Ukraine conflict

Quote: rxwine

Based on Russia’s early performance, seems like Russia had too many paper pushing generals, or were checking boxes instead of actual training. They did have a core of trained people, but apparently not a lot of depth in numbers for extended war with many divisions involved.

Russia does seem to have three things going for it. An ( insane ) unwavering commitment to proceed regardless of the cost: An ability to buy in weapons cheaply from its allies ( Paid in Oil or favours ): A "Nothing off the table" disregard for laws or international convention.
Conversely, the West is constrained by : Government by multiple players each with their own weaknesses and conflicting agendas: Limited and expensive sources of weapons from a profit based industry of a few big players, to be paid in cash because the West lacks commodities: Constrained by international debates and hand wringing about what can be done.
The West is playing chess with bishops and knights while Russia is cheating with tanks and rockets in the game.

I reckon lack of Western unity and resolve is by far the weakest link.

Big picture: Russia has a strong advantage. It's not fair, but it's reality.

Quote: OnceDear

Russia does seem to have three things going for it. An ( insane ) unwavering commitment to proceed regardless of the cost: An ability to buy in weapons cheaply from its allies ( Paid in Oil or favours ): A "Nothing off the table" disregard for laws or international convention.
Conversely, the West is constrained by : Government by multiple players each with their own weaknesses and conflicting agendas: Limited and expensive sources of weapons from a profit based industry of a few big players, to be paid in cash because the West lacks commodities: Constrained by international debates and hand wringing about what can be done.
The West is playing chess with bishops and knights while Russia is cheating with tanks and rockets in the game.

I reckon lack of Western unity and resolve is by far the weakest link.

Big picture: Russia has a strong advantage. It's not fair, but it's reality.

I do think there is resistance to war with Ukraine in Russia at high levels, and it was dealt with by people falling out of windows and down stairs. As well as the thug whose plane was shot down with his soldiers for hire.

Putin did do a classic move to create a strong offensive right before the approval of new funds that had been stalled and Ukraine was weakest. I don't think the Ukrainians will quit until they are overrun though no matter how few the weapons. They might quit if the west guarantees them entry into other countries. But I don't think they willl quit on any Putin guarantees. (I wouldn't. I'd expect the worse, sooner or later having to live as a former Ukrainian under him)

Due to a shortage of men caused by a high male mortality rate, Russias population was already shrinking before the war.

Since the war started, they've lost as many as 700,000 more people who left Russia to avoid conscription, and another 150,000 dead and 350,000 wounded in Ukraine.

They've lost so many men, they're now recruiting female prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

They've also seen a massive brain drain that is damaging Russia's economy.

Quote: Tanko

Due to a shortage of men caused by a high male mortality rate, Russias population was already shrinking before the war.

Since the war started, they've lost as many as 700,000 more people who left Russia to avoid conscription, and another 150,000 dead and 350,000 wounded in Ukraine.

They've lost so many men, they're now recruiting female prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

They've also seen a massive brain drain that is damaging Russia's economy.

I think the brain drain started about 20 years ago when Putin started de-emphasizing higher education and universities. The Russians are incredibly dependent on foreigners for technical abilities. With the war the oil industry will start a major collapse that will set it back 10 years since they depend on foreigners for all of the technical repairs to the oil wells and infrastructure. All of the Russians capable of that type of work are at retirement age and the new generation doesn't have the skills.

From WSJ story.

Quote:

evangelical churches in Ukraine have faced a violent crackdown by Russian forces since the occupation began. These churches, along with other non-Russian Orthodox Christian faiths, have been deemed undesirable. Tens of thousands of believers have been forced to flee, and those who remain gather in secret for fear of angering the new regime. Russian forces have captured and killed religious leaders, and many places of worship have been shut down12. The situation reflects a wider systematic religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine3. It’s a distressing reality for the affected communities, and their safety remains precarious.

Quote: Tanko

Due to a shortage of men caused by a high male mortality rate, Russias population was already shrinking before the war.

Since the war started, they've lost as many as 700,000 more people who left Russia to avoid conscription, and another 150,000 dead and 350,000 wounded in Ukraine.

They've lost so many men, they're now recruiting female prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

They've also seen a massive brain drain that is damaging Russia's economy.

But.... Putin doesn't care and anyone or any group that does care IS getting defenestrated.

The side with right on itside does not always prevail. There is no God and precious little justice. We are where we are.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Tanko

Due to a shortage of men caused by a high male mortality rate, Russias population was already shrinking before the war.

Since the war started, they've lost as many as 700,000 more people who left Russia to avoid conscription, and another 150,000 dead and 350,000 wounded in Ukraine.

They've lost so many men, they're now recruiting female prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

They've also seen a massive brain drain that is damaging Russia's economy.

But.... Putin doesn't care and anyone or any group that does care IS getting defenestrated.

The side with right on itside does not always prevail. There is no God and precious little justice. We are where we are.

Assuming enough of them survive, Ukraine is going to have the most experienced modern army in the world if this ends at least in a stalemate. Not sure how big it will be though.

I'm also thinking nuclear armaments have an unfortunate side effect of leading to long grinding wars. You want to throttle your enemy slowly so as not to alarm him to panic and hit the button. You may even have to have guarantee sanctuary for their leaders so not to encourage them to use their nukes in desperation.

Quote: rxwine

Assuming enough of them survive, Ukraine is going to have the most experienced modern army in the world if this ends at least in a stalemate. Not sure how big it will be though.

I would not call it modern. Most of the weapons provided to them are old stock. Russians are scared of the F-16's coming. The first F-16's flew in 1975, that is almost 50 years ago.

Quote: DRich

I would not call it modern. Most of the weapons provided to them are old stock. Russians are scared of the F-16's coming. The first F-16's flew in 1975, that is almost 50 years ago.

War planners are intently studying the modern battlefield that is Ukraine.