What is a brokered convention?

I've been hearing on the news that if no GOP candidate gets 50% + 1 of the delegates, then they will have a "brokered convention." What would happen in that situation? Let's say, for the sake of example, that Trump has the most delegates at 40% and the other 60% are split among the rest.

For purposes of the poll, here is some more clarification:

Option B: They would eliminate the candidate with the fewest votes and let those delegates vote for whomever they wish. Then if somebody has 50% + 1 he wins. Otherwise, keep repeating, eliminating the lowest guy, until somebody has 50% + 1.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

It's the last thing you want, it's a mess. The
last one was in 1952 I believe.

My reading of that link is that the delegates would be released from their obligations and re-vote for whomever they wish. Presumably the delegates for candidates with no much hope would have a tough decision to make.

I wonder if the specific delegates can do what they wish, or do the parties from which they hail tell them what to do.

Quote: Wizard

My reading of that link is that the delegates would be released from their obligations and re-vote for whomever they wish. Presumably the delegates for candidates with no much hope would have a tough decision to make.

A brokered convention is considered a wholesale disaster for a political party. As EB pointed out the last one was in 1952. The candidates should do nearly anything to avoid a second vote.

There were some visionary analysts that foresaw this issue the minute that Donald declared his candidacy. They envisioned him having the highest popular vote, and the most delegates, and the brokering process selecting someone else. Which is followed by DT creating a media storm that overshadows the Republican Convention.

As I posted in another thread (on third term presidency), even conventions that are "nearly brokered" which means deal making in the last few weeks before the first vote of the convention, have always lost the general election. Thomas Dewey and Adlai Stevenson were candidates of actual brokered candidates. The other 5 candidates were from "nearly brokered" conventions. The last candidate that nearly had to be brokered was in 1988.

Quote: Pacomartin

A brokered convention refers to a situation in which no single candidate has secured a pre-existing majority of delegates prior to the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention. Through most of the US history brokered conventions were the norm.

The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1932.

1948 Harry S. Truman-303; Thomas E. Dewey-189; Strom Thurmond-39
1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower-442; Adlai Stevenson-89
1968 Richard Nixon-301; Hubert Humphrey-191; George Wallace-46
1976 Jimmy Carter-297; Gerald Ford-240
1980 Ronald Reagan-489; Jimmy Carter-49
1984 Ronald Reagan-515; Walter Mondale-13
1988 George H. W. Bush-426; Michael Dukakis-111

When we say that the last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1932 that is because the rules of politics were much different. A Democratic candidate needed a 2/3 majority to be nominated. FDR had about 58%-60% for the first three votes, and he ended up getting about 80% of the votes on the fourth round. The Democrats changed that rule to a simple majority after 1936.

The 1980 Democratic National Convention is considered "nearly brokered" because even though Jimmy Carter was the incumbent president, Ted Kennedy did not abdicate until the convention. It was the last time in the 20th century, for either major party, that a candidate tried to get delegates released from their voting commitments. Since JC lost the general election so badly, TK never really suffered for going against an incumbent president in the primaries.

I vote "other" because a lot depends on the Democratic primaries. If come super tuesday, Hillary is winning everything and all the other candidates drop out, then the no matter how egomaniacal the Republican candidate is, he will know that they can't afford to broker the Republican convention.

If the Democratic race becomes a real race, or Hillary get sick, then I think they will chance a brokered convention.

If Hillary gets sick she just may run with Bill as VP. It will be challenged in the Supreme Court, but it is by no means clear which way the vote will go. Besides it may not be decided until after the election, at which time Bill will resign and the Democrats will choose someone else.

Quote: Pacomartin

If Hillary gets sick she just may run with Bill as VP.

Impossible. Illegal. And not even the Clintons would try such a Banana Republic move.

Quote: Wizard

My reading of that link is that the delegates would be released from their obligations and re-vote for whomever they wish. Presumably the delegates for candidates with no much hope would have a tough decision to make.

If you have Netflix there is an episode of "The West Wing" where the Democrat Convention is brokered. Not going to say it is totally accurate, but a good look. It is from the final season but not sure which episode.

I'm trying to prepare myself for The Abomination, I think it is quite likely. Seriously, I have been talking hysterically and need to calm down and realize the world will not end.

Quote: AZDuffman

Not going to say it is totally accurate, but a good look.

Whose to say what is accurate? The last time there was a brokered election the constitutional amendment to Limits the number of times that a person can be elected president: a person cannot be elected president more than twice, and a person who has served more than two years of a term to which someone else was elected cannot be elected more than once. had just been ratified on February 27, 1951.

Although Truman, as incumbent POTUS, he was exempt from the amendment under a grandfather clause, he was proving very unpopular because of the Korean War. He did run in the NH primary and was badly beaten before he withdrew from the race, but he claimed in his memoirs that he had already decided to withdraw before the primary.

There were only 13 primaries and Kefauver won 12 of them, but he was still not nominated by his party. Adlai Stevensen, the favorite of Truman was chosen. Governor Stevenson, did not even campaign for the primaries and was not even a candidate when he was asked to give the welcoming address to the delegates. He proceeded to give a witty and stirring address that led his supporters to begin a renewed round of efforts to nominate him, despite his protests.



It seems so unlikely today that a candidate could be nominated while only declaring his candidacy during the convention. Of course, he was slaughtered by General Eisenhower in the general election.

Quote: AZDuffman

Impossible. Illegal. And not even the Clintons would try such a Banana Republic move.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/14/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-vice-president/index.html - she thought about it, and decided not. It's a good reason not to vote for her if she was serious. I'd agree it's a bad move, and against the spirit of the laws if not the actual wording of the amendments.

(I'd say: But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States. is pretty clear anyways, but there's gymnastics between this and 22nd amendment some people try to pull off).