In the News II

PACW biting the dust after market.

Exploring options.

Quote: DoubleGold

PACW biting the dust after market.

Exploring options.

The option is, Stay away from Bank Stocks.

'Short Sellers Cratered Silvergate Bank and First Republic; They’re Now Targeting PacWest and Numerous Other Regional Banks'

Senator Cruz brutally ripping Mayorkas a new one.

Beginning May 11th, it goes into hyperdrive.

Quote: Tanko

The option is, Stay away from Bank Stocks.

'Short Sellers Cratered Silvergate Bank and First Republic; They’re Now Targeting PacWest and Numerous Other Regional Banks'

When I wrote "Exploring options.", that was the gist of what the bank stated before tumbling down 59% after-market.

Sellers took that to mean they were in trouble.


I added a few others on my watch list.


That website is a good source for info.


Showing the M2 YOY% rate of change chart again with no bottom in sight (free-falling).

The absolute value M2 chart looks much different but is rolling over at super-high levels.

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https://imgur.com/23DYTky

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Quote: Tanko

Senator Cruz brutally ripping Mayorkas a new one.

Beginning May 11th, it goes into hyperdrive.

I read, folks from all over the world intend to fly to the border to enter.

Quote: Tanko

The option is, Stay away from Bank Stocks.

'Short Sellers Cratered Silvergate Bank and First Republic; They’re Now Targeting PacWest and Numerous Other Regional Banks'

I actually like some of the major banks now.

Quote: rquiredusername

Virtually all housing built in the last 30 years has been built for people who are going to be dead in 30 years and not based on and doesn’t really match current, or even remotely related to future need. To an extent this was true in the past but drastic changes in affordability and modern family structure being much different than previous generations means the building has been entirely incongruent to current or future demand for quite some time.

What I mean is that people pretty much don’t have kids anymore or much fewer, but you can barely find a house under 2000 feet built since 2000, and you’re not going to be allowed to have one that size built in SFH HOA land. Way too much area in metro/suburban areas is zoned residential, and far too restrictive (HOA size requirements) to have any resemblance to our population needs/demands.

Immediate postwar housing was simple and affordable even if the quality was not there. By the 1960s some silly trends started happening. A "living room" the family rarely used as the family room was now the "game room." The living room was for hosting company. A front yard that was unused for anything but show and mowing. Rooms started getting bigger along with the whole home.

Then in the late-1980s this became the "Mcmansion." Too much house for too little lot and trying to cram every little styling feature. But even how regal they looked their quality was low, not quite as low as Levittown but not what real custom-build actual mansions would have.

Family size halved at the same time housing size doubled. Townships stopped letting people build rational size homes and started saying "2400 square feet minimum!" After decades of this we have a situation where people cannot find an affordable, smaller place. The neighborhoods with these kinds of places often gentrify, making the smaller places no longer "affordable."

We are so distorted IMHO it will take 50-100 years to straighten it all out.

Update on LLY target for a bearish swing.

They just had very positive news in regards to an alzheimers and weight loss drugs (blockbusters).


The price to enter bearishly would be around $498 (yellow line at the top).

Can play downward from there with less risk, to the descending lower white ellipse line for a back-test.

It'd be about a 20% gain non-levered in about 6-9 months time or so.


Image below can be clicked on to maximize image.


Quarterly log chart of LLY going back to 1974:

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https://imgur.com/EFaOciq

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Paramount getting crushed pre-market after numbers came out.

Cutting dividend.


I use Netflix, Amazon, & Apple for streaming movies.

I had Paramount but canceled it.

I use You-Tube, but suffer through the commercials.



By the way, Apple has $1B in savings deposits for persons.

Very unusual.

Quote: DoubleGold

Showing the M2 YOY% rate of change chart again with no bottom in sight (free-falling).

Sound monetary policy from the Fed.

The money supply has only declined 2.9% since July 2022. It increased at fourteen times that rate during the pandemic. The Fed has to reduce it in order to bring down inflation.