the death of coal?

Quote: RonC

...cutting out all fossil fuels is just stupid.

From 1960 to 2000 change in US electricity generation measured in TWh in US by source
+1563 coal
+76 petroleum
+443 natural gas
From 2000 to 2020 change in US electricity generation measured in TWh in US by source
-1192 coal
-88 petroleum
+1016 natural gas

Even the most hard core advocate of renewables knows that we have to have some natural gas generated electricity to get out of some emergencies. But they want to see it reduced to "peakers" that are turned on for a few hours on especially hot summer days.

By the end of 2020 the use of coal in electricity generation was the same level as it was in 1972. Petroleum levels are back to the 1950s and are only heavily used in Hawaii and Alaska where traditionally importing coal or natural gas would be extremely expensive.

Natural gas generation produces less than half the greenhouse gases of coal. So while it is not exactly benign, it is the least egregious of the fossil fuels.

Average residential rates for electricity relative to national average for 2019 (for Western Interconnect grid)
75% Washington - Columbia River is most powerful river in the West. Much of it forms border with Oregon
76% Idaho
80% Utah
85% Oregon
86% Montana
86% Wyoming - Powder River Basin is nation's largest concentration of coal best suited for generating electricity
92% Nevada
94% Colorado
96% Arizona
96% New Mexico
147% California

Keep in mind that these rankings are from 2019 and California rates have skyrocketed since then. Almost all of these states export electricity, while California is the largest domestic importer of electricity of any state (they get some electricity from Mexico as well). When I point out this discrepancy in rates many people have argued that California's sky high electricity rates are not because of their regulations regarding renewables. Indeed Kansas and Oklahama have harnessed huge wind farms without their rates zooming so far above the national average.

Our electricity in Pennsylvania has a customer service charge of $18.68 and costs 10.8 cents per kWh. The primary source of electricity is reported to be as follows.
39.14% Natural Gas
29.40% Nuclear
26.91% Coal
1.33% Wind
1.08% Solar
0.99% Hydro
1.15% Other
I could voluntarily pay more than twice as much to have my electricity come from renewables. According to the EIAs Electric Power Monthly the average rate for residential electricity in California is 22.45 cents per kWh although people tell me peak time of use can be 54 cents per kWh.

I would suspect that your numbers for natural gas don't include the gas generation that occurs at the wind farms so they can meet their contract amounts. Those number are probably included in the wind numbers. That obviously makes is even harder to meet the targets.

Change in GWh Compare California with the US as a whole for a five year period (2014-2019)

California - Primary - United states
-9 Oil -11,000
-763 Coal -617,000
-864 Nuclear 12,000
-35,869 Natural Gas 459,000
+19,406 Large Hydro ----
+18,986 Renewables Totals 189,000
+1,282 System Totals 32,000
+16,620 CA Imports


California having eliminated most oil, coal and nuclear in previous periods has few plants left to close. So they are closing down natural gas while the rest of the nation is increasing natural gas.

CA is keeping the status quo as to total amount of electricity produced in state which is probably why the price keeps rising as they must import more and more from other states in the western interconnect. In the future the imported electricity must meet the same criteria as electricity generated in-state.

Quote:

SPARTANBURG, S.C. (AP) — A former utility executive who lied to ratepayers and regulators costing billions of dollars after he found out a pair of nuclear reactors being built in South Carolina were hopelessly behind schedule will soon be heading to prison for two years.

Marsh is the first executive to go to prison for the failed project to build two nuclear reactors which cost ratepayers billions of dollars and never generated a watt of power.

A state judge Monday accepted the negotiated sentence of former SCANA CEO Kevin Marsh. He is the first executive to go to prison over the project, which lasted nine years and never generated a watt of power.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/1st-executive-to-head-to-prison-in-doomed-nuclear-project/ar-AAPmr9c?ocid=msedgntp

Quote: rxwine

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/1st-executive-to-head-to-prison-in-doomed-nuclear-project/ar-AAPmr9c?ocid=msedgntp

I hope all the environmentalists and bureaucrats that caused the delay will also go to jail.

Now, there's a global coal shortage. Just as the US is facing its lowest levels of heating oil in twenty years.

"Global Energy Crisis Threatens to Hit U.S. Grids This Winter"

"The global economic recovery from the pandemic has driven up demand for power, triggering shortages and higher prices for natural gas, especially in Asia. That’s prompted utilities to use more coal, which as a result is also now in short supply around the world. U.S. utilities are switching away from gas and expected to burn about 23% more coal this year."

Quote: Tanko

Now, there's a global coal shortage. Just as the US is facing its lowest levels of heating oil in twenty years.

"Global Energy Crisis Threatens to Hit U.S. Grids This Winter"

"The global economic recovery from the pandemic has driven up demand for power, triggering shortages and higher prices for natural gas, especially in Asia. That’s prompted utilities to use more coal, which as a result is also now in short supply around the world. U.S. utilities are switching away from gas and expected to burn about 23% more coal this year."

In 2018, California passed a state law dubbed "The 100 Percent Clean Energy Act" (Senate Bill 100). The Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) equires any merchant of energy in California to increase its procurement of eligible renewable energy resources to 33% of retail sales by 2020 and 60% of retail sales by 2030.

In the year 2020 California got 33.35% of it's in-state electricity from renewables and 32.50% of it's imported energy from renewables.. Combined the total energy of in-state and imported electricity was 33.09%.

Renewables in CA including imported electricity
33.09% in 2020
31.70% in 2019
31.36% in 2018
29.00% in 2017
25.45% in 2016
21.90% in 2015
20.29% in 2014

Presumably to meet their goal of 60% in 2030 they expect to increase the percent from renewables by ~3% per year.

Rolling blackout are obviously very expensive, both in dollar terms and in people's safety as the worst shortfalls occur in summer heat waves when air conditioning is extremely important.

Although most people associate coal with West Virginia, it is still a critical component of states in the Rocky Mountain portions of the Western interconnect. Coal is still widely used in Utah which given its proximity and attachment to SOCAL with HVDC transmission line exports a lot of electricity to CA.

Percent of electricity generated by coal in 2020 (Western Interconnect states)
79.4% WY
61.5% UT
37.5% NM
36.4% MT
36.0% CO
19.3% US-TOTAL
12.6% AZ
4.8% NV
4.5% WA
2.6% OR
0.2% CA
0.1% ID


So the question will be what is more important this summer?

TRIVIA
Pennsylvania reduced it's reliance on coal from 50% to 10% in the last decade, but they replaced it with natural gas. None of that solar, wind, biomass, etc stuff of Pennsylvanians. Nevada was using 50% coal back in 2003, and they are more progressive than Pennsylvania or they just have more sun.

Quote: The head of the American Atomic Energy Commission, Lewis Strauss-1954

In fifteen years, nuclear power will provide electricity too cheap to measure its consumption

Quote: Tanko

Now, there's a global coal shortage. Just as the US is facing its lowest levels of heating oil in twenty years.

...U.S. utilities are switching away from gas and expected to burn about 23% more coal this year."

Now, there's a wind shortage.

First it was this:

"How Climate Change May Be Impacting Storms Over Earth's Tropical Oceans"

“Within the scientific community it’s a relatively well-accepted fact that as global temperatures increase, extreme precipitation will very likely increase as well." - NASA

Now This:

"Climate Change Causes EXTREME CALM!"

“The explanation of [wind speed anomalies] points to the phenomenon called global stilling and it is related to #climatechange induced warming in the poles.” - Roberta Boscolo, UN World Meteorological Organization

Weak winds in Europe caused by climate change.

"Europe’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Wind Stops Blowing"

Quote: Tanko

Now, there's a wind shortage.

First it was this:

"How Climate Change May Be Impacting Storms Over Earth's Tropical Oceans"

“Within the scientific community it’s a relatively well-accepted fact that as global temperatures increase, extreme precipitation will very likely increase as well." - NASA

Now This:

"Climate Change Causes EXTREME CALM!"

“The explanation of [wind speed anomalies] points to the phenomenon called global stilling and it is related to #climatechange induced warming in the poles.” - Roberta Boscolo, UN World Meteorological Organization

Weak winds in Europe caused by climate change.

"Europe’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Wind Stops Blowing"

This is all new territory for the planet
We are trying to predict what will change
But
We really have no idea on the specifics
Things are gonna get very weird on this planet regarding weather due to climate change
If anything, weather will become more unpredictable

Quote: terapined

This is all new territory for the planet
We are trying to predict what will change
But
We really have no idea on the specifics
Things are gonna get very weird on this planet regarding weather due to climate change
If anything, weather will become more unpredictable

Yes the weather is unpredictable it might even get colder.