wwii alternate posib

Quote: Pacomartin

With Cologne to Paris only 3:15 by train, and London to Paris down to 2:15 by train, I wonder what is the most common language? Do Germans try to speak in French, or do they just muddle by in German, and hope they are understood.

I think most people in Europe are multi-lingual to one extent or another. I have heard French try hard to keep other languages from encroaching.

I always thought Hitler declared war on the US as he thought it would enable him to isolate the UK from the US in the Atlantic, and show support to his Japanase allies. I didn't think he realized the net effect of his declaration, but I don't think Hitler realized the net effect of much of his foreign policy decisions.

Without reviewing, I would have expected the US to enter the war at some point in the 6-12 months after Pearl Harbour anyway. Hitler's declaration was a gift, and allowed the allies to run a Europe first strategy. If he hadn't, I'm not sure how well a Pacific first strategy would have gone. Japan had also wrongly guessed the US's ability to respond, and thought they'd be able to seal of the eastern edges of the empire.

Quote: Pacomartin

I wonder what is the most common language? Do Germans try to speak in French, or do they just muddle by in German, and hope they are understood.

Flemish.

Just kidding, the Belgians don't speak any known language.

I had no difficulty in The Netherlands getting around with English only. My friends tell me that English is spoken in all the big cities in Yurp.

Quote: TheCesspit

I always thought Hitler declared war on the US as he thought it would enable him to isolate the UK from the US in the Atlantic, and show support to his Japanase allies.

As I understand it, he assumed that Japan would neutralize American military power quickly, and that a grateful Japan would open up a front against Russia to help him defeat that country.

Quote: TheCesspit

I didn't think he realized the net effect of his declaration, but I don't think Hitler realized the net effect of much of his foreign policy decisions.

I think that is a vast understatement. If he had just concentrated on France, Benelux, and UK we might have a different Europe today (or not).

Quote: TheCesspit

Without reviewing, I would have expected the US to enter the war at some point in the 6-12 months after Pearl Harbour anyway. Hitler's declaration was a gift, and allowed the allies to run a Europe first strategy. If he hadn't, I'm not sure how well a Pacific first strategy would have gone.

USA action for at least 10-11 months was entirely in the Pacific. After that Patton would aid in the invasion of North Africa

1941
• December Japanese warplanes attack the Philippines and two U.S. islands: Wake and Guam, which are later occupied.
  
  1942
• January Manila, Philippines, falls to Japanese troops.
  
• February In the Battle of the Java Sea, Japan defeats an Allied strike force, putting Japan in control of the Netherlands Indies.
  
  April
• First U.S. troops arrive in Australia.
  
• On the Bataan Peninsula of the Philippines, U.S. and Filipino troops, low on food and ammunition, surrender. Japanese troops force about 76,000 prisoners to march to distant camps; at least 5,200 Americans die on the march.
  
• Sixteen U.S. bombers, led by Lt. Col. James Doolittle, take off from an aircraft carrier 800 miles (1300 kilometers) off Tokyo and make the first bombing raid against Japan.
  
• The U.S. government forces thousands of Japanese-Americans to move from the U.S. West Coast to “relocation” camps in isolated areas.
  
• In the battle of the Coral Sea, U.S. warships turn back a Japanese invasion force heading for New Guinea.
  
  June
  
• U.S. carrier-based aircraft, alerted to Japanese moves by code breakers, stop a Japanese invasion of Midway, a U.S. base that guards Hawaii. U.S. dive-bombers sink four Japanese carriers; one U.S. carrier is lost. The Battle of Midway is the turning point of the Pacific War.
  
• Japanese troops land on Attu and Kiska in the Aleutian Islands.
  
  August
  
• U.S. Marines land on Japanese-held Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands. This is the first battle in a U.S. “island hopping” campaign that will keep moving U.S. forces closer to Japan.
  
  September
• An aircraft launched from a Japanese submarine drops fire bombs on forests near Brookings, Oregon, in the first bombing of the continental United States.
  
  November
• Patton U.S. and British troops invade French North Africa and will later link up with the British Eighth Army.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think that is a vast understatement. If he had just concentrated on France, Benelux, and UK we might have a different Europe today (or not).

Indeed, it is, you are right. I was just thinking about his diplomacy rather than just his military actions as well! Barbarossa was a huge mistake. BUT, Hitler wouldn't have been Hitler without Barbarossa. Lebensraum was the whole point of Germany's aggression. Shut the back door and head east.

He compounded the mistakes with Stalingrad and later on Kursk. The German army was highly effective and well trained, which let it win battles and campaigns against armies that were badly led, badly trained and badly equipped. This led Hitler to believe his own press, and suggest all sorts of missions and strategies which were fateful. Yes, he should have stopped somewhere along the Dneipr and tried to take Moscow a second time. The Germans should never have attacked at Kursk. At that point in the war, holding the front and putting the Russians into a meat grinder may have held them off with a slow orderly retreat. Of course, Hitler would never have agreed to it. But by the end of the war, the Russia army was running out of warm bodies to put into the field. Without wasting resources on no retreat and futile attacks, the Germans might have run Russia to a standstill somewhere in the Ukraine. A few months with less US lend lease material, and Operation Uranus and Saturn would have been much harder as well.

He made similar mistakes with the defence in Normandy as well. And in Italy. But soil was the objective, the German's were superior in his mind, so he made these decisions. And lost a war.

1941
December Japanese warplanes attack the Philippines catching MacArthur unaware despite reports of Pearl Harbor which he discounted as "minor" and two U.S. islands: Wake, [which contained civilian workers who had been guaranteed removal if hostilities broke out. Note: The US was actually winning the battle of Wake Island but the commander thought that as he lost contact with remote outposts they had been over-run rather than just phone lines had been cut. and Guam, which are later occupied.

1942
January Manila, Philippines, falls to Japanese troops. Because MacArthur took troops and ammunition with him, but no food.
February In the Battle of the Java Sea, Japan defeats an Allied strike force, putting Japan in control of the Netherlands Indies.
Giving Japan access to oil. Japan had planned on two years to put out the oil feed fires, but the US and British never set fire to the oil wells.

April
First U.S. troops arrive in Australia. US plans were already made: if Japan invades: Scorched Earth.
On the Bataan Peninsula of the Philippines, U.S. and Filipino troops, low on food and ammunition, surrender. Japanese troops force about 76,000 prisoners to march to distant camps; at least 5,200 Americans die on the march.
Sixteen U.S. bombers, led by Lt. Col. James Doolittle, take off from an aircraft carrier 800 miles (1300 kilometers) off Tokyo and make the first bombing raid against Japan. A token raid but full bombing could have been made from Alaskan glaciers but senior officers never realized that you could taxi a plane off a glacier and it would fall but would still start flying before it hit the ground.
The U.S. government forces thousands of Japanese-Americans to move from the U.S. West Coast to “relocation” camps in isolated areas.And U. S. Courts approve despite lack of any showing of danger. Some forced relocations included the blonde haired blue eyed adopted daughter of a Japanese couple and many parents of soldiers in California and Hawaii militery units.
In the battle of the Coral Sea, U.S. warships turn back a Japanese invasion force heading for New Guinea.
Much heralded Marianas Turkey Shoot film showed 11 percent of the pilots scored over 90 percent of the kills, eventually leading to the Top Gun concept.

June
U.S. carrier-based aircraft, alerted to Japanese moves by code breakers, stop a Japanese invasion of Midway, a U.S. base that guards Hawaii. U.S. dive-bombers sink four Japanese carriers; one U.S. carrier is lost. The Battle of Midway is the turning point of the Pacific War. Yes, but despite knowing in advance the target was Midway, the USA darn near lost the battle.
Japanese troops land on Attu and Kiska in the Aleutian Islands.

August
U.S. Marines land on Japanese-held Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands. This is the first battle in a U.S. “island hopping” campaign that will keep moving U.S. forces closer to Japan.

September
An aircraft launched from a Japanese submarine drops fire bombs on forests near Brookings, Oregon, in the first bombing of the continental United States.

November
Patton U.S. and British troops invade French North Africa and will later link up with the British Eighth Army.
US troops sent to North Africa with intent to have those who do well to come back and be instructors.

Quote: TheCesspit

Indeed, it is, you are right. I was just thinking about his diplomacy rather than just his military actions as well! Barbarossa was a huge mistake. BUT, Hitler wouldn't have been Hitler without Barbarossa. Lebensraum was the whole point of Germany's aggression. Shut the back door and head east.

In and of itself it was not a huge mistake. The mistakes that killed it were splitting into three smaller missions, alienating the Ukranians. and underestimating the Russian winter.

Had Hitler not wanted to take Stalingrad because of the name and instead focused those troops on Moscow he probably would have taken it. Had he taken it he could have wintered over then went north to Petrograd (nee St Petersburg.) At that point the USSR would have been effectively finished.

When the Germans took the Ukraine they were greeted as liberators. Until they took all the grain and let the people to starve. A benevolent occupation would have freed up troops for the Moscow push. After it was over he could have then forced the population onto "Russian Reservations" modeled on Indian Reservations in the USA as was his plan.

The Russian winter is obvious.

Quote: Fleastiff

1941
December Japanese warplanes attack the Philippines catching MacArthur unaware despite reports of Pearl Harbor which he discounted as "minor" and two U.S. islands: Wake, ...

You seem to know your stuff. Perhaps you can answer a question for me.

I have seen these summary figures:
US military deaths 416,800 (includes Merchant Marine (9,500) and Coast Guard (1,900))
US civilian deaths due to military activity 1,700

The breakout by service is as follows:
Army 318,274,
Navy 62,614,
Marine Corps 24,511,
United States Coast Guard 1,917,
United States Merchant Marine 9,521.
Civilian dead were 1,704 American civilians interned: 1,536 by the Japanese, and 168 by Germany.

Have you ever seen a breakdown of these numbers by Europe/Pacific theater? I am finding that surprisingly difficult to find.

Quote: TheCesspit

Depends on the 'how' they win, but I think Harry Turtledove has written extensively with that as his prime inflection point. He suggest WW1 would have been fought in trenches along the the Mason Dixon line, I think.

For some reason I have given this lots of thought the last year. I attribute it to reading STRATFOR reports for 15 years or more plus lots of time in boring jobs. But here is my take, anyone else who likes please tell me I have it right or I am full of it.


First, "how they win" is indeed important. The CSA would not have been able to pound the North to defeat. A win would be keeping it as bloody as possible. The goal would be to get the populations of the Northern cities to say, "why are we spilling all this Irish Blood over a bunch of darkies? Let them have their way." Along the way the Brits, who were NOT strong allies of the USA at this point to come in on it. The Brits, still sore over losing the colonies, the War of 1812, and letting the USA walk off with half of Oregon Country, might very well have been happy to help.

The South had a good army but a poor navy. British help might have been to eject the Yankee Blockade from New Orleans and a few other ports. Like when you invite your our of work brother-in-law for Christmas, the Brits would have stayed. They would have had right of first refusal on all that southern cotton. Slavery would have died out in the next 10-20 years and the Brits might have helped that along. I feel what would have come about would be a gentler form of separate but equal, still having sharecropping and blacks maybe with some autonomy like the South African "homelands" but less formalized.

The USA would still purchase Alaska and probably take Hawaii as the need for coaling stations was universal among the western nations. But the Spanish-American war would not have happened because the USA would not need to eject the Spanish from Cuba to protect New Orleans. Spain would not have rotted from within so much and their civil war might not have happened. This would have deprived Hitler of a testing ground for his troops and equipment.

WWI would have still happened, but I doubt the "trenches along M-D. The USA would have their head in a vise between the CSA and their British allies in the south and those pesky Canadians, still Brits at this time, in the north. WWI started in Europe with nearly no USA involvement. The USA might have supported the Germans more just to bleed the Brits. If the USA got involved at all it would be on the German side, but logistically that would be impossible. The war would last longer, but the Brits would prevail what with their colonial system having far more resources. Without Woodrow Wilson to push for a more gentle peace the Brits would impose at lest as harsh of peace terms as actually happened.

So a big assumption here is Hitler still rises to power. Since the USA never got the Philippine Islands, Guam, or Midway the Japanese are not nearly as threatened. In fact, the CSA would keep exporting oil to them as long as they kept paying. With neither side threatening the other a "you keep to your hemisphere and we will keep to ours" attitude emerges. With the Brits and the USA never having developed the "special relationship" post Civil War, Lend-Lease never happens. The USA sucks the British gold supply dry, possible forcing them to cede Canada to the USA (meaning no curling and no Jennifer Jones but that is another lesson.)

Hitler would starve the Brits to surrender, but as he respected them their empire would remain as long as he had carte banche in the USSR. He would accommodate the Japanese in the Eastern USSR for a generation anyways. If not ceded directly, Canada would become effectively a vassal of the USA without their British sponsors. The postwar-trade system would never happen because the Pound, Dollar, and Mark would compete for dominance.

Of course that is quite a bit to project, but that is most of my guess. Any other takes on it?

Quote: Pacomartin

You seem to know your stuff.

No, I usually just make things up.

>I have seen these summary figures:
Always distrust the summary figures and did deeper if you can, but remember in wartime there was instantaneous censorship. Pearl Harbor started out with this "x number of ships damaged or sunk" it was only foreign newspapers that gave the correct figures.
"Higher Values" always existed. Why do think movie stars were photographed in Navy uniforms and saying "If I were a man, I'd join the Navy".... men were desperately needed for the Navy at the time. War bonds had to be sold, lies had to be told.


US military deaths 416,800 (includes Merchant Marine (9,500) and Coast Guard (1,900))
US civilian deaths due to military activity 1,700

The breakout by service is as follows:
Army 318,274,
Navy 62,614,
Marine Corps 24,511,
United States Coast Guard 1,917,
Gun crews on armed Merchant Ships were Coasties, so were the men who took Landing Craft in. A good deal of confusion would exist with these figures. Recall perhaps the lifeboat that refused to be rescued, the occupants figuring that after taking to the lifeboats on three ships, they were better staying there. How much confusion would that cause.
United States Merchant Marine 9,521.
Its known that the Merchant Marine were themselves a priority target. If they died, fewer would volunteer, those who did would be unskilled and the best way for Germany to interdict war materiel from reaching their destination was to consider the crew the primary target, the ship a secondary target and its cargo the least important target. Some Naval officers refused to obey orders to machine gun the fleeing unarmed crew and the ship's lifeboats, but generally the Merchant Marine was a target. This does not lead to accurate reporting.
How many Americans know that a German battleship was steaming to rescue survivors of a troopship convoy that had been torpedoed. The battleship had broadcast in both English and German and had covered its guns with the large signal flag, Church.
Despite their obvious non-combatant status and rescue mission, a US bomber spotted them and was ordered to attack the ship.

Civilian dead were 1,704 American civilians interned: 1,536 by the Japanese, and 168 by Germany.
This too was a suspect category. Many soldiers on Wake Island discarded uniforms and tried to say they were civilian contract workers. One American in the Philipines happened to be the Guatelma Honorary Consul, so he raised the Guatemala flag and yelled "Diplomatico" to soldiers and spoke only Spanish as in the early confusion, the Japanese flew him out to a neutral country. Japanese forces often interned citizens of neutral countries as "Americans". And don't forget "A Bridge to the Sun" where an American woman left Washington, DC under Marine escort and went to Japan to accompany her Japanese husband. There is always confusion and figures are always suspect. Particularly in the Pacific Theater where it was clear than the war was brutal and many attrocities were taking place. The Japanese were moving POWs on military vessels so just about every American submarine Captain knew he was aiming at fellow Americans who not only would drown but drown in cages. War propaganda movies made a big thing of saving that final bullet for yourself, but it was only in the Pacific Theater where it was actually a practice.

Just try getting figures for the Homefront. Weather forecasts and such things as floods were SECRET. The major Circus Fire in Hartford where the code of "The Stars and Stripes Forever" alerted all circus personel and saved countless lives was a SECRET. The BBC opened Unexploded Bomb with a British officer seeking directions to his new posting from unhelpful schoolboys. This was realistic. Signs were destroyed, people who asked directions were told to present themselves at the police station for identification. The general populace was told to reveal nothing. Under circumstances like that you don't get accurate numbers.

Consider the death of a bandleader... do you really think the military was going to say Band leader's small unarmed plane flew through an area, unmarked on his charts, that was for returning bombing crews to jettison their undropped ordnance. Box barrages were known to kill friendly troops. Friendly fire and mis identification of troops was common in North Africa.