What is a brokered convention?

Quote: TheCesspit

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/14/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-vice-president/index.html - she thought about it, and decided not. It's a good reason not to vote for her if she was serious. I'd agree it's a bad move, and against the spirit of the laws if not the actual wording of the amendments.

(I'd say: But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States. is pretty clear anyways, but there's gymnastics between this and 22nd amendment some people try to pull off).

I would file the "crossed her mind" under the "joke" category. The press is so easy to play. I have enough good reasons not to vote for her without this.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: TheCesspit

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/14/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-vice-president/index.html - she thought about it, and decided not. It's a good reason not to vote for her if she was serious. I'd agree it's a bad move, and against the spirit of the laws if not the actual wording of the amendments.

(I'd say: But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States. is pretty clear anyways, but there's gymnastics between this and 22nd amendment some people try to pull off).

I would file the "crossed her mind" under the "joke" category. The press is so easy to play. I have enough good reasons not to vote for her without this.

If you'd have said that was the only reason not to vote for her, I'd be calling the police to trace your IP and find out who'd kidnapped you and was using your account without consent.

Quote: TheCesspit

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: TheCesspit

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/14/politics/hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-vice-president/index.html - she thought about it, and decided not. It's a good reason not to vote for her if she was serious. I'd agree it's a bad move, and against the spirit of the laws if not the actual wording of the amendments.

(I'd say: But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States. is pretty clear anyways, but there's gymnastics between this and 22nd amendment some people try to pull off).

I would file the "crossed her mind" under the "joke" category. The press is so easy to play. I have enough good reasons not to vote for her without this.

If you'd have said that was the only reason not to vote for her, I'd be calling the police to trace your IP and find out who'd kidnapped you and was using your account without consent.

Call the house as well, I could be being held under duress!

Sticking with the original post, an example of a tight primary race for candidacy was Democrats in 1972. The top 3 contenders each got about one quarter of the popular vote, while the remaining quarter was split among 12 candidates.

Primaries popular vote results:
Hubert Humphrey – 4,121,372 (25.77%)
George McGovern – 4,053,451 (25.34%)
George Wallace – 3,755,424 (23.48%)
Edmund Muskie – 1,840,217 (11.51%)
Eugene McCarthy – 553,990 (3.46%)
Henry M. Jackson – 505,198 (3.16%)
Shirley Chisholm – 430,703 (2.69%)
Terry Sanford – 331,415 (2.07%)
John Lindsay – 196,406 (1.23%)
Samuel Yorty – 79,446 (0.50%)
Wilbur Mills – 37,401 (0.23%)
Walter E. Fauntroy – 21,217 (0.13%)
Ted Kennedy – 16,693 (0.10%)
Vance Hartke – 11,798 (0.07%)
Patsy Mink – 8,286 (0.05%)
Unpledged – 19,533 (0.12%)
None – 6,269 (0.04%)

Also in 1972, George Wallace ran an independent campaign, which guaranteed an overwhelming loss in the general election.

Superficially the 1972 Democratic candidacy race resembles the 2016 Republican candidacy race, but there is a significant difference which could make 2016 much worse. In 1972 George McGovern got a majority of delegates because there were a lot of "winner take all" state primaries.

Despite having three nearly equal candidates in popular vote, it is a convention that did not have uniform support for one candidate. It is not normally considered a "nearly brokered" convention because "George McGovern" had the delegates he needed for nomination.

In 2016, the Republicans made an ill advised decision in 2012 that no state was allowed to award "winner take all delegates" unless they had over 50% of the votes. The rule was designed to blunt a challenge by Ron Paul in 2012. But the rule will bite them in the ass in 2016. It looks like there will be very few states where one candidate gets over 50% of the popular vote. It is extremely likely that no candidate will have a majority of delegates by convention time.

Deals to settle contested elections or nominations are the stuff of legend in American politics. The one lampooned in this caricature depicts possibly the greatest political deal of all time in US presidential history.

Quote: Pacomartin

Superficially the 1972 Democratic candidacy race resembles the 2016 Republican candidacy race, but there is a significant difference which could make 2016 much worse. In 1972 George McGovern got a majority of delegates because there were a lot of "winner take all" state primaries. In 2016, the Republicans made an ill advised decision in 2012 that no state was allowed to award "winner take all delegates" unless they had over 50% of the votes. The rule was designed to blunt a challenge by Ron Paul in 2012. But the rule will bite them in the ass in 2016. It looks like there will be very few states where one candidate gets over 50% of the popular vote. It is extremely likely that no candidate will have a majority of delegates by convention time.

Things for the GOP will normalize. All but the top 3 will drop out or fade to nothing after South Carolina. Will leave Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. It can go a few ways:

1. Trump loses Iowa, similar to how Deal lost there in 2008. Trump does not regain momentum, fades, and decides he has had a fun time of it. Eventually a more "normal" race between Rubio and Cruz.

2. Trump wins Iowa and keeps on rolling. The minor candidates die of lack of oxygen. At this point the GOP can either keep fighting him or realize they have a guy who generates energy and run a populist campaign. Idiots that they are they will probably
fight, giving Trump supporters all the more energy. The press goes nuts trying to kill him.

3. Mixed results in the early primaries. Three way race, but someone will drop making it 2.

At the moment, Trump has the same outsider energy Obama had in 2008. Reality is that it is him vs everyone else on both sides because everyone else is 90%+ the same person, saying the same old things. Hillary is in bed with big money Wall St and the GOP goes along with most anything the Democrats want in the end.

Quote: AZDuffman

Things for the GOP will normalize. All but the top 3 will drop out or fade to nothing after South Carolina. Will leave Trump, Cruz, and Rubio.

So you think this recent drop for Carson is permanent?
Donald Trump 35.8%
Ted Cruz 14.1%
Marco Rubio 12.3%
Ben Carson 11.9%
Jeb Bush 5.0%

I remember that election process
So many dems just hated Nixon, just too many wanted to run against him. Kind of like today with the Repubs and Obama
Even though McGovern got the nomination, the whole convention was a disaster
A candidate winning the nomination gives a big speech to the country.
This is Conventions big moment to shine for the people and showcase who they hope is the next President
That 72 convention where the Dems couldn't agree on anything had McGovern give his big speech at 248am!!!!!! Who's still up? LOL

Most conventions are a total snooze
I am really really looking forward to this Republican convention
I will have the popcorn out

The GOP is already getting ready for a split convention
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-preparing-for-contested-convention/2015/12/10/d72574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html

To answer the question: A very public and media-covered political suicide note.

(Notice there's no smiley at all).

Quote: AZDuffman

3. Mixed results in the early primaries. Three way race, but someone will drop making it 2.

.

I vote your number 3 choice but with still many candidates.
A looming split convention will keep most in.

Having some delegates in the face of a overwhelming winner is meaningless
Having some delegates at a split convention means power.

Quote: Pacomartin

So you think this recent drop for Carson is permanent?
Donald Trump 35.8%
Ted Cruz 14.1%
Marco Rubio 12.3%
Ben Carson 11.9%
Jeb Bush 5.0%

Yes, I think he is done. He has looked too fruity on some issues and his time is past. Being a cord cutter I did not hear much of him but my mother said he sounded a lot like me when she listened to him, go figure. Cruz should pick up most of his support.

The Cruz/Runio dynamic will be a big thing. If one pulls ahead the other may get a visit telling him to drop out in return for some kind of payback. After the offer the person will ask, "How's the family? Good to have family......."

Jeb has all but said he doesn't want to go thru the hassle of running. Nobody else is worth mentioning at this point.

The question on Trump is does a "ground game" still matter? A ground game saved Harry Reid his seat, for sure. Obama used a ground game to knock off Hillary. Is The Donald's support such that people will show up no matter what? IMHO a ground game is more important for Democrats than the GOP. Trump's support is a very working-class support that takes voting more serious than say Obama's young and minority primary voters who always seem to be the big target of "get out the vote" efforts. OTOH, a ground game cannot be ignored totally. You need those guys on the ground to keep people interested at the very least. Also drive older voters to the polls, etc.

The thing is, Trump IS the energy in this election. As Mark Cuban can buy and sell every other shark on the stage, Trump has more media than all the rest. Trump also owns the media. He talks, they report. He goes on a show, people watch. And the media can't scratch him! He does not play their game.

This is his master stroke. Distrust of the media is huge. But he does not whine. He makes them justify themselves, which they hate or can't do. I am among those that love him for that reason alone.