Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship

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September 28th, 2021 at 7:37:08 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15887
Quote: rxwine
Sure do when you didn't cut costs first.


Nope. Tax cuts are not spending. And like Wal-Mart, you get more tax revenue when rates are lower.
The President is a fink.
September 28th, 2021 at 7:55:02 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 155
Posts: 13353
Quote: AZDuffman
Nope. Tax cuts are not spending. And like Wal-Mart, you get more tax revenue when rates are lower.


I know the difference between a tax cut that is paid for and an investment strategy. You don't.
The Trumpie Pledge: Loyalty first, America and principles second.
September 28th, 2021 at 8:26:59 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15887
Quote: rxwine
I know the difference between a tax cut that is paid for and an investment strategy. You don't.


Tax cuts do not need to be "paid for." Spending does. You think that the money belongs to the government and they allow you to keep some. I do not.
The President is a fink.
September 28th, 2021 at 9:09:15 AM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 155
Posts: 13353
Quote: AZDuffman
Tax cuts do not need to be "paid for." Spending does. You think that the money belongs to the government and they allow you to keep some. I do not.


If tax cuts don’t need to be paid for, just refund 100%.
The Trumpie Pledge: Loyalty first, America and principles second.
September 28th, 2021 at 8:32:28 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 230
Posts: 5956
Quote: OnceDear
Thats what I was asking. I have my own opinions


It is political theater. Both sides will agree on essential funding, such as honoring Social Security payments and loan payments. It is only non-essential things that get cut like museums and national parks. Eventually they will break the impasse and agree on increasing the national debt, yet again.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
September 29th, 2021 at 1:14:07 AM permalink
Tanko
Member since: Aug 15, 2019
Threads: 0
Posts: 951
Quote: OnceDear
Why no panic in the markets? Heads in the sand?

Bonus question.... And what will that destruction of the Dollar do for my Bitcoin?


The US has had 20 government shutdowns since 1976.

The worst S&P loss during a shutdown was 4% in 1977.

S&P Performance During Past Four Government Shutdowns

1995 5 days +1.31%
1995 21 days +0,6%
2013 16 days +3.07%
2018 34 days +10.37%

“Bitcoin is a limited supply of nothing” - John Paulson

The dollar has been gaining strength relative to major foreign currencies, since the start of the year.

Bitcoin falls when the dollar increases in value relative to major foreign currencies.
September 29th, 2021 at 1:54:41 AM permalink
OnceDear
Administrator
Member since: Nov 21, 2017
Threads: 8
Posts: 1163
Quote: Tanko
The US has had 20 government shutdowns since 1976.

The worst S&P loss during a shutdown was 4% in 1977..
Like many of you, I shrug and say 'whateva' about the impending shutdown. I get it. It's theatre.

But that is not the issue that concerns me. Just a couple of weeks after that, or INTO THAT, we face THE DEBT CEILING issue. That's not about shutdown, that's about default on government bonds. The mere threat of that in 2008 contributed to disaster. But now the threat seems real. If Default comes to pass, it will make 2008 look trivial. It will be default for THE FIRST time ever.
And I really do think Mitch and his team will cause default just to kick Biden while he's (shut) down.
Then the populace will see the US in tumoil with the Dems at the helm and .... How will that unfold. Hope, I'm wrong.
September 29th, 2021 at 2:47:48 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15887
Quote: OnceDear

And I really do think Mitch and his team will cause default just to kick Biden while he's (shut) down.


He can't, Dems run it all. See, the Democrats are afraid of looking like the big reckless spenders they are so do not want to go it alone. Mitch is just making them do so.

The Squad may shut it down because they are not getting the socialist conversion they want.
The President is a fink.
September 29th, 2021 at 10:33:22 AM permalink
JCW09
Member since: Aug 27, 2018
Threads: 5
Posts: 526
Quote: OnceDear
But that is not the issue that concerns me. Just a couple of weeks after that, or INTO THAT, we face THE DEBT CEILING issue. That's not about shutdown, that's about default on government bonds. The mere threat of that in 2008 contributed to disaster. But now the threat seems real. If Default comes to pass, it will make 2008 look trivial. It will be default for THE FIRST time ever.
And I really do think Mitch and his team will cause default just to kick Biden while he's (shut) down.
Then the populace will see the US in tumoil with the Dems at the helm and .... How will that unfold. Hope, I'm wrong.

Do you believe the Dems will let that happen on their watch?
Despite what AMS/Rx have been spouting, the Dems can raise the debt ceiling without a single GOP vote.
The Filibuster rules do not stop them from doing this & are irrelevant.

The debt ceiling was raised in a similar manner by the GOP in 2003.
The GOP passed the partisan 2003 Bush Tax Cuts bill in the Senate by a 50:50 vote with VP casting deciding vote.
Then immediately turned to the debt ceiling to fund the bill and raised the debt ceiling without Dem support.
They did it because they knew the Tax Cuts were popular and they could defend their votes/bill come 2004 & Bush got re-elected.

Dems need to grow a pair, see if they can get their $3.5T Bill passed and then raise the debt ceiling. But they have to own it all.
The GOP wants the Dems to have to defend their partisan bill and its inflationary repercussions come 2022 & 2024.
GOP will get onboard to pass a debt ceiling increase if it is limited to currently committed spending & the Infrastructure Bill.
But Dems want it increased beyond that to fund their $3.5T "We F'd America Better" plan as well. That's a no go for the GOP.

So all this Shut Down/Debt Ceiling hand wringing is all much ado about nothing. Ongoing funding gets passed today.
The Debt Ceiling will get passed by the Dems alone if they get any of their "We F'd America Better" plan voted on by 50 Senators.
Except the Dems don't have the votes for Socialism & Nancy can't hold up the Infrastructure Bill passed Thursday's scheduled vote.
So get your popcorn out, should be an interesting finish to the week in Washington.

My prediction:
1) Ongoing funding resolution passed today.
2) Infrastructure bill passed on Thursday
3) AOC cries in public for a second week in a row.
4) The "We F'd America Better" Plan is tabled until 2022
5) Nancy & Chuck can claim victory in getting the Infrastructure Plan passed as Trump & Cocaine Mitch couldn't get it done.
6) The House Plant realizes out a good thing happened when he next reads from a teleprompter.
"Hopefully (TRUMP) apologized for the cops he got injured & KILLED on 1/6" - An AMS LIE (CAPS mine)
September 29th, 2021 at 5:41:22 PM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 21
Posts: 3156
Quote: ams288
Honestly, if the result of Mitch’s debt ceiling antics (denying cloture aka requiring 60 votes) is forcing the Dems to nuke the filibuster: bring it on!!


Except you don’t have FIFTY votes to nuke the filibuster. Manchin and 50 Repubs vote no. Probably a few more Dem Senators also vote no.
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