Issue for the 2020s -- fertility rate
August 21st, 2020 at 1:00:36 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Yes, that is consistent with the "median line"
Speculative, but still very reasonable.
Also speculative, but will the pace of building new structures increase? In 2008, developers around the world built a grand total of four “supertall” skyscrapers, a term that refers to buildings that shoot 1,000 feet or more into the air. Fast forward 10 years later, and that number has more than quadrupled. In 2018, developers built more tall buildings than any other year in history–a grand total of 18. I hated that movie Elysium where the rich all live in giant wheel in space, but you never know. Is it really that different from Monaco? |
August 21st, 2020 at 1:05:02 PM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
Because too many people think socialism works. Or that it will work if only "the right people are in charge." No matter how much you point out in places like Cuba, they keep wanting to try it. The President is a fink. |
August 21st, 2020 at 1:14:57 PM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
Supertall is not really great for residential. I am talking all kinds of things all over the nation. Think about the bridges in NYC. You cannot just shut those down without crippling the city. Think about sewer systems in most of the USA. Think of the post-WWII residential construction, IOW, cheap. Think of this every which way. Gary, IN is the perfect example of what I am talking about. Just falling apart and fewer and fewer people to keep it up. Little by little more and more smaller towns will be ghost towns. The interconnectedness of things will be what makes it hard. You cannot just close half a sewer system at least no easily. If we retrench into even denser urban areas is a real question. The President is a fink. |
August 21st, 2020 at 3:25:45 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Ultra dense urban can either be ultra-poor or ultra-rich. Densest community in Europe 261,068 in 4.8 sq mi= 55,000 people/sq mi L'Hospitalet de Llobregat (suburb of Barcelona) 1,628,706 in 22.83 sq mi = 71,341 people/sq mi live in Manhattan Manhattan doubles its population every working day with commuters It's torn down now, but Kowloon Walled city was the most densely populated place on earth. By 1990, the walled city contained 50,000 residents within its (6.4-acre) borders. It was torn down in 1994. Although it was only 1% of a square mile, it's density would have worked out to 5 million people per square mile. |
September 22nd, 2020 at 4:20:57 AM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 | This is not pure fertility rate but an interesting look at Russia. The people seem to have been depressed for 100 years or more now. Could be a reason why so many Russians that get here want to "de-Russianize" as much as possible? The President is a fink. |
September 22nd, 2020 at 12:45:19 PM permalink | |
petroglyph Member since: Aug 3, 2014 Threads: 25 Posts: 6227 | The article doesn't paint Russia out to be the threat that our media does, looks like if we just leave them alone they will dye off by themselves. The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury. GW |
September 22nd, 2020 at 12:55:36 PM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
This is why Piutin has made some of his moves. By mid-century Russia will likely have less population than Iran. I have heard stories about Chinese living across the border in Russia, though no other confirmation. The President is a fink. |
September 22nd, 2020 at 2:14:47 PM permalink | |
petroglyph Member since: Aug 3, 2014 Threads: 25 Posts: 6227 | I watched a Ted talk on the natural migratory sprawl of Chinese northwards, looking for opportunity. That talk suggested lots of migration. This report mentions that there isn't as much migration as the stories in Russian press suggest. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/250172103_Migration_between_China_and_Russia "Historically, migration from China has corresponded to what mainstream theory would lead us to expect. “Pioneers” estab-lish initial outposts. If successful, they are joined by others from the same region, establishing networks. Beyond a certain point, these networks may become self-sustaining, persisting beyond the peak economic benet even as they remain sensitive to changing economic conditions. Although outside the major global migration ows of the late nineteenth and late twentieth centuries (Hatton and Williamson, 2005), Chinese migration to MIGRATION BETWEEN CHINA AND RUSSIA 5Russia has largely conformed to standard patterns: Chinese have sought economic opportunities, and tended to build on networks established by “pioneers” (Pieke et al., 2004).Russian scholars capable of rationally discussing historical examples and current conditions tend to abandon their own solid research when considering the future, focusing instead on the sheer number of Chinese who could potentially migrate to Russia" People are going to move toward their best opportunity, like they've always done. I think Chinese will populate along the BRI, "following the money"? The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury. GW |
September 22nd, 2020 at 4:00:21 PM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
One issue is there is not all that much along that border. Not very hospitable. Time will tell as China has her own demographic issues. The President is a fink. |
January 6th, 2021 at 3:11:42 PM permalink | |
AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 | Interesting video on fertility rate. One important part says millennial fertility rate at the moment is about 1.0. That is South Korea level and a real "WOW!" For Wiz old footage of SS cards being printed up. The President is a fink. |