Israeli conflict

Quote: Gandler

Which prediction did I get wrong, I actually have a pretty solid record for Trump predictions, including his two elections wins and his 1 loss, and his strike this weekend.

But, I hope I am wrong on this front. We do not need a war with Iran.

But, here is my prediction for this case: Iran is going to block the straight of Hormuz, U.S. is going to attempt to clear it, a ship is going to get attacked, Trump is going to act macho and declare that we along with Israel are at war with Iran.

We probably will mostly do airstrikes at first, it will transition into special ops small scale operations, and then into a full out ground war. It will be a long, nasty war, Iran is geographically difficult, it is a basically a natural fortress, and over 3 times the size of Iraq, it will not be easy or fast.

I hope I am wrong, but we will see.

My guess is under the "peace and economy" President we will end up with the nastiest war and messiest economy in the last 20 years.

Wow, Nostradamus, your predictions were sure "spot on".

Quote: Gandler

It is definitely less safe. If the straight gets contested this week, economy is going to be disrupted. Iran has many terror cells in the U.S. that have been waiting decades for something like this for activation.

My prediction is gas prices (and hence almost everything else,) will spike over the next two weeks. Then in about 2-3 weeks (I feel like July 10th is the date, somewhere around there anyway.) when the next batch of big tariffs go into effect another big spike on everything. This is going to be a very chaotic and expensive summer between prices and terror attacks.

We are probably entering the most unsafe and expensive summer in at least 20 years.

I hope I am wrong, this is not something that I will be thrilled about being correct on (especially because I had quite a bit of travel that I desired to do, and depending on how the next two weeks go, I may decide to avoid travel for some time.)

More accurate predictions from our resident prognosticator. LOL

Quote: fleaswatter

Wow, Nostradamus, your predictions were sure "spot on".

I am very glad I was wrong about the 2nd half, but we came unnecessarily close to the brink for no reason.

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Israel is taking a lot of heat for its treatment of Gazans in this country and elsewhere

on Oct. 7 Hamas murdered 1,200 Israelis and took many more captive

it was Israel's 911

- not as many died as in 911 but Israel is a much smaller country than the U.S. and the % of the population who died is much higher

after 911 the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and killed about 176,000 and per google chrome AI - millions died from other reasons similar to those who have died in the Gaza conflict

Google AI estimates the combined direct and indirect death toll in Afghanistan to be between 4.5 and 4.7 million

but there was comparatively very little criticism of the U.S. for its invasion and the consequences


AI Overview

The U.S. invasion and subsequent 20-year war in Afghanistan resulted in a devastating human toll, with estimates from Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs stating over 176,000 direct deaths in Afghanistan alone, including 46,319 civilians, 69,095 Afghan military and police, and 52,893 opposition fighters. Including indirect deaths from the war's impact on infrastructure and society, the total death toll in Afghanistan is estimated to be much higher. In total, the war caused the deaths of over 2,300 U.S. military personnel, 3,917 U.S. contractors, and over 1,000 allied troops.
Direct Deaths in Afghanistan
Civilians: 46,319, although this figure is likely an underestimate.
Afghan Military and Police: 69,095.
Opposition Fighters: At least 52,893.
Direct Deaths for U.S. and Allied Forces
U.S. Military Personnel: 2,324.
U.S. Contractors: 3,917.
Allied Troops: 1,144.

Indirect Deaths

The conflict led to significant indirect deaths in Afghanistan by causing destruction to infrastructure, healthcare, food, water, and the overall economy, with the Costs of War Project estimating that millions more died from these consequences.

Total Direct & Indirect Deaths

The combined direct and indirect death toll in Afghanistan and the surrounding region from post-9/11 wars is estimated to be between 4.5 and 4.7 million people, according to the Costs of War Project.

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Many people died in Afghanistan and many innocent people suffered. The difference is, the U.S. was trying to help the people there build a safe country. We were not trying to take over Afghanistan or annex the land. Intent does matter.

Quote: Gandler

Many people died in Afghanistan and many innocent people suffered. The difference is, the U.S. was trying to help the people there build a safe country. We were not trying to take over Afghanistan or annex the land. Intent does matter.

Correct. Israel’s intent is to prevent Hamas from ever slaughtering thousands more Israelis at a music festival. Seems like a good ‘intent’ to me.

Quote: Gandler

Many people died in Afghanistan and many innocent people suffered. The difference is, the U.S. was trying to help the people there build a safe country. Intent does matter.

False

the invasion had nothing to do with wanting to help the Afghani people

the U.S. invaded Afghanistan as a retaliation for 911 and to prevent future 911s

The stated goal was to dismantle al-Qaeda, which had executed the attacks under the leadership of Osama bin Laden, and to deny Islamist militants a safe base of operations in Afghanistan by toppling the ruling Taliban government.

if, and that's a very big IF, the life of Afghani citizens improved afterwards that was a tangential thing - it was not a goal of the invasion

now, the Taliban is back in Afghanistan and the U.S. won't be going back there to "help the people" unless they feel the re-emergence of the Taliban poses a direct threat to the U.S.

the intent of the U.S. in Afghanistan was not very different from Israel's intent

from the link:

"Two years ago Tuesday, Taliban fighters poured into Afghanistan's capital and the army melted away and President Ashraf Ghani fled for his life. The country that the U.S. and NATO spent nearly 20 years fighting to build was suddenly controlled again by the same Taliban whom the U.S. deposed after 9/11."


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/life-in-afghanistan-remains-dire-2-years-after-collapse-of-u-s-backed-government

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Quote: PotPie

False

the invasion had nothing to do with wanting to help the Afghani people

the U.S. invaded Afghanistan as a retaliation for 911 and to prevent future 911s

The stated goal was to dismantle al-Qaeda, which had executed the attacks under the leadership of Osama bin Laden, and to deny Islamist militants a safe base of operations in Afghanistan by toppling the ruling Taliban government.

if, and that's a very big IF, the life of Afghani citizens improved afterwards that was a tangential thing - it was not a goal of the invasion

now, the Taliban is back in Afghanistan and the U.S. won't be going back there to "help the people" unless they feel the re-emergence of the Taliban poses a direct threat to the U.S.

the intent of the U.S. in Afghanistan was not very different from Israel's intent

from the link:

"Two years ago Tuesday, Taliban fighters poured into Afghanistan's capital and the army melted away and President Ashraf Ghani fled for his life. The country that the U.S. and NATO spent nearly 20 years fighting to build was suddenly controlled again by the same Taliban whom the U.S. deposed after 9/11."


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/life-in-afghanistan-remains-dire-2-years-after-collapse-of-u-s-backed-government

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The initial goal was the remove the Taliban from power and disrupt Al Queda bases. This was achieved quickly. The project then changed to rebuilding Afghanistan into a progressive democracy, which turned into a long project.

At no point was the U.S. trying to annex or take over Afghanistan. Everything was about letting them build up their own government.

Quote: Gandler

The initial goal was the remove the Taliban from power and disrupt Al Queda bases. This was achieved quickly. The project then changed to rebuilding Afghanistan into a progressive democracy, which turned into a long project.

you originally stated that the "intent" of the U.S. was to "help the people"

that is false

it only morphed into rebuilding because of the guilt that was felt because the war totally destroyed the country

now the Taliban is back and has been for 2 years

the U.S. won't be going back to "help the people"

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Whatever the true intent, the USA clearly FAILED / Lost in Afghanistan just as it FAILED / LOST in Vietnam.

What a waste of resources and American lives, and all for ... what, exactly?

Look at us now, a country divided; perhaps had we used the monies spent on 'Nam and Afghanistan to address our social and societal ills we'd be doing OK finally, but we didn't and we're most definitely NOT OK.