wwii alternate posib

Quote: Story of Athenia

The Athenia departed Glasgow for Montreal on 1 September 1939 (the day UK declared war on Germany), carrying 1,103 passengers, mostly Canadians, and including more than 300 Americans. She was sighted by the German submarine U-30. The captiain later claimed that the fact that she was a darkened ship steering a zigzag course which seemed to be well off the normal shipping routes made him believe she was either a troopship or a Q-ship or an armed merchant cruiser. He ordered two torpedoes to be fired. The first struck home and exploded, while the second misfired. Rescue efforts were immediate and only 112 people died, but nearly all of them were women and children.

Herbert Hoover said, "It is such poor tactics that I cannot believe that even the clumsy Germans would do such a thing", while North Carolina senator Robert Rice Reynolds denied that Germany had any motive to sink the Athenia. At best, he said, such an action "could only further inflame the world, and particularly America, against Germany, with no appreciable profits from the sinking." He added that Britain could have had a motive - "to infuriate the American people".

So American lives were lost from the beginning of WWII (such as the Athenia), Paris was invaded, and the London Blitz ended 200 days before Pearl Harbor. Italy signed a non-agression pact with Germany, and Spain's Franco was a longstanding ally. None of these actions persuaded America to go to War.

If Pearl Harbor (or another attack on an American territory) had not happened, would the USA have ever entered into the European War?

Not on the scale we did. We would have sent
air support to EU, but there was no rally for
in the country for ground troops before PH.
Too many people had WWI still in their minds,
the War to End All Wars. Hitler would have
taken part of EU and eventually, in the 50's,
the USSR would have taken Hitler. And EU.

Germany would have gotten the bomb first,
USSR second, us last. Would have been a different
world.

No, that is why FDR and all his Harvard trained associates wanted something BIG to happen, because a few Americans dying on some unknown gunboat in some far off port would mean nothing.

The President ordered the Fleet to sail to Pear Harbor even though it was a hardship post since the sailors were without barracks. The Admiral then in command of Hawaii protested saying it was a provocative act towards Japan and put the fleet at risk of a surprise attack. FDR promptly relieved that Admiral of command and replaced him with the oldest Admiral in the Navy.
Japan had been fighting in Manchuria for a long time and need war supplies, the Harvard trained types made sure the scrap metal embargo went through and was promptly implemented. Making war a certainty.

Despite all this guff about Peach in the Pacific (US News and World Report.. dated Dec 7th) everyone knew there would be war and, as FDR wanted, the Japs would make the first move and it would be MAJOR, not some gunboat incident with a few casualties. Looking at a map of the Pacific and following the movements of the Japanese merchant ships in the ordinary Shipping Notices it was clear that all Japanese Merchant Ships were marching across the Pacific towards the safety of the Home Waters and that it was clear the decision date was going to be December 8th, which is the date in Tokyo time that the attack took place.

Note as to torpedoing ships without warning it was the BRITISH that caused this. Under the rules of war, Germany was perfectly willing to have their submarines surface when approaching a merchant ship and stop the vessel to inspect its papers and cargo. It was the British who would not allow this and ordered their ships to immediately broadcast SSS if stopped by a submarine and RRR if stopped by a commerce raider. Since this allowed a prompt response by the Royal Navy, the German submarines had to fire torpedoes without being sure of their targets. It was the British use of Q-ships (Heavily armed merchant ships crewed entirely by the Royal Navy) that also forced German submarines to engage in unrestricted warfare. The German submarines would surfact and approach a merchant ship to inspect papers and cargo and sink it if it was a British ship or contained munitions then suddenly the various deck cargo and structures would collapse and machine guns would open fire on the submarine.

It was like the Lusitania in WWOne... the British were providing escorts for ships carrying donkeys but withdrew the escort for the Lusitania when they discovered a German submarine was in the area. So the German submarine attacked the Lusitania and Woodrow Wilson had his "incident" that both the British and Americans wanted.

Quote: Fleastiff

... not some gunboat incident with a few casualties.

I checked the records, and could find less than 2 dozen American ships sunk before Pearl Harbor. They were mostly freighters, and total deaths were fewer than 200. The "SS Athenia" was the most provocative attack that I could find, and it was a British ship that happened to be carrying many Americans and Canadians (and multiple women and children).

The Blitz ended on 21 May 1941 (nearly 200 days before Pearl Harbor) as Germany turned it's attention to Russia. Had "Operation Sea Lion" (the invasion of Britain) been carried out, it is not clear to me if America would have entered the war.

Wikipedia says that in 2009 40 million American identify as British-Americans, while 51 million identify as German-Americans. I am sure the ratio was not much different in 1939.

But leaving 1941 isolation policies and back to the present:

US secretary of state John Kerry says Moscow is behaving in a '19th century' fashion by invading another country on a completely 'trumped-up' pretext. I bet that comment has Putin shaking in his boots.

Some people are calling for The United States to institute economic retribution against Russia, including sanctions and expelling it from the G8.

Are we really going to take such drastic action over the Crimean peninsula? I could understand it if the Russian tanks invade Kiev, (Ukrainians constitute the largest ethnic group in Kiev, 82.2% of the population), but Crimean peninsula is mostly Russian ( 58% Russians, 24% Ukrainians, 12 Crimean Tatars).

I was referring to gunboats... I think it was the Panay that had American casualties when strafed by Japanese planes.

The US was already in the war. The President had ordered the Coast Guard to be transferred from the Treasury Department to the US Navy so as to use USCG destroyers for convoy escort duties hundreds of miles out to sea. Federal courthouses and post office boxes were sandbagged and had soldiers with fixed bayonets and light machine guns in public view. We openly tolerated England insisting that we enforce the Neutrality Act on goods bound for Germany but turn a blind eye on goods bound for the UK. American males were already crossing into Canada with their thumbs up and the US permitted posters and ads saying "Thumbs Up for Canada". Ivy League fraternities were already busy flying planes in New England onto roads, getting out and pushing the plane into Canada so as not to violate the Neutrality Act by flying the plane into Canada.

Operation Sea Lion had its own D=day but a sudden code change and a massive increase in British radio traffic made Germany think the Sea Lion invasion information had been compromised. The UK was defenseless after Dunkirk since only troops, not tanks, trucks or even rifles had been rescued. The "Home Guard" consisted of old men most of whom lacked any weapons. Church bells had been silenced and were to be rung only upon sighting large numbers of parachutists. The Boy Scouts had gone throughout the country happily tearing down highway signs that might guide invading troops. All business with village names had them blacked out on signs and windows. England knew it could not repel an invasion. During the war the UK was generally five weeks from widespread hunger.

As for today, Russia has wanted warm water ports for quite some time. Murmansk and Arkangel just don't cut it.
Once the decision to invade is made, no one cares if the excuse is valid or not. When Hitler annexed the Sudaten land, he rode around in an open car without guards as a demonstration of what the people actually welcomed, but that doesn't mean that had he been jeered and stoned, he would have returned it.

Go to war over the Crimea? Most Americans had not heard of Hickam Field or Pearl Harbor until the attack. Crimea? Florence Nightengale, the Charge of the Light Brigade, UK treason charges for reporters. Other than that no one had heard of the Crimea.

Quote: Fleastiff

I was referring to gunboats... I think it was the Panay that had American casualties when strafed by Japanese planes.

It was 1937 and 3 were killed and 45 injured out of 69 onboard. The Japanese apologized, and paid an indemnity, but most Americans naturally considered it a deliberate act.

Some of my relatives are Syrian, and they always talk about the USS Liberty incident (8 June 1967) , during the Six-Day War. The combined air and sea attack by Israel killed 34 crew members (naval officers, seamen, two Marines, and one civilian), wounded 171 crew members, and severely damaged the ship. The US accepted Israel's apology, but many Arab Americans believe the attack was deliberate.

Quote: Pacomartin

If Pearl Harbor (or another attack on an American territory) had not happened, would the USA have ever entered into the European War?

Actually, Pearl Harbor did not get us into the European Theatre. FDR did not call for a declaration of war there, it was Hitler who declared war on the USA. (trivia note: this was the only time he declared war on another country.) Strangely enough that was the only declared war to get a unanimous vote in Congress. Even after Pearl Harbor a liberal SF Congressperson voted "no."

Why Hitler did this is kind of a mystery. A more astute military leader would have given the Japanese western USSR and crushed them from both sides.

My answer is it would have taken an attack to get the USA involved. On Dec 6, 1941 the public was still divided on getting in the war.

Quote: AZDuffman

it was Hitler who declared war on the USA.

Even after Pearl Harbor a liberal SF Congressperson voted "no."

"At 3:30 p.m. (Berlin time) on December 11, the German charge d'affaires in Washington handed American Secretary of State Cordell Hull a copy of the declaration of war."

I don't know why I didn't know that. I understand that he has an alliance to declare war if Japan were attacked, but he was not even informed that Japan intended to be the aggressor.

I did know about Jeanette Rankin, as she also voted against WWI. She was also the first woman ever elected to congress.


Patton landed in North Africa on November 8, 1942. I wonder how many American casualties there were between 2 Dec 1941 and 8 Nov, 1942?

Quote: Pacomartin

"At 3:30 p.m. (Berlin time) on December 11, the German charge d'affaires in Washington handed American Secretary of State Cordell Hull a copy of the declaration of war."

Can you imagine having to do this, then know you have to somehow leave the country? I mean, if both sides have a Foreign Service staff you have some assurance they want to get their own people back, but you really do not know. One other thing I always wondered was how fast they cut the telephone lines, either us or them?

Quote:

I don't know why I didn't know that. I understand that he has an alliance to declare war if Japan were attacked, but he was not even informed that Japan intended to be the aggressor.

I always heard Hitler had no binding agreement if Japan attacked and a minimal one if they were attacked. The Axis was not like NATO and there was minimal direct co-operation between the powers on that side. If it were not for WWI (forget for a momeny WWI set up WWII) and the USA and Brits were not such close allies then Hitler would have been better to declare war on Japan perhaps? Think of it, USA still officially neutral; our being allies with the Brits really only went to about 1870. If we were not half-in via Lend-Lease and other support then to declare war on someone who just declared war on your enemy would be a touch impolitic.

Just another "what if" from AZD. One day maybe I will post my idea of what would have happened had the South won in 1865. I have given some hints already, the more I think of that one the more I think they would today be speaking German in Paris.

Quote: AZDuffman

I think they would today be speaking German in Paris.

With Cologne to Paris only 3:15 by train, and London to Paris down to 2:15 by train, I wonder what is the most common language? Do Germans try to speak in French, or do they just muddle by in German, and hope they are understood.

I know when I was in Paris, my companion told me that it was rude not to speak French. I just shut up and let her talk.