Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship

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September 27th, 2021 at 5:53:00 AM permalink
OnceDear
Administrator
Member since: Nov 21, 2017
Threads: 8
Posts: 1111
I watch intently as your ongoing political situation unfolds and I have a serious question for a straw poll.

How will the current debt ceiling impasse resolve?

I've watched such brinkmanship before where you had your government shutdowns under trump, but this seems to be on a whole new level of destructiveness: For the US to actually default on its debt for the first time since.... Well, never.

Uninterested in blame game, I just wonder if it will be permitted to happen. I do think it would be a calamity like nothing in living memory, but I honestly think 'this time will be different. Why no panic in the markets? Heads in the sand?

It would be happening on 'The Dems watch, under a Dem President and a Dem Congress and Senate' Your GOP is already pitching the blame at the Dems fairly successfully. Will they have this calamity for the world happen just to stick it to the Dems? I suspect they will. Will the GOP then seize more power as a result?

Bonus question.... And what will that destruction of the Dollar do for my Bitcoin?


"Moody Analytics released a report that stated that, if Congress fails to increase the debt limit and ultimately defaulted on its debt, "This economic scenario is cataclysmic ... The downturn would be comparable to that suffered during the financial crisis" of 2008."
September 27th, 2021 at 6:15:45 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15604
Usually what happens is things "shut down" for a few days or weeks. Which is a joke as it is just some extra PTO for most government employees. Obama made a show having whatever cops it was block off things at exactly midnight. Yeah, we have no money to run things but we have money to do that. They even coned off the little pullout to view Mt. Rushmore. For that we are talking the side of the road, like nothing to maintain. It was all for political show.

But for the first time it is all on one party! Ever have a teacher shut a kid up by bringing them to the front of the class, handing them a piece of chalk, and saying, "you teach the class?" That was a thing in my day, brought one girl to tears. Anyhow, this is what the GOP is sort of doing. Democrats have been saying how they are in charge so the GOP is giving a big "FINE!"

In all previous shutdowns the Democrats relied on the lamestream media to blame the GOP for them when it was usually their fault. The press will probably still try it but the GOP is wisely saying, "Ask them, they have the majorities!"

My prediction is the Democrats will let it happen for a few hours to a few days. Remember also in the past it was usually a Democrat POTUS with a high approval or a GOP POTUS with not so high. This time the Democrat POTUS is both weak and unpopular. IOW, they cannot count on winning the blame game.

Markets will fall, use the opportunity to buy in. There will be no default even if they call the guys from Enron from Club Fed to help them play some financial games. For example, they could pay most bonds but send an IOU to FED and FICA held bonds.

Bitcoin should rise in dollar terms. A USD collapse would rocket BTC in dollar terms but maybe not Euros and other currencies though.
The President is a fink.
September 27th, 2021 at 6:25:40 AM permalink
OnceDear
Administrator
Member since: Nov 21, 2017
Threads: 8
Posts: 1111
Quote: AZDuffman
Usually what happens is things "shut down" for a few days or weeks. Which is a joke as it is just some extra PTO for most government employees. Obama made a show having whatever cops it was block off things at exactly midnight. Yeah, we have no money to run things but we have money to do that. They even coned off the little pullout to view Mt. Rushmore. For that we are talking the side of the road, like nothing to maintain. It was all for political show.

Markets will fall, use the opportunity to buy in. There will be no default even if they call the guys from Enron from Club Fed to help them play some financial games. For example, they could pay most bonds but send an IOU to FED and FICA held bonds.

Bitcoin should rise in dollar terms. A USD collapse would rocket BTC in dollar terms but maybe not Euros and other currencies though.
Thanks AZD, While I do not comment on your assignment of blame, I see that there are enough Americans making the same interpretation, that this really will come to pass. I also see it as far FAR more than a few things shutting down for a few weeks.

Shutdown. Is what is laughingly expected and nobody really seems to care. Default is the elephant in the room hiding in plain sight.

I don't see Biden or the Dems or even MSM being up to the task ahead of them.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:14:34 AM permalink
gamerfreak
Member since: Feb 19, 2018
Threads: 3
Posts: 438
Quote: OnceDear
Thanks AZD, While I do not comment on your assignment of blame, I see that there are enough Americans making the same interpretation, that this really will come to pass. I also see it as far FAR more than a few things shutting down for a few weeks.

Shutdown. Is what is laughingly expected and nobody really seems to care. Default is the elephant in the room hiding in plain sight.

I don't see Biden or the Dems or even MSM being up to the task ahead of them.

This happens every few years. Not an actual default, but a Fed shutdown and the threat of default. It never happens.

Why do you think this time is some sort of financial doomsday?
September 27th, 2021 at 7:16:37 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15604
Quote: OnceDear
Thanks AZD, While I do not comment on your assignment of blame, I see that there are enough Americans making the same interpretation, that this really will come to pass. I also see it as far FAR more than a few things shutting down for a few weeks.

Shutdown. Is what is laughingly expected and nobody really seems to care. Default is the elephant in the room hiding in plain sight.

I don't see Biden or the Dems or even MSM being up to the task ahead of them.


Biden is out of it enough that he might not grasp what a default would be.

AOC and The Squad are not intelligent enough to grasp it. AOC if she is serious when she talks does not grasp where money even comes from.

Calmer heads may prevail, but I am really at the point where I think a default might be a better thing long term. Like the trophy girlfriend getting her credit card taken away by the man who is tired of her reckless spending and awful attitude. Problem is the problems in the USA are so structural that they cannot be solved without massive, massive pain.

A default is a huge thing. A shutdown is just the Democrats having a hissy fit at this point.
The President is a fink.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:32:32 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 154
Posts: 12942
Quote: OnceDear
Thanks AZD, While I do not comment on your assignment of blame,


Good thing, because only Republicans in the Senate have threatened to vote against raising the debt ceiling.
In the beginning, God created a video game we call The Universe
September 27th, 2021 at 11:37:16 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 20
Posts: 3048
Quote: rxwine
Good thing, because only Republicans in the Senate have threatened to vote against raising the debt ceiling.


Then the Democrats have enough votes and can use Harris to break the tie. So explain how it can be the Republicans blocking this raise without at least one Democrat Senator going along? IF this needs to pass the filibuster (I have not heard that once in all the news coverage) then it should be real easy to blame the Republicans. What am I missing here?
September 27th, 2021 at 11:41:38 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 154
Posts: 12942
Quote: SOOPOO
Then the Democrats have enough votes and can use Harris to break the tie. So explain how it can be the Republicans blocking this raise without at least one Democrat Senator going along? IF this needs to pass the filibuster (I have not heard that once in all the news coverage) then it should be real easy to blame the Republicans. What am I missing here?


It needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate.
In the beginning, God created a video game we call The Universe
September 27th, 2021 at 11:57:40 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15604
Quote: rxwine
It needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate.


I have not heard about the filibuster being used on it at all.

I still do not get if the Democrats hate the filibuster so much why did they not get rid of it before the most recent election?
The President is a fink.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:44:14 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 19
Posts: 8553
Quote: AZDuffman
I have not heard about the filibuster being used on it at all.


LOL

Start paying attention then.
A straight man will not go for kids. - AZDuffman
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