What is a brokered convention?

I have to turn up the volume when Carson talks.
He's Casper Milqtoast, he's not capable of
getting out of his own way. It didn't help
him when we saw his wife. She was a major
frump with clothes that went out of style
in the 90's. It was pretty scary.

Quote: Pacomartin

So you think this recent drop for Carson is permanent?

Although I have a bet on him at 10 to 1, yes, I think so. He will go down as the Herman Cain of 2015.

My prediction for who will actually win the nomination is Rubio. Second is Bush.

Let me put it out there now that it would not surprise me if Trump gets the most delegates but loses in a brokered convention, claims it wasn't fair, runs as a third party candidate, and you can guess who wins the general election. I'm not saying this 100% -- just that it wouldn't surprise me.

Quote: Wizard

if Trump gets the most delegates but loses in a brokered convention

I think Donald Trump will quickly realize that the chosen candidate will probably lose against Hillary. As we observed from the last several decades, candidates need to win nomination by big majorities to win general elections.

I think he is savvy enough to know that running as a third party candidate will make him look like the spoiler. But if he has the most delegates and they select someone else who then loses, he is in an incredibly strong position in four years. He can spend the next term pointing out that he had the most delegates and "look what happened".

In particular if we go to war, I think Hillary will possibly get impeached. Not for any particular wrong doing, but she won't have the respect of the military.

Quote: Pacomartin

but she won't have the respect of the military.

Hillary made no bones in the WH about
loathing the military. She disrespected
them whenever possible.

Quote: Evenbob

Hillary made no bones in the WH about loathing the military. She disrespected them whenever possible.

I think if you really want to impeach someone, you can find an action. If we go to war, and they want Hillary impeached, they will make one of these charges stick.

The scenario where "Trump has the most delegates, the Republicans choose someone else, and they lose the general election, and USA goes to war" might result in Trump having another shot in 4 years or even less. But if he runs as an independent, then people will say he was an egomaniac who threw the election to Hillary.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think Donald Trump will quickly realize that the chosen candidate will probably lose against Hillary. As we observed from the last several decades, candidates need to win nomination by big majorities to win general elections.

2008 would disprove this.

I see it more likability and energy. Trump has energy, big time. Last time GOP had this much was 1980. The likability issue is split, some people hate Trump and some hate Hillary. Trump has the advantage in that he knows how to show himself on TV and has run the same gimmick since the 1980s. Hillary, OTOH, has no core personality. Hillary is the marketing manager who wants every last piece of research on a product before bringing it to market. Trump says damn the research, the people will love it!

Hillary is terrified of making a mistake. Trump figures he makes half a dozen mistakes before lunch but will fix them before dinner. I give likability to the alpha-male by a nose. One thing about Trump, he will not yield to Hillary's usual tactics in debates. He will throw anything she says right back at her.

Of course there is another possibility. Trump fades and Hillary and the media have then wasted a year throwing punches at a guy no longer running.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think he is savvy enough to know that running as a third party candidate will make him look like the spoiler.

I don't think he will care. Being in the news every day until election day will be enough.

Quote:

In particular if we go to war, I think Hillary will possibly get impeached. Not for any particular wrong doing, but she won't have the respect of the military.

I don't think the military liked Obama much, but for the most part, they respect the chain of command. Also, it isn't the military that does the impeaching.

Quote: Wizard

I don't think the military liked Obama much, but for the most part, they respect the chain of command. Also, it isn't the military that does the impeaching.

But he was not a wartime POTUS. These terrorists in California were from Pakistan, which has 6 to 7 times the population of Afghanistan and 11 to 12 times the GDP. I am not saying we will go to war with Pakistan, but I think there is a possibility of being in a wider level of conflict that makes Afghanistan and Iraq look like the boonies.

But I will admit that impeachment is still a long shot. What is a more distinct possibility is that conditions could get very hot in the next two months, and suddenly Trump will start looking like a viable candidate, not only to Republicans, but to the undecideds in the general election.

Quote: Pacomartin

What is a more distinct possibility is that conditions could get very hot in the next two months, and suddenly Trump will start looking like a viable candidate, not only to Republicans, but to the undecideds in the general election.

I could not picture any set of circumstances that would cause Trump to win the general election. Even if a huge war broke out I think most people would not want a reality show celebrity to be POTUS.

I'll give you 10 to 1 on Trump to win the general election.

Quote: Wizard

most people would not want a reality show celebrity to be POTUS. .

True enough. But somebody who's been a
major businessman and developer for
45 years, who knows how to deal with
all kinds of people and knows how to
get what he wants, that might be a
refreshing change from what we've
had for the last 25 years. Somebody
who isn't bought and paid for the
minute he steps into office and isn't
terrified to speak his mind.