Trump vs Hillary 2016

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June 14th, 2016 at 11:31:16 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12535
Quote: Evenbob
Who's laughing now. If this was Oct 20th, I
would be paying attention. It's June 14th.


We learned in 2012 that you will only be paying attention on Oct 20th if the polls and betting markets show you what you want to see.

Otherwise, you will just bury your head in the sand until election day, and disappear for a few months afterwards.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
June 14th, 2016 at 11:33:19 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: ams288
We learned in 2012 that you will only be paying attention on Oct 20th if the polls and betting markets show you what you want to see.

Otherwise, you will just bury your head in the sand until election day, and disappear for a few months afterwards.


Come now. If Trump's supporters want to hang themselves, the polite thing to do is give them some rope and get out of the way.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
June 14th, 2016 at 11:36:00 AM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11803
Quote: Evenbob
Oh no, was the election today and I missed
it? Oh, it's a little under 5 months away.

I'm not doing this dance again, like we did
last summer. This time last year members
of congress and the press were falling to
the floor, laughing their asses off that that
'clown' Trump was even in the race. They
laughed and laughed all summer, the bookies
had Trump at hundreds to one odds. I lost
track of how many well known expert political
hacks declared that Trump would never be
the nominee.

Who's laughing now. If this was Oct 20th, I
would be paying attention. It's June 14th.


Translation
If Trump were even or ahead, the polls are important to EB
If Trump is behind, polls are meaningless to EB
lol
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
June 14th, 2016 at 11:38:00 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12535
Quote: terapined
Translation
If Trump were even or ahead, the polls are important to EB
If Trump is behind, polls are meaningless to EB
lol


Yes - remember last month when Trump was briefly ahead in the national polls.... EB was highlighting every single one.

Hillary has taken back her lead and now polls don't matter anymore.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
June 14th, 2016 at 11:39:41 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Quote: Nareed
How are the betting odds determined?


Supply and demand. Same as any stock.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
June 14th, 2016 at 11:44:06 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Quote: ams288
There was poll showing Hillary and Trump TIED in Utah, the reddest state in America.

(Utah may be an outlier in this election though - Mormons really seem to hate Trump).


Some in Utah say "Utah is a red state, not a red-necked state." As mostly members of a minority religion in the country, they may have been offended at all Trump's attacks on Muslims. They certainly have been the victims of such bigotry in their history.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
June 14th, 2016 at 11:44:09 AM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25011
Quote: terapined
Translation
If Trump were even or ahead, the polls are important to EB
If Trump is behind, polls are meaningless to EB
lol


But Trump is doing very well in the polls.
Just weeks ago Hillary was beating him
by 20 points, now in most of them it's
a statistical dead heat. He's doing very
well indeed. And this far out it really
doesn't mean anything. Hillary hasn't
been indicted yet, or even interviewed
by the head of the FBI. And they just
opened a 2nd investigation last week.
We have all that to look forward to.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
June 14th, 2016 at 12:00:06 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12535
Here's an article on that Utah poll:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/13/this-new-poll-utah-poll-is-amazingly-bad-for-donald-trump/

Trump & Hillary are tied at 35%, Gary Johnson gets 13%

Do I think Hillary could win Utah? Doubtful.

But it'll be interesting to see if maybe she'll have a campaign stop or two there to make Trump play defense in a state that Republicans usually win by 30 points.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
June 14th, 2016 at 1:29:53 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Wizard
Supply and demand. Same as any stock.


How is that different from vote intentions in this case? Presumably since the betting is taking place outside the US, and is open to people who can't vote in the election.

Regardless, what's a good price for Clinton?
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
June 14th, 2016 at 4:17:42 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12535
New Bloomberg poll: Clinton 49%, Trump 37%

Can you imagine if the results were flipped? EB would be doing backflips of joy. Polls would matter to him then. ;)
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman