The Coronavirus thread

Quote: SOOPOO

Ummmm... No.... and no! A scrap of paper with your license superimposed does NOT supercede the discussion between you and your doctor. Once you arrive in a hospital in an emergency, and you are incompetent or unconscious, there is NO WAY they will just let you die because there is a piece of paper in your pocket that says so.

If you arrive competent, and are able to understand the risks of your decision, and choose to be DNR, and a doctor decides to treat you against your will, he is NOT guilty of malpractice. He is guilty of ASSAULT. It is a big difference.

True story. In residency at a VA hospital I was called to intubate a man in distress. Old, sick, no realistic chance for recovery. I make a comment that it is surprising that he is not DNR. The poor medical Resident tells me he is DNR, but was intubated and accidentally self extubated. I told him that I will not intubate him as the most recent consent in the chart lists him as DNR, and how he came to be in this new situation does not change that. The Resident argued that he was already intubated and then became DNR, so I should reintubate him to get him back to the same condition he was in before he self extubated. I still refused. I told him if he wanted to in writing rescind the DNR order I'd intubate him. The resident did just that. i don't remember if there were any repercussions.

Quote: petroglyph

https://disrn.com/news/washington-officials-admit-to-counting-gunshot-victims-as-covid-19-deaths

What is the reason for claiming more Covid deaths than is more accurate?

Quote: terapined

On the flip side
What is the reason for claiming less Covid deaths is more accurate?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/trump-admin-won-t-require-nursing-homes-count-covid-19-n1213141?fbclid=IwAR2t6y5F9PUTMSPgIBWDLPEAbCB-tb0b4sINgmzS9J2IRmP_J59dQlVUMEo

Conservatives complaining about over counting a few
Liberals complaining about under counting tens of thousands
Big Diff
Overall the numbers are under counted regarding virus deaths

Quote: kenarman

Part of the problem is defining a Covid19 death. Easy enough with a healthy person who suddenly gets Covid19. It gets more difficult with someone who has numerous health issues, if Covid19 is the straw that broke the camels back is that truly a Covid19? If a senior is suffering from a serious life threatening case of the flu and also catches Covid19 before they die which disease killed them? There is no right or wrong way to label such deaths only different ways. After the heat of the moment in the Covid19 crisis we will have the statics on seniors death over several years. We can then compare that to what we would expect for deaths compared to historical pre-Covid19 stats and tease out how many additional deaths we had. Before then it is all opinion and not hard facts.

Quote: Pacomartin

This article is sobering news as we come out of quarantine.

Sweden kept public life as “normal” as possible, the overarching theory being that there is no way to suppress the coronavirus until a vaccine is approved and widely available. As time has gone on the numbers don’t seem to have borne out this strategy, as Sweden is seeing more deaths from the virus than it might have otherwise. Conspicuously, in the past week, based on a rolling seven-day average, Sweden currently has the highest per capita mortality rate in Europe, having overtaken the U.K., Italy and Belgium. In recent weeks, as deaths have decreased significantly in most other European countries, Sweden’s numbers have remained flat. The death rate is notable, because Sweden has a relatively low population density, a disproportionate number of single households, and low rates of chronic conditions known to be risk factors for severe Covid-19 illness and death.

Sweden’s Gamble On Coronavirus: Has It Paid Off?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/05/23/swedens-gamble-on-coronavirus-has-it-paid-off/#1304442b2dcd

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell (R) of the Public Health Agency of Sweden speaks during a news ... [+] TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
In response to the coronavirus pandemic, instead of imposing a lockdown like most of the rest of the world, Sweden took a different, controversial route. By now, anyone who’s paying attention knows the narrative. The Swedish authorities placed responsibility for risk mitigation on individuals and businesses.

To this end, the government issued guidelines on how individuals could help flatten the curve by hand washing, physical distancing, and avoiding non-essential travel. Residents were asked to work from home as much as possible. And the elderly were told to stay at home, and avoid close contact with others. Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, but schools that cater to children under 16 remained open. Bars, restaurants, and gyms also stayed open, though with social distancing rules in place.

In short, Sweden kept public life as “normal” as possible, the overarching theory being that there is no way to suppress the coronavirus until a vaccine is approved and widely available. As time has gone on the numbers don’t seem to have borne out this strategy, as Sweden is seeing more deaths from the virus than it might have otherwise.

A number of countries in Europe and elsewhere have been successful at suppressing the coronavirus by pursuing very strict lockdowns, coupled with high rates of testing, isolation of cases, and contact tracing. These include, among others, Austria, Greece, New Zealand, Norway, and Portugal. These countries have achieved both substantially reduced numbers of cases and low death rates, significantly better outcomes than Sweden, which in the past 10 days has seen its mortality rate climb to the top of the table in Europe.

Sweden’s chief state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who has been a leading spokesperson for the country’s strategy, counters by maintaining the Swedish approach works better over time because it’s easier to maintain. “Locking people up at home won’t work in the longer term,” Tegnell said.

Undoubtedly, a major challenge looms when countries that have successfully thwarted the virus through lockdowns open up their economies.

Initially, it was thought that Sweden’s relatively relaxed policy would allow for some exposure to the novel coronavirus, which in turn could build immunity among the population. As a by-product - though purportedly not as an intentional policy - this could lead to herd immunity. This is when a high proportion of the population becomes immune to a particular infection, such as SARS-CoV-2. Generally, herd immunity is achieved when at least 60% of the population has been infected, the caveat being that having antibodies doesn’t necessarily imply immunity.

There have been multiple government claims made about when the population in the Stockholm area would reach herd immunity, presumably based on modeled extrapolations. In April, the Swedish Public Health Agency estimated that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1st. However, the Agency had to withdraw the report which contained the model estimates due to faulty calculations.

In mid May, Professor Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist, asserted that Stockholm will reach “herd immunity” by June. He didn’t specify what percentage of the population would need to have been infected to reach this milestone.

A few days later, however, on May 21st, it was revealed by independent modelers in Sweden that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control the coronavirus, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had been exposed to the virus by late April. This percentage is actually lower than estimates from several of the hardest hit cities in the world, such as Wuhan, Madrid, and New York, all of which were under lockdown. Moreover, it’s estimated that between 4%-7% of Sweden’s population has been infected to date. This is not materially different from country-wide estimates for France and Spain, two nations that imposed harsh lockdowns.

As of Friday, May 22nd, 3,925 people have died from Covid-19 in Sweden, a country with a population of 10 million. Neighbors Denmark, Finland and Norway - each with populations about half of Sweden’s - have recorded death tolls of 561, 306 and 235, respectively.

The number of confirmed cases in Sweden stood at 32,809 on May 22nd, between three and five times higher than neighboring countries. But, it’s likely the Swedish figure vastly undercounts the real number of infections given that the country’s testing rate is remarkably low compared to Western European countries and the U.S.

Calculated over the entire time period of the pandemic, Sweden’s death rate has been about average among Western countries, though many times higher than its Scandinavian neighbors, and also higher than the U.S.

Conspicuously, in the past week, based on a rolling seven-day average, Sweden currently has the highest per capita mortality rate in Europe, having overtaken the U.K., Italy and Belgium. In recent weeks, as deaths have decreased significantly in most other European countries, Sweden’s numbers have remained flat.

The death rate is notable, because Sweden has a relatively low population density, a disproportionate number of single households, and low rates of chronic conditions known to be risk factors for severe Covid-19 illness and death.

The relatively small percentage of Stockholm residents with antibodies and the comparatively high death rate do cast doubt on Sweden’s policy. Though as a whole the Swedish population sacrificed less than others in the last two months, that hasn’t given the country a leg up in terms of defeating the virus. Moreover, a comparatively open economy hasn’t translated into economic benefits for Swedes. The Swedish economy is contracting at a similar rate to the rest of Europe. For a country as dependent on international trade and finance as Sweden, the recession is mostly a function of the European and global economic recession.

In many ways Sweden and much of the rest of the world are at present in a similar position vis-à-vis the coronavirus. Whether having opted for a stringent confinement policy, a lighter version of lockdown, or a more lenient approach like Sweden's, for the time being countries must rely on development of treatments for the critically ill, in addition to continued physical distancing, hygiene, face coverings, and contact tracing, until there is an effective vaccine.

Joshua Cohen

Quote: Pacomartin

This article is sobering news as we come out of quarantine.

Sweden kept public life as “normal” as possible, the overarching theory being that there is no way to suppress the coronavirus until a vaccine is approved and widely available. As time has gone on the numbers don’t seem to have borne out this strategy, as Sweden is seeing more deaths from the virus than it might have otherwise. Conspicuously, in the past week, based on a rolling seven-day average, Sweden currently has the highest per capita mortality rate in Europe, having overtaken the U.K., Italy and Belgium. In recent weeks, as deaths have decreased significantly in most other European countries, Sweden’s numbers have remained flat. The death rate is notable, because Sweden has a relatively low population density, a disproportionate number of single households, and low rates of chronic conditions known to be risk factors for severe Covid-19 illness and death.

Sweden’s Gamble On Coronavirus: Has It Paid Off?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/05/23/swedens-gamble-on-coronavirus-has-it-paid-off/#1304442b2dcd

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell (R) of the Public Health Agency of Sweden speaks during a news ... [+] TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
In response to the coronavirus pandemic, instead of imposing a lockdown like most of the rest of the world, Sweden took a different, controversial route. By now, anyone who’s paying attention knows the narrative. The Swedish authorities placed responsibility for risk mitigation on individuals and businesses.

To this end, the government issued guidelines on how individuals could help flatten the curve by hand washing, physical distancing, and avoiding non-essential travel. Residents were asked to work from home as much as possible. And the elderly were told to stay at home, and avoid close contact with others. Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, but schools that cater to children under 16 remained open. Bars, restaurants, and gyms also stayed open, though with social distancing rules in place.

In short, Sweden kept public life as “normal” as possible, the overarching theory being that there is no way to suppress the coronavirus until a vaccine is approved and widely available. As time has gone on the numbers don’t seem to have borne out this strategy, as Sweden is seeing more deaths from the virus than it might have otherwise.

A number of countries in Europe and elsewhere have been successful at suppressing the coronavirus by pursuing very strict lockdowns, coupled with high rates of testing, isolation of cases, and contact tracing. These include, among others, Austria, Greece, New Zealand, Norway, and Portugal. These countries have achieved both substantially reduced numbers of cases and low death rates, significantly better outcomes than Sweden, which in the past 10 days has seen its mortality rate climb to the top of the table in Europe.

Sweden’s chief state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who has been a leading spokesperson for the country’s strategy, counters by maintaining the Swedish approach works better over time because it’s easier to maintain. “Locking people up at home won’t work in the longer term,” Tegnell said.

Undoubtedly, a major challenge looms when countries that have successfully thwarted the virus through lockdowns open up their economies.

Initially, it was thought that Sweden’s relatively relaxed policy would allow for some exposure to the novel coronavirus, which in turn could build immunity among the population. As a by-product - though purportedly not as an intentional policy - this could lead to herd immunity. This is when a high proportion of the population becomes immune to a particular infection, such as SARS-CoV-2. Generally, herd immunity is achieved when at least 60% of the population has been infected, the caveat being that having antibodies doesn’t necessarily imply immunity.

There have been multiple government claims made about when the population in the Stockholm area would reach herd immunity, presumably based on modeled extrapolations. In April, the Swedish Public Health Agency estimated that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1st. However, the Agency had to withdraw the report which contained the model estimates due to faulty calculations.

In mid May, Professor Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist, asserted that Stockholm will reach “herd immunity” by June. He didn’t specify what percentage of the population would need to have been infected to reach this milestone.

A few days later, however, on May 21st, it was revealed by independent modelers in Sweden that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control the coronavirus, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had been exposed to the virus by late April. This percentage is actually lower than estimates from several of the hardest hit cities in the world, such as Wuhan, Madrid, and New York, all of which were under lockdown. Moreover, it’s estimated that between 4%-7% of Sweden’s population has been infected to date. This is not materially different from country-wide estimates for France and Spain, two nations that imposed harsh lockdowns.

As of Friday, May 22nd, 3,925 people have died from Covid-19 in Sweden, a country with a population of 10 million. Neighbors Denmark, Finland and Norway - each with populations about half of Sweden’s - have recorded death tolls of 561, 306 and 235, respectively.

The number of confirmed cases in Sweden stood at 32,809 on May 22nd, between three and five times higher than neighboring countries. But, it’s likely the Swedish figure vastly undercounts the real number of infections given that the country’s testing rate is remarkably low compared to Western European countries and the U.S.

Calculated over the entire time period of the pandemic, Sweden’s death rate has been about average among Western countries, though many times higher than its Scandinavian neighbors, and also higher than the U.S.

Conspicuously, in the past week, based on a rolling seven-day average, Sweden currently has the highest per capita mortality rate in Europe, having overtaken the U.K., Italy and Belgium. In recent weeks, as deaths have decreased significantly in most other European countries, Sweden’s numbers have remained flat.

The death rate is notable, because Sweden has a relatively low population density, a disproportionate number of single households, and low rates of chronic conditions known to be risk factors for severe Covid-19 illness and death.

The relatively small percentage of Stockholm residents with antibodies and the comparatively high death rate do cast doubt on Sweden’s policy. Though as a whole the Swedish population sacrificed less than others in the last two months, that hasn’t given the country a leg up in terms of defeating the virus. Moreover, a comparatively open economy hasn’t translated into economic benefits for Swedes. The Swedish economy is contracting at a similar rate to the rest of Europe. For a country as dependent on international trade and finance as Sweden, the recession is mostly a function of the European and global economic recession.

In many ways Sweden and much of the rest of the world are at present in a similar position vis-à-vis the coronavirus. Whether having opted for a stringent confinement policy, a lighter version of lockdown, or a more lenient approach like Sweden's, for the time being countries must rely on development of treatments for the critically ill, in addition to continued physical distancing, hygiene, face coverings, and contact tracing, until there is an effective vaccine.

Joshua Cohen

Quote: Mission146

Coronavirus-(!?) v. God-0

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5ec60a00c5b6dfc078e0f7ee?ncid=engmodushpmg00000003&fbclid=IwAR3TyigicWZgN5IR2Y8YGHqI-54lYnIcVafse9tRuM4PvJkMaKvcJ5fdIoE

Quote: AZDuffman

Sure I am. Look around, people are standing up against the lockdowns all over. What I do not get is why it is so divided among political lines. Liberals are the ones preferring to be locked down. Conservatives want to get back to work and on with life. Why?

Quote: AZDuffman

Those cops are to be commended, they are oath keepers not oath breakers. Nobody is being harmed and no "victim" to the "crime." We need to see more and more of this. Those still favoring lockdowns are on the wrong side of this now.