Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship

October 1st, 2021 at 7:30:01 PM permalink
gamerfreak
Member since: Feb 19, 2018
Threads: 4
Posts: 465
Quote: OnceDear

I am really rooting for a long and devastating recession.

The cost of living over here has increased by 20% in the past year. I am hoping to buy a new house soon and really rather not pay $500k that 1500 sqft ranchers are fetching in this area.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:43:43 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 54
Posts: 8777
Quote: gamerfreak

I am hoping to buy a new house soon and really rather not pay $500k that 1500 sqft ranchers are fetching in this area.

Wait
Real estate is over priced
It cant last
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
October 1st, 2021 at 7:58:25 PM permalink
gamerfreak
Member since: Feb 19, 2018
Threads: 4
Posts: 465
Quote: terapined
Wait
Real estate is over priced
It cant last

We are fairly eager to move, and this waiting game might be years unless we get a nice economic downturn going.

There’s just way too many buyers with cash who are willing to pay obscene prices. I am in a wealthy Philly suburb that is also close to NYC.

I am pretty convinced the outrageous prices in this area are from City folk earning high 6-figures in the city, who now work remote. Those people are snatching up houses at 30%+ over appraisal value and paying cash.

The market doesn’t become this inflated without cash buyers. Mortgage lenders will not let you buy a house for much more than it appraises for.

All this will eventually even out when employers stop paying city wages for remote work, but that adjustment could take years.
October 2nd, 2021 at 3:36:23 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15887
Quote: gamerfreak
We are fairly eager to move, and this waiting game might be years unless we get a nice economic downturn going.

There’s just way too many buyers with cash who are willing to pay obscene prices. I am in a wealthy Philly suburb that is also close to NYC.

I am pretty convinced the outrageous prices in this area are from City folk earning high 6-figures in the city, who now work remote. Those people are snatching up houses at 30%+ over appraisal value and paying cash.

The market doesn’t become this inflated without cash buyers. Mortgage lenders will not let you buy a house for much more than it appraises for.

All this will eventually even out when employers stop paying city wages for remote work, but that adjustment could take years.


Move to Scranton. Way cheaper.
The President is a fink.
October 2nd, 2021 at 5:56:41 AM permalink
Altstates93
Member since: Jan 5, 2021
Threads: 0
Posts: 22
Quote: gamerfreak
We are fairly eager to move, and this waiting game might be years unless we get a nice economic downturn going.

There’s just way too many buyers with cash who are willing to pay obscene prices. I am in a wealthy Philly suburb that is also close to NYC.

I am pretty convinced the outrageous prices in this area are from City folk earning high 6-figures in the city, who now work remote. Those people are snatching up houses at 30%+ over appraisal value and paying cash.

The market doesn’t become this inflated without cash buyers. Mortgage lenders will not let you buy a house for much more than it appraises for.

All this will eventually even out when employers stop paying city wages for remote work, but that adjustment could take years.


I live in the same general area, and also looking to purchase a house.

It seems some leveling has occurred since the feeding frenzy in the spring. Many listings have reduced their asking prices multiple times before going under contract. More houses appear to regularly sell for around their asking price, not way above. While I wouldn't describe the market as sane, it at least appears less insane.

If anything, the gradually increasing interest rates concern me more now.
October 4th, 2021 at 3:13:38 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 230
Posts: 5956
Quote: OnceDear
Would you guys each care to take a $10 even money wager* that an assortment of Mainstream media don't call it with a headline close to 'US in Default' ... for first time ever. I'm thinking a selection of WSJ, UK FT, UK BBC, Reuters as the arbiters of whether technical default has happened.... By say 00:00 11/01/21 GMT


I hate to negotiate so much over a $10 bet, but as long as it can't be qualified with the words like "technical," this is agreeable.

I would say we have been in technical default before, when the government quietly raided federal employee retirement funds to make Social Security payments. Of course, they paid them back, but they basically made payments with somebody else's money, because they were in "technical default."

I'm okay with using headlines as a measurement stick, but I'm looking for something to happen that has not happened in other shutdowns since and including the 90's.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
October 4th, 2021 at 4:13:21 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15887
Quote: Wizard
Of course, they paid them back, but they basically made payments with somebody else's money, because they were in "technical default."


Everything the government does is somebody else's money.

A serious question. The Gold Window has been temporarily closed for 50 years now. Could that be considered a "default" as it clearly was refusal to pay a debt.
The President is a fink.
October 4th, 2021 at 4:35:28 AM permalink
OnceDear
Administrator
Member since: Nov 21, 2017
Threads: 8
Posts: 1163
Quote: Wizard
I hate to negotiate so much over a $10 bet, but as long as it can't be qualified with the words like "technical," this is agreeable.

I would say we have been in technical default before, when the government quietly raided federal employee retirement funds to make Social Security payments. Of course, they paid them back, but they basically made payments with somebody else's money, because they were in "technical default."

I'm okay with using headlines as a measurement stick, but I'm looking for something to happen that has not happened in other shutdowns since and including the 90's.
we won't squabble. If the headlines scream US defaults on debt or similar, and we can clearly see something beyond the usual exceptional measures, it will be clear. If we don't see that clearly then I'll concede. There's always a chance we will call it a tie by mutual consent.
October 4th, 2021 at 6:21:08 AM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 21
Posts: 3156
I am willing to arbitrate this massive bet!

I think the Dems will somehow prevent the Default. I like the trillion dollar coin ploy.
October 4th, 2021 at 7:05:54 AM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 11
Posts: 2980
Quote: SOOPOO
I am willing to arbitrate this massive bet!

I think the Dems will somehow prevent the Default. I like the trillion dollar coin ploy.


For your standard 10% fee SOOPOO? ;-)
"but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin