 T
South Dakota 3 T
Tennessee 11 T
Texas 38 T
Utah 6 T
Vermont 3 B
Virginia 13 B
Washington 12 B
West Virginia 5 T
Wisconsin 10 B
Wyoming 3 T


Note that if Pennsylvania goes for Trump, Biden still wins 270 to 268. However, Arizona for Biden is a shaky prediction. Note that if my predictions are right, except PA goes for Trump and one of Maine's congressional districts goes for Trump, we would have an electoral college tie. You heard that here first. A faithless elector(s) might determine the presidency too.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
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