Gigafactory

Quote: reno

The problem isn't demand, the problem is supply. Tesla was 3 years behind schedule with their Model S. I'm a Tesla apologist, and even I'm doubtful that they'll be able to make deliveries of the Model 3 by the end of 2017 as promised.

I would not be surprised if they did the showing of it to keep the stock pumped. Issue was on MSN today. It will compete with the Bolt, which GM can afford to lose money on. Tesla has a cash burn rate such that they will burn it all within a year or so and cannot take losses same as GM.

Quote:

You set the bar awfully high. His company has already built 110,000 extremely high tech cars, what the hell does this guy have to do to earn your respect? His other company has already flown 6 rockets to the International Space Station. Read up on Falcon 9 (an orbital trajectory rocket which in December successfully landed vertically on the launch pad), and then tell me how he's just another snake oil salesman.

To earn my respect he has to make Tesla a profitable company without selling EV credits. His ideas have to work in the real world, not sit mostly unused like his charging station. At the moment I see TSLA a little like a 1999 internet stock. Unprofitable, burning cash, and future questionable.

Quote: reno

As I write this the U.S. average for gasoline is $2.04/gallon (gasbuddy.com). For every $2 I spend on electricity, my car will go about 73 miles.

So when gas was $1.75, it was about the
same as a high mileage gas car. But as
gas goes up, you benefit. Why are there
places that charge for free. You can't even
get air for your tires for free anymore.

Quote: Evenbob

Why are there
places that charge for free. You can't even
get air for your tires for free anymore.

Surprising, I know. Volta's business model is to purchase electricity in bulk at cheap rates. The parking spots are donated by the shopping mall (to attract wealthy Tesla drivers to their mall). And Volta makes their profits by selling advertising on smallish billboards located adjacent to the parking spot.

Let me know if you find a Shell or Exxon station giving away free gasoline.

Quote: reno

And Volta makes their profits by selling advertising on smallish billboards located adjacent to the parking spot.

I imagine that they also get some revenue over and above free parking spaces from the store owners who get to sell to bored EV owners. I seriously doubt that they can make a profit on smallish billboard advertising alone.

While I have no doubt that operating costs are lower with an EV (73 miles for $2 for roughly 25 miles for $2) I doubt that makes up for the depreciation loss.

Quote: AZDuffman

To earn my respect he has to make Tesla a profitable company without selling EV credits.

His revenue from selling EV credits can't last much longer. Sooner or later, the competition will confront this existential crisis.

Mazda sells 319,000 vehicles annually in the U.S. (all models.) Suppose you're the CEO of Mazda and you wake up on the morning of April 4, 2016 and read this article in the newspaper that a newcomer to the industry, (a newcomer that Mazda has been subsidizing with EV credits!) just received deposits for 276,000 electric cars in less than 72 hours. Are you going to bury your head in the sand and pretend it didn't happen? Or are you going to start selling EVs???

There are only 2 options: sink or swim.

Quote: reno

His revenue from selling EV credits can't last much longer. Sooner or later, the competition will confront this existential crisis.

Mazda sells 319,000 vehicles annually in the U.S. (all models.) Suppose you're the CEO of Mazda and you wake up on the morning of April 4, 2016 and read this article in the newspaper that a newcomer to the industry, (a newcomer that Mazda has been subsidizing with EV credits!) just received deposits for 276,000 electric cars in less than 72 hours. Are you going to bury your head in the sand and pretend it didn't happen? Or are you going to start selling EVs???

There are only 2 options: sink or swim.

So Tesla is getting 1.5% or so of the current market if they sold every one of those 276,000 a year. Of course they cannot make that many so it will be over a few years. EVs are still a niche market. Mazda would be insane to drop a fortune on EVs as a niche player themselves. They ain't got the capital to waste.

I already heard the conspiracy theory that lots of TSLA stockholders are putting down deposits to pump the stock. Not going to say I believe it, but will say such things have been done before.

One thing is for sure, as more and more mainstream EVs hit the market the idea that they work will be proved or disproved. Nissan is not all that happy with their results so far. Will consumers trade one EV for another when they replace?

Quote: reno

Suppose you're the CEO of Mazda ... Are you going to bury your head in the sand and pretend it didn't happen? Or are you going to start selling EVs???
There are only 2 options: sink or swim.

Mazda made the Demio EV :A limited (100 leased units) production electric vehicle for Japanese market. It included 346-Volt 20kWh lithium-ion battery with 200 km driving range. Leasing began in October 2012.

The production version of the GM Spark features an 130 hp (97 kW) motor, providing 400 lb-ft of torque, powered by a 474 lb, 120 kW, 400v, 21.3 kWh lithium-ion battery pack.

Pretty small batteries!

Quote: AZDuffman

I already heard the conspiracy theory that lots of TSLA stockholders are putting down deposits to pump the stock.

Right. And all those people waiting in line on March 31 were merely Hollywood actors hired by Wall St to give the appearance that people were waiting overnight in long lines.

Quote: AZDuffman

Not going to say I believe it, but will say such things have been done before.

If you don't believe it, then why the hell are you repeating this ridiculous crap?

According to your snake oil salesman conspiracy, Musk is a stock salesman, not a car salesman. The gigafactory, the Powerwall, the Insane/Ludicrous mode, the Supercharger stations, all of it is a giant ruse to sell stock. Musk is the con man, and electric car drivers investors are the marks.

Here's what hasn't occurred to you: maybe Musk sincerely believes that electric cars offer a superior driving experience compared to gasoline cars. Maybe (just maybe) Musk sincerely believes his own rhetoric about climate change.

Quote: reno

Right. And all those people waiting in line on March 31 were merely Hollywood actors hired by Wall St to give the appearance that people were waiting overnight in long lines.

They have to have something to do in between false flag operations, don't you know? ;)

Quote:

According to your snake oil salesman conspiracy, Musk is a stock salesman, not a car salesman. The gigafactory, the Powerwall, the Insane/Ludicrous mode, the Supercharger stations, all of it is a giant ruse to sell stock. Musk is the con man, and electric car drivers investors are the marks.

Don't forget Paypal!!

He also gets criticized because SpaceX takes money from NASA. Well, if you're selling launches to low Earth orbit, NASA is a big customer. Businesses don't grow large by ignoring the bigger customers.

Quote: reno

Right. And all those people waiting in line on March 31 were merely Hollywood actors hired by Wall St to give the appearance that people were waiting overnight in long lines.

If you don't believe it, then why the hell are you repeating this ridiculous crap?

It would probably not be the first time if they did hire actors and actresses. I posted it in the spirit of I report, you decide.

Quote:

According to your snake oil salesman conspiracy, Musk is a stock salesman, not a car salesman. The gigafactory, the Powerwall, the Insane/Ludicrous mode, the Supercharger stations, all of it is a giant ruse to sell stock. Musk is the con man, and electric car drivers investors are the marks.

Here's what hasn't occurred to you: maybe Musk sincerely believes that electric cars offer a superior driving experience compared to gasoline cars. Maybe (just maybe) Musk sincerely believes his own rhetoric about climate change.

It would not be the first time a huge company built facilities with a unviable idea. Ever hear of Tucker? DeLorean? Davis? Bricklin? All auto-industry guys who sold more hype than cars.

He may succeed in the end. However, I have read the book and seen the movie before so far. One thing for sure is Tesla in no way can justify their current market cap, stockholders should beware.